Council elections

[Guest flumax]

Just now, Ally Bongo said:

twatter

apologies x

Kind of you to apologise. No need. I didn't mean to come across as narked, found it amusing. 

 

(turning in to a Canadian politeness message board if we're not careful) 

 

[Ally Bongo]

2 minutes ago, flumax said:

Kind of you to apologise. No need. I didn't mean to come across as narked, found it amusing. 

 

(turning in to a Canadian politeness message board if we're not careful) 

 

In hindsight i should have posted a Youtube video with John Curtice as is my apparant modus operandi ...

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, AlfieMoon said:

I think you're playing on a bit of an overly dramatic stereotype of 'the right'. 

There's plenty of (centre-)'right' votes that SNP can get within reason. It takes being honest with themselves that things like the £43k tax threshold differing from UK doesn't help & there's other policies they would need question themselves on. Failure on CAP payments doesn't help. Mixed messages on EU for fishing communities doesn't help. 

Demonising Tories as the enemy in Indyref was one of the SNP's biggest mistakes. It alienated a sizeable % of voters in Scotland and was very short-term in vision. It turned off many aspiring middle classes wealth creators who felt they were being swept towards a socialist country as all the sounds from SNP were geared towards mopping up the masses of the Labour vote. Political parties play the percentages and SNP thought that was their best chance of victory. Maybe it was, but they drew a line in the sand for Tory voters. 

They have repeated the same mistake with Brexit/Leave voters by being so strong in their position. Again it has resulted in a %age of Scottish voters feeling backed into a corner. They thought they'd get a Brexit bounce but it's been net neutral. They should really have had the completeness of vision to adopt EFTA as an obvious middle ground. 

The whole shitfest of the situation now with Davidson & the Tories purposeful Ulsterisation of Scottish politics is just crap. The GE is going to be the final nail and then it's a case of buckle yourself in for 5 more years of crap. 

I can't help wishing that Scottish Labour had the backbone to have allowed some honest and open Yes support in their ranks during Indyref and equally had anything/something constructive to say as a voice on the Brexit debate at UK level then we'd not be where we are just now. They've been on the sidelines since 2014 and it plays into Tory hands at every level of UK politics. 

Very good post. 

[Ally Bongo]

John Nicolson was on fire today with two absolute zingers

Told culture secretary Karen Bradley that she was like a Stepford Wife after she spouted the "strong and stable" "coalition of chaos" mantra.

Then when Buffalo Bob said his seat was now under threat he said that at least he didnt have to cross the country for another seat after being defeated

[Grim Jim]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Salmond was very good at appealing to centre right and buisness,, but still managed to keep his politics firmly in the centre,Salmond's politics suited me more than any other politician,, its no surprise that i would be slightly more right than most on this board, maybe why i get a bit of greif now and again,,,the party need to start reaching out to that centre right leaning voters again.  

So you didn't approve of his expulsion then?

[weekevie04]

This/and so is next month to an extent, the Tories 'No surrender/second referendum' moment.

Whilst there's no doubt they did well. They did no win and came no where near winning a majority of seats.

The SNP have a steady hardcore support. And make no doubt about it! Turnout was up in many of the rural areas - the Tories were out to say No, and whilst they may well have equalled or even peeped ahead of the SNP in Perthshire or Aberdeenshire.

The SNP vote held steady and took some decent scalps.

I will most likely vote for the Greens in the next Holyrood election on the list ; but if the SNP can get even a small number of members to do something, anything to beat the Tories in June ; it will send a very powerful message to London.

I can see why some might disappointed that the SNP didn't win by larger margins, but this was almost an alignment of things.

The Lib Dem fightback turned out to be nothing - although they did poll in their target seats ; the Greens finally picked up some seats thanks to the SNP - it always feels like its SNP asking for Green votes, so I'm glad to see a big increased in Greens ; Labour who I realised last year at not the enemy after all but they really don't help theirselves in Scotland with Dugdale/McAveety ''this is a bad night for the SNP'', they truly deserve oblivion ; and we are left with the Tories - this was their big turnout/'I'm going to tell that woman moment and they didn't even put a dent in the SNP.

[Eisegerwind]

Oh well, thats one no win situation for Scotland passed. Next one will be the GE, again a no win situation possible for Scotland. Seem to remember there was a possibility of a win for Scotland a few years back, at least we had the possibility of a win then, bottled it.

[phil]

I think the results gives credence to that 60 - 40 poll on independence a while back. SNP remain a solid, formidable minority but they are starting to crumble, and the floaters that were drawn to the cause in 2014 boosting the YES vote are now floating away again. It must say something about the independence issue that so many Labour voters were willing to vote Tory, probably for the first time in their lives. If it were just a reaction to Corbyn they'd be more likely to just stay home surely? The bloom is off the rose for the Nats and there have been a number of causes: Calling for a vote on Independence at the worst possible time for the UK seemed treacherous and opportunistic and put off a lot of people - see online poll. Their Europhilia just didn't connect with the public mood, even among ardent remainers - I can't imagine anyone being 'dragged out of the EU against (their) will' apart from maybe John Claude Juncker. Their piss poor record in government is becoming increasingly apparent and that tax payer funded vanity tour of the US showed worrying signs of megalomania. Add to that, Ruth D has been superb despite the avalanche of vile abuse that rains down on her; and Theresa May has handled Sturgeon adroitly, making her appear shrill and desperate by comparison.  

[Caledonian Craig]

Just back from Fantasy Island Phil?

[Guest BlueGaz]

4 hours ago, phil said:

I think the results gives credence to that 60 - 40 poll on independence a while back. SNP remain a solid, formidable minority but they are starting to crumble, and the floaters that were drawn to the cause in 2014 boosting the YES vote are now floating away again. It must say something about the independence issue that so many Labour voters were willing to vote Tory, probably for the first time in their lives. If it were just a reaction to Corbyn they'd be more likely to just stay home surely? The bloom is off the rose for the Nats and there have been a number of causes: Calling for a vote on Independence at the worst possible time for the UK seemed treacherous and opportunistic and put off a lot of people - see online poll. Their Europhilia just didn't connect with the public mood, even among ardent remainers - I can't imagine anyone being 'dragged out of the EU against (their) will' apart from maybe John Claude Juncker. Their piss poor record in government is becoming increasingly apparent and that tax payer funded vanity tour of the US showed worrying signs of megalomania. Add to that, Ruth D has been superb despite the avalanche of vile abuse that rains down on her; and Theresa May has handled Sturgeon adroitly, making her appear shrill and desperate by comparison.  

I don't see the SNP crumbling as a party, possibly on their indyref2 crusade.  If the former is to happen, I don't think we will see real evidence of that until 5 years from now at the next GE.  I do however, think that Sturgeon was premature in the games she played this year calling bluff etc, then of course whining when the Tories did the same (also after consistently referring to the PM as unelected).  

As much as I hate to agree with her, I believe the PM was correct and now is not the time.  On one hand I am gobsmacked the SNP did what they did recently, on the other, and although I appreciate it is their main aim, they should really be prioritising their goals and constantly evolving those priorities.  I don't think indyref2 should be top of their priorities right now.  But it is what they are all about.

But back to the main point, crumbling?  I don't think so.  They have done so well recently that the only realistic results going forward was going to be a drop at some point.  I expect it to happen again next month.  The main point is that although support for the SNP as a party looking after us is overwhelming, the support for indy within those ranks is obviously not as high.  

Obviously the none SNP vote is shifting around, but we are in a climate that we haven't been in before; so much these days is new to the whole electorate.

[Caledonian Craig]

NHS in worse state than Scotland.

Prison service on verge of implosion in England and Wales (not Scotland). 

Council Tax rising year on year.

Paying for Prescriptions.

Paying Tuition Fees.

And lots more. So much for Fandabidoze Tory rule and that is before we even get started on a rabid bint and Hard Brexit.

As for support for independence crumbling? Tosh. And I hate to break it to yoons everywhere. The younger generation are the future of Scotland and they are 70% pro-independence - that tells you the direction the support for independence is going. And May's leadership is just going to drive more people that way as well.

[exile]

Has anyone got to the bottom of the the confusion over the SNP gaining or losing seats since 2012? Is it because of notional boundary changes or did SNP gain extra seats 2012-2017 through by-elections then lose them again?

Even if the boundary changes or by-elections was an issue, why would anyone not simply report the statistic that the SNP won 425 in 2012 and 431 in 2017, therefore an improvement on 2012?  Surely the total figure is what matters, and not how votes might or might not have been distributed across local boundaries?

This feels uncomfortably like journalistic gerrymandering by the BBC, so people round the country especially down south actually think the SNP did worse than in 2012. Talk about fake news...

I note that Wikipedia manage to show both the 431 figure and the 425 figure here, and yet in the same table they show the BBC gerrymandered figure as the difference between the two numbers (!). Though further down they also report the +6 figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_local_elections,_2017

What are the bets that the BBC compares SNP GE results with the 56 seats they gained in the GE2015, not the number of sitting MPs in April 2017?

Edited May 6, 2017 by exile

[DonnyTJS]

19 minutes ago, exile said:

Has anyone got to the bottom of the the confusion over the SNP gaining or losing seats since 2012? Is it because of notional boundary changes or did SNP gain extra seats 2012-2017 through by-elections then lose them again?

Even if the boundary changes or by-elections was an issue, why would anyone not simply report the statistic that the SNP won 425 in 2012 and 431 in 2017, therefore an improvement on 2012?  Surely the total figure is what matters, and not how votes might or might not have been distributed across local boundaries?

This feels uncomfortably like journalistic gerrymandering by the BBC, so people round the country especially down south actually think the SNP did worse than in 2012. Talk about fake news...

Might it not be worth writing to the BBC asking for an explanation?

They do give this explanation of how seats are calculated on their website but I'm not motivated enough to work out if it answers your question.

Quote

 

How is seat change calculated?

Seat change is based on how many seats each party won at the previous comparable election.

For nearly everywhere in England, the previous election for these seats was in 2013* and for nearly everywhere in Wales in 2012**.

Scotland's last council elections also took place in 2012.

In some councils, boundary changes take place where councils are re-organised and the number of seats on the council changes.

In cases like this, the BBC uses "notional results" to project what the previous result would have been if the new boundaries had been in place at the last election.

The total number of seats per party will be slightly different between the seats-at-dissolution and those won in 2013 and 2012.

* - Doncaster's previous comparable election was in 2015

** - Anglesey's election was delayed by a year until 2013.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2017 by DonnyTJS

[phil]

1 hour ago, BlueGaz said:

I don't see the SNP crumbling as a party, possibly on their indyref2 crusade.  If the former is to happen, I don't think we will see real evidence of that until 5 years from now at the next GE.  I do however, think that Sturgeon was premature in the games she played this year calling bluff etc, then of course whining when the Tories did the same (also after consistently referring to the PM as unelected).  

As much as I hate to agree with her, I believe the PM was correct and now is not the time.  On one hand I am gobsmacked the SNP did what they did recently, on the other, and although I appreciate it is their main aim, they should really be prioritising their goals and constantly evolving those priorities.  I don't think indyref2 should be top of their priorities right now.  But it is what they are all about.

But back to the main point, crumbling?  I don't think so.  They have done so well recently that the only realistic results going forward was going to be a drop at some point.  I expect it to happen again next month.  The main point is that although support for the SNP as a party looking after us is overwhelming, the support for indy within those ranks is obviously not as high.  

Obviously the none SNP vote is shifting around, but we are in a climate that we haven't been in before; so much these days is new to the whole electorate.

I wrote starting to 'crumble' advisedly, as in the beginning of a process over time. I agree they are likely to stay strong for the foreseeable future, but significantly down from their 2014 /15 highs; and I think they'll have a very hard job getting anywhere near that level again. I agree with you though that there is real potential for an SNP that downgrades full independence to a vague aspiration sometime in the future rather than a realistic short term goal. It scares people too much, and they underestimate the genuine feelings of kinship and sympathy people in Scotland have for the rest of the UK. And I also think people are getting fed up with the constant phoney outrage and special pleading.

[exile]

8 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

Might it not be worth writing to the BBC asking for an explanation?

They do give this explanation of how seats are calculated on their website but I'm not motivated enough to work out if it answers your question.

 

Thanks I just checked that wikipedia page again and it actually has (though I didn't notice) the number of seats held just before the election (seats-at-dissolution). Therein seems to lie the discrepancy

I'm not so concerned about how the BBC did their notional calculations, but why - why not just ignore boundary changes and compare total seats won in 2012 with 2017?  .

[dipped flake]

16 minutes ago, phil said:

I wrote starting to 'crumble' advisedly, as in the beginning of a process over time. I agree they are likely to stay strong for the foreseeable future, but significantly down from their 2014 /15 highs; and I think they'll have a very hard job getting anywhere near that level again. I agree with you though that there is real potential for an SNP that downgrades full independence to a vague aspiration sometime in the future rather than a realistic short term goal. It scares people too much, and they underestimate the genuine feelings of kinship and sympathy people in Scotland have for the rest of the UK. And I also think people are getting fed up with the constant phoney outrage and special pleading.

Unionists like you might be fed up but the SNP will continue to fight for independence against a backdrop of England dancing to the ukip tune

[Regenmann]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

NHS in worse state than Scotland.

Prison service on verge of implosion in England and Wales (not Scotland). 

Council Tax rising year on year.

Paying for Prescriptions.

Paying Tuition Fees.

And lots more. So much for Fandabidoze Tory rule and that is before we even get started on a rabid bint and Hard Brexit.

As for support for independence crumbling? Tosh. And I hate to break it to yoons everywhere. The younger generation are the future of Scotland and they are 70% pro-independence - that tells you the direction the support for independence is going. And May's leadership is just going to drive more people that way as well.

I have been paying roughly the same (East Ren) for as long as I can remember now, which simply isn't right - Council Tax I don't mind paying as it funds vital local services - my income tax on the other hand is being frittered away on tuition fees, prescriptions, dental check-ups, eye tests... for people that can afford to pay for these things themselves - it's like me walking into the Busby Hotel this evening and standing drinks for everyone.

[Mee]

I think the SNP need to stop trying to out lefty labour and the greens. Even if people want independence I don't think they want to live in a socialist paradise.

[Orraloon]

36 minutes ago, Regenmann said:

I have been paying roughly the same (East Ren) for as long as I can remember now, which simply isn't right - Council Tax I don't mind paying as it funds vital local services - my income tax on the other hand is being frittered away on tuition fees, prescriptions, dental check-ups, eye tests... for people that can afford to pay for these things themselves - it's like me walking into the Busby Hotel this evening and standing drinks for everyone.

Do you not make use of the dental check ups and eye tests? If not, why not? This might sound a bit dramatic but they could help to prevent you from developing serious illnesses and possible even save your life. Dentists don't just check your teeth they can also spot the early signs of mouth cancer which kills many people very year. Your eye test can pick up early signs of a number of serious illnesses (eg diabetes). Picking these things up at an early stage can not only help you live a longer and healthier life, but can also save the NHS a lot of money in the long run.

Sometimes you need to look at the bigger picture.

 

[Mark frae Crieff]

Looks like some people cannae recognise symbols.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/two-candidates-same-name-poorest-10364065

[Regenmann]

13 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Do you not make use of the dental check ups and eye tests? If not, why not? This might sound a bit dramatic but they could help to prevent you from developing serious illnesses and possible even save your life. Dentists don't just check your teeth they can also spot the early signs of mouth cancer which kills many people very year. Your eye test can pick up early signs of a number of serious illnesses (eg diabetes). Picking these things up at an early stage can not only help you live a longer and healthier life, but can also save the NHS a lot of money in the long run.

Sometimes you need to look at the bigger picture.

 

To avoid being a hypocrite I've gone private for my Hampsteads. Honestly can't remember the last time I had my eyes tested - opticians are just interested in trying to flog you goggles whether you need them or not.

[DonnyTJS]

1 hour ago, exile said:

I'm not so concerned about how the BBC did their notional calculations, but why - why not just ignore boundary changes and compare total seats won in 2012 with 2017?  .

That's standard practice. Since there cannot be a like-for-like comparison, they approximate a notional like-for-like comparison. It's happened in GEs where boundary changes have occurred for as long as I can remember. I think you're being a little overly conspiratorial here tbh.

[aaid]

16 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

That's standard practice. Since there cannot be a like-for-like comparison, they approximate a notional like-for-like comparison. It's happened in GEs where boundary changes have occurred for as long as I can remember. I think you're being a little overly conspiratorial here tbh.

It's a fair enough practice as long as they're prepared to back up and publish their methodology. 

What isn't fair enough is to try and present a party that's won more seats and more votes than any other party - by some distance - as somehow losing, which has been the case with most broadcasters and newspapers. 

Mind you that's not as ridiculous as Labour in Glasgow trying to compare vote share in FPTP 2015 GE and 2016 HR against council STV vote as some evidence of a great Labour fight back and victory in Glasgow. 

[RenfrewBlue]

23 hours ago, Parklife said:

Don't say that. There will be some whank who'll try and dig through every post he made in the hope they find something offensive. 

He's my brother in law, so I've already done that and forwarded it all on to The Sun. ? 

 

[DonnyTJS]

3 minutes ago, RenfrewBlue said:

He's my brother in law, so I've already done that and forwarded it all on to The Sun. ? 

 

  He came across as a bit of a scary mad bloke on here (to my innocent way of reading posts at the time, any road).