Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[Mark frae Crieff]

You'd think she knows they are guilty

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

[Grim Jim]

25 minutes ago, Mark frae Crieff said:

You'd think she knows they are guilty

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

“If there are any conclusions to the contrary, we will pay the fines, whatever is appropriate."

So they don't gife a vuck.

[Ally Bongo]

Nice

[weekevie04]

The Tory press are no better than the GOP hardcore in America.

Revolting.

This gave me a laugh though.

 

Edited April 18, 2017 by weekevie04

[Mitre]

5 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

The Tory press are no better than the GOP hardcore in America.

Revolting.

This gave me a laugh though.

 

Edited April 19, 2017 by Mitre

[EddardStark]

I don't think Sturgeon is up to the task when dealing with May and the Tories tactics. This is not just aimed at Sturgeon but also every other UK political leader. It proves to me what an effective operator Salmond was in his day. Its a depressing outlook for the next 10 years. There has been a Coup d etat in political terms engineered by the right in the Tory party which will now be bolstered by demise of UKIP.

 

As for Labour then they are facing obilteration. Corbyn and McDonnell appear to be living in a parallel universe to the PLP. You can see it in the eyes of sitting MP's.They are doomed. The only party that could do well out of this are the Lib Dems who will pick up seats from Labour in my opinion. Its time Labour came on board with PR as I doubt they will be in Govt for many years to come.

Edited April 19, 2017 by EddardStark

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, EddardStark said:

I don't think Sturgeon is up to the task when dealing with May and the Tories tactics. This is not just aimed at Sturgeon but also every other UK political leader. It proves to me what an effective operator Salmond was in his day. Its a depressing outlook for the next 10 years. There has been a Coup d etat in political terms engineered by the right in the Tory party which will now be bolstered by demise of UKIP.

 

As for Labour then they are facing obilteration. Corbyn and McDonnell appear to be living in a parallel universe to the PLP. You can see it in the eyes of sitting MP's.They are doomed. The only party that could do well out of this are the Lib Dems who will pick up seats from Labour in my opinion. Its time Labour came on board with PR as I doubt they will be in Govt for many years to come.

Im always of the impression salmond is still the orchestrator of the party, i would like to think so as he is best politician on the go. However even this will have taken him by surprise.. 35+ seats would be a reasonable tally to get...i await with apprehension the first detailed poll north of the border 

[adamntg]

If support for Indy is still running around 45% then that would still be plenty to secure 50+ seats. 

[Guest flumax]

4 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Im always of the impression salmond is still the orchestrator of the party, i would like to think so as he is best politician on the go. However even this will have taken him by surprise.. 35+ seats would be a reasonable tally to get...i await with apprehension the first detailed poll north of the border 

35seats your kidding, I admit losses will happen but not in that scale. where where you getting this other than your gut. I've not seen a seat calculator less than 50 snp. Fptp requires a huge change in public voting for this. The snp now has in my opinion a solid, no matter what 40% vote pretty much uniform across Scotland. Torys are in pockets. Can't see that many labour voters holding their noses for tory sakes. 5-10% maybe 

E. G

 

 

Or are you predicting conservative vote will go up to above 40% and SNP down below 40%. With labour below 10%? Baseless prediction no way near polling 

Not going to get that 40% tory other than a few localised spots. 

 

[Guest flumax]

25 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Im always of the impression salmond is still the orchestrator of the party, 

You do FM and Murrell a discredit. Not a chance.  Robertson has more influence than Eck these days 

[Ally Bongo]

John Curtice has said that he cannot see any change in the constituencies

You would really need to have severe tactical voting for the SNP to lose any of the seats it has

Labour, Lib Dems and Tories will dilute the Unionist vote

Going down to 35 is a nonsense (i hope)

[Haggis_trap]

Sturgeon played a blinder by calling Mays bluff on IndyRef#2.
As a female she is also perhaps more likely to appeal to wider cross section and be seen as less confrontational.
Which is essential if we are to get 50% for independence.

It looks likely Scotland will reject brexit 4 times (EU Ref, Holyrood, Westminter x2).
Yet somehow we don't have a mandate....

Edited April 19, 2017 by Haggis_trap

[aaid]

25 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

John Curtice has said that he cannot see any change in the constituencies

You would really need to have severe tactical voting for the SNP to lose any of the seats it has

Labour, Lib Dems and Tories will dilute the Unionist vote

Going down to 35 is a nonsense (i hope)

This.  There might be a handful of constituencies that have a bit of a problem but I can't us losing more than a handful of seats and a lot of those will come down to local factors.  What will be important in some of the constituencies that are a bit more marginal will be how effective and how visible the MPs have been locally.  Candidate selection is also important, if the Tories can put up strong, well respected local candidates they have a better chance.  I fully expect that a big number of current MPs will increase their majorities.  Some talk about John Nicholson being under pressure but - caveat about local factors aside - I don't see that.

On the other hand, Ian Murray must be under pressure unless he can get even more Tories and Lib Dems to vote for him.  Similarly, Alistair Carmichael is having to face his electorate a lot sooner than he thought he'd have to.   I can also see the SNP making a big run for Mundell's seat, his majority is only 798.  It'll be interesting to see who the SNP stand as Emma Harper is now in Holyrood.

 

 

[Haggis_trap]

^ Yip -  Remember in this election a vote for Tory endorses the hardest of brexits.
So they wont automatically hoover all the unionist vote...

[Auld_Reekie]

Post-indyref boost aside, I've learned to go in to elections with very low expectations. As such, Im expecting SNP to lose up to a dozen seats. A mixture of tactical Unionist voting and some SNP candidates being total roasters suggests there might be a few shocks. More so if the SNP do not get the message just right.

A moment of positivity - if the SNP get the message bang on, can actually see them holding at least the same number of seats.

This election will be the foundation #indyref2 is built on. Lots at stake.

[PapofGlencoe]

I don't think this election helps the idea of holding a referendum at this precise moment.  Think the idea of another vote adds to voter fatigue.

At the moment though, depends how the election goes.

They'll be looking to make big play of the percentage vote.

PS I really think this shows how little May cares about Scotland.  She really believes she can simply deny a referendum.  She won't be crumbling anytime soon.  Holding an election now doesn't help her Scottish arguments at all.  She just thinks she can have the final say regardless.

[sbcmfc]

It looks like UKIP have all but disappeared, having got Brexit and with Farage taking a back seat, can see almost all the UKIP vote shifting to Tory.

However Jeremy Corbyn is more popular with the public than he is with his own party bizarrely.

So Theresa May might've underestimated Labour slightly.

The Lib Dems were unelectable at the last GE, but seem to have regained some credibility, not sure how?

I think some people have been turned off the SNP a bit, but I don't really see a viable alternative in Scotland.

So I can't see a great deal of change other than Conservatives winning by a bigger margin in places UKIP did well and Labour and Lib Dems doing better in the south of England and Wales, but whether they can do well enough to actually win more seats is a different matter.

[scoobydoo]

3 minutes ago, sbcmfc said:

 

However Jeremy Corbyn is more popular with the public than he is with his own party bizarrely.

 

Its all totally ####ed. You'll see Labour voters voting for their candidate just to spite him.

[Haggis_trap]

14 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

PS I really think this shows how little May cares about Scotland.  She really believes she can simply deny a referendum.  She won't be crumbling anytime soon.  Holding an election now doesn't help her Scottish arguments at all.  She just thinks she can have the final say regardless.

I am cool with that...

Much as I despise the Tories and their vision of Brexit independence is a long game. 
If we have to wait 5-10 year then Professor Curtice suggests there be enough natural demographic shift to make YES certain.
Younger voters <24 are something like 70% in favor of independence

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, flumax said:

35seats your kidding, I admit losses will happen but not in that scale. where where you getting this other than your gut. I've not seen a seat calculator less than 50 snp. Fptp requires a huge change in public voting for this. The snp now has in my opinion a solid, no matter what 40% vote pretty much uniform across Scotland. Torys are in pockets. Can't see that many labour voters holding their noses for tory sakes. 5-10% maybe 

E. G

 

 

Or are you predicting conservative vote will go up to above 40% and SNP down below 40%. With labour below 10%? Baseless prediction no way near polling 

Not going to get that 40% tory other than a few localised spots. 

 

Im just setting the bar low so im not disappointed, you are forgetting the lib dems and labour.. lib dems will nab a few seats torys will get 6-10 and even labour could geab a few.. its just the general feeling around my workplace and social circle thats giving me the jitters,,, i hope my fears are unfounded 

[Ally Bongo]

Nicola is down at Westminster today and making an announcement at 11

Probably about SNP MPs abstaining on the GE vote

Meanwhile from the Poll of Polls

[Guest BlueGaz]

7 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Nicola is down at Westminster today and making an announcement at 11

Probably about SNP MPs abstaining on the GE vote

Meanwhile from the Poll of Polls

 

Typical.

[PapofGlencoe]

43 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

I am cool with that...

Much as I despise the Tories and their vision of Brexit independence is a long game. 
If we have to wait 5-10 year then Professor Curtice suggests there be enough natural demographic shift to make YES certain.
Younger voters <24 are something like 70% in favor of independence

I get what you're saying but i'm not cool with it.   The idea of a party with one seat in Scotland holding as it's sole right the ability to decide if Scotland can even have a referendum is a fundamental shift and changes what we are.

This puts us in the Catalan territory.  Slowly trying to push us into the concept of any vote needs Westminster approval.  We always assumed they would approve if the people voted for it.  We now know that is not the case.

Even if it's 69% yes or whatever in the polls, i'm beginning to think Westminster simply will not budge.  And as we've seen with other places, other countries will back them - not us.

 

[Parklife]

23 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Nicola is down at Westminster today and making an announcement at 11

Probably about SNP MPs abstaining on the GE vote

Which would be an utterly pathetic position IMO. 

[Goozay]

In the 2015 General Election Scottish Labour voters thought Miliband had a chance – maybe not of an outright majority but perhaps forming a collation in a hung parliament. This time around no one gives Corbyn a hope in hell. In 2015 a large section of the Scottish Labour vote went to the polls still believing the mantra that Labour are the only part that can stop the Tories. That mantra has completely evaporated now - so I expect the Labour vote in Scotland to drop even further.

I don’t expect those Scottish Labour votes to automatically transfer to the Tories. Most Scottish Labour voters hate the Tories and have in the past seen the SNP as diluting/splitting the anti-Tory vote. Now the SNP ARE the anti-Tory vote I expect a further trend of folk switching to SNP or not coming out at all. Ignore the writing of Ian Smart and his ilk – I don’t see him as a typical Scottish Labour. He’s more of an outlying shit stirrer.

I don’t see the Lib Dems making much of an impact either in Scotland – they might claw back some of the loses they haemorrhaged in 2015 down south. I see this as a straight SNP v Tory race.

The only marginal seat that SNP won in 2015 where the Tories came second was Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – with a majority of only 328, even something like UKIP not fielding a candidate could be enough to tip the balance in the Tories favour.

 Overall though I expect the SNP to hold on to the vast majority of their current seats and for the Labour vote to fall further.

There are 3 main areas that will be a factor:

1. Voter apathy: most folk just cannae be arsed with politics at the moment, so it will be even more critical for respective parties to get their vote out. In Scotland I feel the appetite for independence is greater than the appetite for a referendum on the subject – converting current disillusionment with politics into an anti-Westminster vote will help the SNP.
2. The EU – there are a significant number of SNP voters that don’t like the EU. If the SNP are seen to be too pro-EU that could damage them. They’ll need to get their messaging right that the Tories will shaft Scotland on fishing rights and farm subsidies as well as use Brexit to pursue an extremely right wing agenda. They’ll need to position the EU as a partnership while highlighting the UK’s democratic deficit for Scotland.
3. Confirmation that the Tories are the nasty party – recently the mainstream press in Scotland have picked up on The Rape Clause as well as the number of Tory council candidates that have posted something dodgy online in the past. Confirmation of the Tory brand still being toxic north of the border will stall any momentum the Scottish Tories feel they may have. SNP need to take advantage of the Scottish Tories having little to offer apart from “No IndyRef2”and wacky photo opportunities for Ruth Davidson, plus the fact that they’re tied to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Liam Fox and Jeremy Hunt.