Guest flumax Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just noticed that nominations in Aberdeenshire closed today ( https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/local-government-elections-2017/# notice) thought I'd start a thread for the fellow election fans on the board. Somewhere to discuss an upcoming election vote with a date. Not seen list of candidates beyond the two snp in my ward but at this early stage, I reckon my way in Aberdeenshire will be dominated by torys. In my ward 1 each tory snp Libdem independent. Pretty much as you were. Could be a good barometer election for scotref.. Maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 First results in from Shetland Islands 1 SNP 2 independent http://www.shetland.gov.uk/elections/documents/FinalNoticeofUncontestedandNoticeofPoll.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I think the SNP may lose seats in their heartlands whilst they'll clean up in the central belt and west coast. The Tories will do alright, gain a lot of seats in the North East, and cue lots of Ruth on the tele, and Labour will be hammered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Anyone seeing any former SNP councillors, turned down at selection, standing as independents? Two in Midlothian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishcumnock Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 We are challenging the labour cast in stone seats in east ayrshire 1st time we think we can get 2 snp onto the council , 2slab 2snp 1 independent running so far. This is for cumnock area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
min Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Will be interesting to see what happens in my ward - East Garioch. Last time out Fergie Hood - the only SNP candidate - strolled home. He's since defected to Willie Rennie's mob and although he appears to represent the area well, are enough people really going to vote for him again? Two SNP candidates this time round, which is understandable given that the number of elected councillors has been increased from 3 to 4. Prediciton: one each to SNP, Greens, Tories and Libs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 First of all you have to look at the results in 2012. SNP - 425 seats, 32% of 1st preferences. Labour - 394/31% Tories - 115/13% Independents - 196/12% LibDems - 71/7% Green - 14/2% A few things to point out, 2012 was of course before the great surge in support to the SNP post the IndyRef - I know that the SNP won a majority in 2011 at Holyrood, but at the time, the 2012 council elections were being held up as evidence that the SNP's "Honeymoon was over" and we know how that turned out. I'd say the SNP's support is more baked in now than it was in 2011. STV of course delivers a very different result in terms of seat distribution from either FPTP or the Holyrood FPTP/AMS system, its a lot more proportional and fairer. Based on recent elections and current polling, you would expect the SNP to get somewhere around 600 seats this time around - around 50% of the total. There will be for sure, some losses in individual wards, either due to local factors based on individual councillors or on wider national questions, such as in places like Banff and Buchan, however the overall picture should see them have a significant increase in seats. You would also expect Tories to overtake Labour as the second largest party however that shouldn't be taken as a given due to the nature of STV. I think the Tories "victory" in Holyrood has been a bit overstated. An overlooked fact about last years elections is that Labour actually polled a slightly higher in the constituency votes than the Tories - 514,261 against 501,844 but it was in the list where the Tories had a much bigger lead, 524,222 as against 435,919 for Labour. I think the actual picture across the country is very complicated but in general, I think it showed a certain level of tactical voting on both constituencies and the list from Unionist parties. If you look at a lot of the constituency results from 2016 that the SNP were expected to win, you can definitely see that. Under STV, that sort of tactical voting - voting for someone you don't like, to keep out someone you like even less - doesn't really apply in the same way. For example, in a FPTP election, you might be a Labour supporter who doesn't want the SNP to win but you hold your nose and vote Tory because you know that they have the best chance of stopping the SNP. In an STV election, you rank your Labour candidates first, then your Tory candidates and don't rank the SNP or Greens. That way you are doing all you can to stop the SNP getting in but crucially your first preference goes to who you actually support. On that basis I'd expect it to be very close between Labour and the Tories but for one thing. Labour in Scotland and the UK are so completely rubbish at the moment, I can't see why anyone would vote for them. The transfers will be interesting. I don't think anyone will be surprised that SNP transfers will go primarily to the Greens and vice versa and similarly the Unionist parties will transfer between each other. That could see a levelling of seats between Labour and the Tories. I'll make two predictions. Firstly, the SNP will take overall control of Glasgow which is hugely symbolic. Secondly, even though the SNP will make major increases in their seats from 2012 and will be the clear winner it will be spun somehow as a bad night for the SNP and will be a good night for which ever of the two Unionist parties comes second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 hours ago, flumax said: Just noticed that nominations in Aberdeenshire closed today ( https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/local-government-elections-2017/# notice) thought I'd start a thread for the fellow election fans on the board. Somewhere to discuss an upcoming election vote with a date. Not seen list of candidates beyond the two snp in my ward but at this early stage, I reckon my way in Aberdeenshire will be dominated by torys. In my ward 1 each tory snp Libdem independent. Pretty much as you were. Could be a good barometer election for scotref.. Maybe The snp will be hammered in the northeast scotland, the only saving grace will be a low turn out,, banff and buchan area will see a huge shift from snp to tory due to brexit/fishing,, heres hoping it all comes out in the wash regarding the trade off with the fishing before the GE 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 hours ago, Stapes said: Anyone seeing any former SNP councillors, turned down at selection, standing as independents? Two in Midlothian. 2 in banff and buchan,, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapofGlencoe Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 the last time just seemed a bit of a joke to me. Think all of the candidates in the ward were elected (or all bar one, if I remember correctly). Totally pointless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Any loss in SNP seats will send the Yoon Media into meltdown and any gains will go largely unreported. Predict another elecotral hammering for Labour's Scottish Branch - again, probably go largely unreported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The central belt should ask for independence from the unionist North East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said: The central belt should ask for independence from the unionist North East. You taking NE refugees? Please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padre Andrew Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 14 hours ago, Stapes said: Anyone seeing any former SNP councillors, turned down at selection, standing as independents? Two in Midlothian. One in Perth city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckielugger Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Curious question, given the comments about fisher folk in the north east now all voting Tory...just how many fishermen are there? If very few, they can't make much of a difference, if actually loads, then isn't fishing doing pretty well therefore? And as someone who's family hail from Banffshire coast, i am genuinely interested. Also, side question, do 16/17 yo's get a council vote and will they get a ref2 vote and will all EU citizens get a ref2 vote? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, buckielugger said: Curious question, given the comments about fisher folk in the north east now all voting Tory...just how many fishermen are there? If very few, they can't make much of a difference, if actually loads, then isn't fishing doing pretty well therefore? 4000 fishermen, 12000 direct jobs. Nothing on a national level really, but locally in remote coastal communities it is very impressive. Everyone knows someone involved. About 8% of Scottish economy total, so still a big part of the national psyche. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckielugger Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 And should next referendum be a multiple choice? Instead of a simple yes/no. As there are now more than 2 possible futures for Scotland... Stay in UK, as per now and governed by England for evermore Total independence from anyone else Independent from UK and remain a full member state in EU Independent and become like Norway or Switzerland not in EU but in Single Market with free trade and free movement of labour (both of which Scotland would seem to strongly want) A Gordon Brown/LibDem type future, not a sovereign state, still in UK but UK now a federation of separately run countries (is that what they propose?? not clear at all) And maybe one or two other possibilities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, buckielugger said: Also, side question, do 16/17 yo's get a council vote and will they get a ref2 vote and will all EU citizens get a ref2 vote? Yup. Re 16/17. Scotref who knows at this stage. Green amendment proposal for 16/17 and EU last week passed 69-59 in parliament.. But like everything else, up in the air I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckielugger Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, flumax said: 4000 fishermen, 12000 direct jobs. Nothing on a national level really, but locally in remote coastal communities it is very impressive. Everyone knows someone involved. About 8% of Scottish economy total, so still a big part of the national psyche. Actually way more than i realised ! So yes significant. Is French politicians standing anywhere? Christian Allard...really liked him. Very entertaining and of course 30 years or so in fishing industry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, buckielugger said: And should next referendum be a multiple choice? Instead of a simple yes/no. As there are now more than 2 possible futures for Scotland... Stay in UK, as per now and governed by England for evermore Total independence from anyone else Independent from UK and remain a full member state in EU Independent and become like Norway or Switzerland not in EU but in Single Market with free trade and free movement of labour (both of which Scotland would seem to strongly want) A Gordon Brown/LibDem type future, not a sovereign state, still in UK but UK now a federation of separately run countries (is that what they propose?? not clear at all) And maybe one or two other possibilities No. Simple independent Scotland based question.... All these options can be considered and determined by a sovereign independent state and can be returned to at any point in future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, buckielugger said: Actually way more than i realised ! So yes significant. Is French politicians standing anywhere? Christian Allard...really liked him. Very entertaining and of course 30 years or so in fishing industry No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, buckielugger said: Curious question, given the comments about fisher folk in the north east now all voting Tory...just how many fishermen are there? If very few, they can't make much of a difference, if actually loads, then isn't fishing doing pretty well therefore? And as someone who's family hail from Banffshire coast, i am genuinely interested. Also, side question, do 16/17 yo's get a council vote and will they get a ref2 vote and will all EU citizens get a ref2 vote? As has been stated the fishing industry is a shadow of its former self, but the sentiment to the industry is still there, it is a cultural thing as much as anything,,, even if not in the fishing most children grow up setting creels for crab and lobsters down the shore, go out on friends boats to the ripper and to a lesser extent now a days set salmon nets or pick whelks...Also with the pay offs in the oil industry a lot of ex fishermen have returned to the industry the notheast has been solid SNP for 30 years, salmond won the seat from the torys on the back of the industrys greivence toward Westminster, selling away their industry,, now they have a glimmer of hope and its being portrayed that the snp are taking that chance away,, on the surface it would apear that way but scratch the surface and there is multiple layers to why the industry has struggled Theres a lot of crap about foreign quota owners etc that makes my blood boil. Yes aspects of the CFP have been very generous to foreign boats,,but i know of Spanish owned scottish registered vessels who have spent millions of pounds BUYING quota from people who got it free in the first place (the Brits)....its just a total lie and spread by the truly uneducated....the skippers in the North East are some of the greediest, nasty people I have ever met. They are ignorant loud and bullying. They don't give a second thought to hiring cheap foreign labour in order to get more for themselves, but the momentum from brexit is still running and will see the snp count fall while the torys share increase, it will all come out in the wash,, gibralter will ensure the spanish keep their fishing rights along with investment from Peugeot will insure the french hold onto their fishing right,, hopefully once the dust settles the fishermen will realise who has their interests at heart,,, some real loud nasty torys up our way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Had the Libdem candidate at the door. He's my third choice in 4 seat ward. Long standing councillor, wasn't pushy, didn't ask to be first choice, started to explained stv to me (didn't let him go on long). Leaflet was void of snp bad, no to independence, all local stuff. Impressed, looking forward to the husting see how he holds up. As it stands SNP, SNP, LD, Labour, conservative, conservative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuNsTeR Posted April 8, 2017 Share Posted April 8, 2017 Tories are really pushing the council elections ... they are going to try and use it as a block to another Indyref if they do good and we don't get a decent turn out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted April 8, 2017 Share Posted April 8, 2017 Murdo has tweeted this which looks like a smear campaign against the SNP candidates https://mercinon.wordpress.com/2017/04/07/council-elections-2017-part-1-your-handy-guide-to-some-snp-candidates-and-non-candidates/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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