Eu Membership Referendum

[tartandon]

Imagine this scenario:

Westminster 2015 Election

• Tories win an overall majority as Labour crumble
• SNP have a majority North of the border.
• Tories hold a referendum on the EU
• UK votes to exit EU
• Majority of people in Scotland vote to remain

Here are my questions on the above scenario for those of you clued up on EU and constitutional matters.

• As the major party in Scotland, could SNP call a UK referendum?
• If Scotland won this referendum, could we split from UK?
• Would we be in a position where the EU look on Scotland as just continuing the UK membership but under a different flag?
• Would EU law ironically be on the side of Scotland, thus backing the case for us to have a referendum, no matter how much the Tories complain?

[exile]

I don't know but the prospect of an English parliament could increase the likelihood of England voting to leave the UK (and so EU) leaving the rest to our own devices...

[Jie Bie]

As much as I'd like it to happen I don't think England will vote to leave the EU.

For a start, the question will probably be framed "Do you want the UK to remain in the EU?", in an attempt to copy the positivity of our Yes campaign.

Secondly, big-business and the media (especially the BBC) will all line up behind remaining in the EU. Expect plenty of job loss scare stories. (Sound familiar?).

Thirdly, UKIP only managed 27% of the vote in this years Euro elections where the turnout was less than 35%.

[exile]

Imagine this scenario:

Westminster 2015 Election

• Tories win an overall majority as Labour crumble
• SNP have a majority North of the border.
• Tories hold a referendum on the EU
• UK votes to exit EU
• Majority of people in Scotland vote to remain

Here are my questions on the above scenario for those of you clued up on EU and constitutional matters.

• As the major party in Scotland, could SNP call a UK referendum?
• If Scotland won this referendum, could we split from UK?
• Would we be in a position where the EU look on Scotland as just continuing the UK membership but under a different flag?
• Would EU law ironically be on the side of Scotland, thus backing the case for us to have a referendum, no matter how much the Tories complain?

Thinking about this a bit more.

To your scenario, let's add in:

• UKIP do well in Gen Election, on the back of stoking The English Question, and voters deserting labour
• UKIP egg on Tories to press for a tough deal on Europe
• Dave goes to EU to make a deal, but EU sense his weakness and doesn't give concessions
• They simply say, put up or shut up, daring him to leave
• Dave comes back from Brussels with a weak deal or no deal
• The 3 main Westminster parties struggle to sell the benefits of the Union to people
• Like the UK union, but without even the patriotic passion
• UKIP learn the positive lessons of Yes campaign, but also backed by vocal sections of the media
• Add Boris in to the mix somewhere
• Shock vote to exit EU could happen

In the circumstances, could a new Scottish referendum called;

this time the Yes side would ironically have

• arguments for strength and security of the larger Union (EU)
• staying with the larger trading bloc of EU,
• being internationalist and not 'narrow nationalist'
• also, being biggest English speaking nation in the EU

I don't know about currency though... could Scotland have a currency union with rUK and also be in EU? If so, the rUK might welcome a CU and do a deal?

[wembley67lisbon]

Percentages of folk wanting to leave would be similiar.

Tory arseholes up here think Britain Britain Britain, all conquering, should be able to stand alone, badger immigration. There's plenty of them about.

[scotlad]

Thinking about this a bit more.

To your scenario, let's add in:

• UKIP do well in Gen Election, on the back of stoking The English Question, and voters deserting labour
• UKIP egg on Tories to press for a tough deal on Europe
• Dave goes to EU to make a deal, but EU sense his weakness and doesn't give concessions
• They simply say, put up or shut up, daring him to leave
• Dave comes back from Brussels with a weak deal or no deal
• The 3 main Westminster parties struggle to sell the benefits of the Union to people
• Like the UK union, but without even the patriotic passion
• UKIP learn the positive lessons of Yes campaign, but also backed by vocal sections of the media
• Add Boris in to the mix somewhere
• Shock vote to exit EU could happen

In the circumstances, could a new Scottish referendum called;

this time the Yes side would ironically have

• arguments for strength and security of the larger Union (EU)
• staying with the larger trading bloc of EU,
• being internationalist and not 'narrow nationalist'
• also, being biggest English speaking nation in the EU

I don't know about currency though... could Scotland have a currency union with rUK and also be in EU? If so, the rUK might welcome a CU and do a deal?

I'm not sure about the currency either, but under that scenario the 'you won't be in the EU' scare story would be rendered useless because we would be heading out of the EU anyway.

Plus if Scotland votes to remain in the EU the pro (Scottish) independence side could point to that as another example of where our aspirations differ from rUK.

Percentages of folk wanting to leave would be similiar.

Tory arseholes up here think Britain Britain Britain, all conquering, should be able to stand alone, badger immigration. There's plenty of them about.

If you think it is bad up here it is nothing compared to the strength of feeling in the south east of England, and it is not died in the wool Tories who feel that way. Immigration is a massive issue down there. That part of Britain is heaving with folk - its population is nearly three times that of Scotland's - so in that respect I can understand why.

I have a cousin who is a political journalist in London (he was up here the other day for the referendum) and he is certain that England will vote to leave the EU if we get the referendum on EU membership.

I agree with Jie Bie though in that the state - who will back a No vote, once again - will adopt similar tactics to those used in our referendum: scare stories, media bias (the BBC at least), personal attacks on pro-secession politicians.

[Guest Extreme0]

I can tell you that if Scotland votes to remain in the EU, then the EU will back us up. It's one thing losing a member state, it's another to deny a state to join the EU after being forced too leave the EU.

We may have to deal with the Euro nonsense though...which could be something that be used against us but hopefully if we do get the Backing of the EU then I am hoping that the UK will not be doing anything like denying our referendum.

[exile]

I can tell you that if Scotland votes to remain in the EU, then the EU will back us up. It's one thing losing a member state, it's another to deny a state to join the EU after being forced too leave the EU.

We may have to deal with the Euro nonsense though...which could be something that be used against us but hopefully if we do get the Backing of the EU then I am hoping that the UK will not be doing anything like denying our referendum.

You mean if there is a majority of Scottish will to stay in EU, within the UK poll?

That would be fun if it also applied to Wales and NI, and we 3 could all stay in

Or... what if the England was a narrow 'out' vote but UK as a whole was 'in'. Then England would be frustrated by its pesky smaller siblings shackling it to the EU, and could ask for independence from us and EU.

[Ally Bongo]

Or... what if the England was a narrow 'out' vote but UK as a whole was 'in'. Then England would be frustrated by its pesky smaller siblings shackling it to the EU, and could ask for independence from us and EU.

As has been proven they need us for our Oil and Gas never mind the rest of our economy - wont happen

[exile]

As has been proven they need us for our Oil and Gas never mind the rest of our economy - wont happen

Maybe, but the leadership of the 'Exit' campaign could assure the voters of England that they were already subsiding Scotland and the oil was running out anyway. Then the leadership of the 'pro EU' camp would need to keep schtum or admit that there was lots of oil under Scottish seas.

All very hypothetical of course....

[tartandon]

You mean if there is a majority of Scottish will to stay in EU, within the UK poll?

That would be fun if it also applied to Wales and NI, and we 3 could all stay in

Or... what if the England was a narrow 'out' vote but UK as a whole was 'in'. Then England would be frustrated by its pesky smaller siblings shackling it to the EU, and could ask for independence from us and EU.

It would be even better if Scotland & Wales voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU while England & NI voted to exit. I've included NI in this because after the scenes of Friday night I've had enough of the Loyalist shite. I wouldn't want us having to deal with the NI situation.

I'd welcome a stomping majority No vote in the EU referendum, buoyed by the vote south of the border, with Scotland voting to stay in the EU.

If the EU vote is to be a catalyst for an independence referendum, then it is only with a UK majority to seced that we could force another independence vote in Scotland.

Could you imagine Scotland and Wales as EU members with the English looking in from the outside? It would be bloody priceless!!!!

[AlfieMoon]

I've been thinking about this and not sure exactly how the EU vote would go. We would have the same mobilisation of the UK state and big business against leaving the EU. At the same time, there is a UKIP momentum building and people buying into that. Particularly south of the border. It would be interesting to say the least.

[tartandon]

The first stage is making sure that Labour don't get any seats up here. With little or no support up here they have no chance of winning the Westminster election. That would mean that the Tories would be in power and Cameron would call the referendum. Then we need to make sure that we vote to stay in the EU, and hope the English vote to exit.

[Guest flumax]

There is absolutely no chance an EU referendum will get a big turn out and those that do will be outs.

[Ally Bongo]

We have to make sure that people do not buy into the "vote Labour to stop the Tories " line that will be drummed up before the next GE

[Armchair Bob]

I don't think the English will be dumb enough to quit the EU.

Mind you I didn't think Scots would be dumb enough to stay shackled to Westminster.

As last week has shown, whoever owns the media will win.

[Guest flumax]

We have to make sure that people do not buy into the "vote Labour to stop the Tories " line that will be drummed up before the next GE

this argument won't work any more seeing that Scottish MPs will be second class with fewer mp rights. Our MPs will have more days off from attending and no doubt they'll be paid the same.

Labour will have no ability to stop torys.

But as we've seen, if the media repeat it, it will be believed

[thorbotnic]

It would be even better if Scotland & Wales voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU while England & NI voted to exit. I've included NI in this because after the scenes of Friday night I've had enough of the Loyalist shite. I wouldn't want us having to deal with the NI situation.

I'd welcome a stomping majority No vote in the EU referendum, buoyed by the vote south of the border, with Scotland voting to stay in the EU.

If the EU vote is to be a catalyst for an independence referendum, then it is only with a UK majority to seced that we could force another independence vote in Scotland.

Could you imagine Scotland and Wales as EU members with the English looking in from the outside? It would be bloody priceless!!!!

I can see England, Wales or NI having a strong argument should they vote one way in a referendum and the rest of the UK vote the other, but Scotland is the only nation which has actively confirmed it wants to be a part of the UK. Not getting the preferred Scottish result all the time in UK-wide votes is an inevitable part of what you have chosen.

Edited September 21, 2014 by thorbotnic

[exile]

Some tables for EU voting intentions 'by nation' here:

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/divided-by-europe-the-uk-nations-and-the-eu-referendum/

Suggests a couple of scenarios for different nations voting different ways:

If England votes 54% to leave (the most Eurosceptic poll result), it could be enough to drag an EU-positive Scotland out

If England only votes 51% to leave, a EU-positive Scottish vote could be enough to keep UK in

[exile]

. Not getting the preferred Scottish result all the time in UK-wide votes is an inevitable part of what you have chosen.

But the goalposts have already moved.... Anyone remember Better Together saying vote No to stay in EU?

[Scunnered]

One hopes the Scottish people will join our Union brethren in voting to leave this Neoliberal, and undemocratic boys club.

[exile]

"Stop Scottish independence talk in EU debate" says Brian Monteith, talking about Scottish independence talk in EU debate.

Marvel as a "director of Global Britain and member of Leave.EU" positively froths at the mouth at the prospect of Brexit triggering indyref2.

[scotsman clickbait alert] http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-monteith-stop-scottish-independence-talk-in-eu-debate-1-4003560

Savour the irony of ranting against "fearmongering by EU apologists".... (who would ever fearmonger about the perils of leaving a Union?)

And wash it down with a bitter barrage of Comments that could be mostly straight from 2014.

Edited January 18, 2016 by exile

[McDange]

Will the SNP have something like this in their Holyrood manifesto as a trigger for calling an independence referendum should Scotland be dragged out the EU against our vote?

I doubt very much this will be the scenario though.

[hampden_loon2878]

If the vote were tomorrow i would vote to leave the EU,, its a broken experiment that is not willing to adapt,, i also want or fishing industry back...

[ParisInAKilt]

No chance of a no vote. Who supports it?