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Council elections


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7 minutes ago, aaid said:

Tories picking up seats in Shettleston and Ferguslie Park from Labour. 

Labour's soft nationalist vote has already gone to the SNP. Now their Unionist vote has gone Tory. Plus I expect the Scottish UKIP vote will have gone blue too.

Tories campaigning purely on a hard Brexit / no referendum ticket is a political masterstroke at the moment. They will hoover up a lot of votes in Scotland that way, many from people not bothered about scrutinising what's under the wrapper.

 

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28 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Apparently so. Sounds like the Tory vote is indeed surging. Not boding well for June 8th...

The key for June 8th will be what the percentages of first preference votes are, across the country and also in individual constituencies, not individual seats won. 

FPTP and STV are very different voting systems.

What we're seeing in the council elections is a repeat of - and possibly an increase - what happened in the 2016 HR election which is that the hard-line Unionist Labour Vote is going to the Tories.  A lot of that vote is traditional working class so it shouldn't be a surprise that they're picking up council seats in some of the places they are.  The surprise is that people in those areas are prepared to vote Tory but that's a whole deeper and bigger question.

 

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4 minutes ago, slasher said:

Who the feck has voted Tory in Motherwell??? ?

Sometimes I despair of this country!

Absolute scumbags

Image result for ravenscraig

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14 minutes ago, glasgow jock said:

The Loyalist / Unionist / OO vote in Scotland is greater than we all think (sadly)

In certain areas indeed, Was always there and Ruth the mooth mobilised it.

 

Here in Borders it'll be the landed and their serfs going back to Tory.

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1 minute ago, mariokempes56 said:

In certain areas indeed, Was always there and Ruth the mooth mobilised it.

 

Here in Borders it'll be the landed and their serfs going back to Tory.

Is the irony not lost on them that not only is she a Catholic but a lesbian as well. How does that square with them?

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The Union's only hope was to turn Scotland into another Northern Ireland - and that is exactly what the Tories have done and are doing.

Hopefully i will live to see the day when they are put on trial for it

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I've said for a while now that the hardline yoon vote will go to the Tories from Labour.  They know labour is dead so they will vote for whoever else backs their precious union.  What is happening is just a coagulation of the yoon vote around one party.  Hell mend them.  They deserve everything they are going to get.

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What will be interesting will be to see the vote numbers when this is done.

The real shame in this is the good local independents who have lost seats. 

The SNP will make modest gains overall - but probably lose a few seats in the heartlands; the Greens will make some good gains ; the Tories will make massive gains and it'll be talked up no doubt - but look from where they were starting, e.g in some areas 0 ; and the Libs well apart from a few areas they are strong, the fight back is most certainly not happening!

The SNP possibly have put up too many councillors in certain areas. E.G seen one Glasgow ward with 3 SNP candidates all with good first preferences, and the Tories with one. 

One good thing about all this is the parties will have a good idea of where they need to work to get their vote out in 5 weeks.

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34 minutes ago, slasher said:

Is the irony not lost on them that not only is she a Catholic but a lesbian as well. How does that square with them?

Not that it's of any relevance whatsoever but I'm pretty sure that Ruth Davidson is Church of Scotland.

 

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6 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

The SNP possibly have put up too many councillors in certain areas. E.G seen one Glasgow ward with 3 SNP candidates all with good first preferences, and the Tories with one. 

That's only a problem if you put three candidates up in a ward and only get one returned.  If you get two returned it was worth taking a chance.

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17 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

What will be interesting will be to see the vote numbers when this is done.

Can you tell from an STV election how the FPTP vote share will go?

Certainly it's clear the Tory vote here next month with be their largest for decades.

Edited by Toepoke
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A Tory got the most 1st preference votes in my ward in Falkirk. It's quite an affluent area so i suspect it's full of "I'm alright, Jack" whanks but still mortifying. 

2 SNP, 1 Labour and 1 Tory. 

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11 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Can you tell from an STV election how the FPTP vote share will go?

Certainly it's clear the Tory vote here next month with be their largest for decades.

First preferences should give you a good idea.  You would think there would be a bit of tactical voting which might increase that in the GE.  

You also have to factor in that there are a lot of candidates in local elections, maybe best to treat those as "don't knows" where the GE is concerned.

That said, I expect a lot of the Green FP votes will go to the SNP in the GE, so I expect the SNP vote to be a bit higher than their FPs might suggest. 

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