Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[exile]

Anyone know what's the story on the white powder packages sent to SNP addresses?

[Edit: obviously can check the internet but the reports don't say very much actual detail]

I see the BBC 'national' news said there were some incidents involving a political party in Scotland, but didn't say which one. Why not?

Are they trying to keep things low key for security reasons?

Edited April 27, 2017 by exile

[Ally Bongo]

1 minute ago, exile said:

Anyone know what's the story on the white powder packages sent to SNP addresses?

I see the BBC 'national' news said there were some incidents involving a political party in Scotland, but didn't say which one. Why not?

Are they trying to keep things low key for security reasons?

Considering that the Jim Murphy being hit by an egg story ran for a week i doubt it

More to do with them not wanting to highlight extreme right wing yoonery is my guess - but i'm biased ..

[Haggis_trap]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I really hope this one is genuine.

Ian Murray

Confirmed - I have one in my hand! 
Arrived this afternoon....
 

[Haggis_trap]

7 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Considering that the Jim Murphy being hit by an egg story ran for a week i doubt it

More to do with them not wanting to highlight extreme right wing yoonery is my guess - but i'm biased ..

Anthrax....That is a big deal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/guidance-issued-scottish-politicians-series-suspicious-packages/

[weekevie04]

[Toepoke]

23 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

The bottom 2 haven't changed hands 

That'd be Angus Robertson oot.  A major scalp for the Tories there! 

[hampden_loon2878]

5 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

Not hood reading by all accounts,,if snp support falls bellow 40% we are in scary territory, when last was support so low? 

[Orraloon]

7 hours ago, Haggis_trap said:

Confirmed - I have one in my hand! 
Arrived this afternoon....
 

Excellent.

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

if snp support falls bellow 40% we are in scary territory, when last was support so low? 

Not that long ago actually. Probably around 2014 when the SNP and Labour swapped places...

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/10/all-time-high-snp/

[DonnyTJS]

I wouldn't put any credence in polling at the moment for a variety of reasons:

It's too early in the campaign.

Polling has been shown to be an increasingly inexact science as it struggles to identify genuinely representative samples and can't cope with (apparently) people's increasing tendency to lie.

Current polling just doesn't ring true.

I'm a long way away, but even from here I can see that Theresa May lacks the personality to be a popular choice for PM. That's a given. This doesn't mean the Conservatives won't win the election - other factors mean they almost certainly will - but it does mean that the final result is unlikely to reflect their current standing in the polls.

Attempts to make any general election focus on a single issue are doomed to failure, but this one seems like it's going to be particularly messy, confusing and, ultimately, unsatisfactory. Europe, Scottish independence, Leadership, the NHS - those and other issues are being pushed to the fore but relatively few people will be able to unequivocally find one party that fits their views on each one.

At the moment I'd say there'll be a low turnout; a few weeks of May spouting the same pish will increasingly stick in people's craw; partly in consequence of this, and partly because it's probably true, Corbyn and Farron will begin to appear as genuinely viable alternatives, outwith Scotland at least, leading to a Brexit-inspired Lib Dem resurgence at the expense of the Tory vote if nothing else. In the Scottish context, I haven't a clue, but I don't see what the SNP have done to significantly reduce their previous vote. I'd be very surprised if under FPTP they lose more than one or two seats if any. The Brexit result should have left Sturgeon in a stronger position in GE terms (those uncommitted to independence can safely vote SNP as a protest); the current polling and doom-mongering just doesn't make sense, imho.

[aaid]

A word of warning on that YouGov poll.  The numbers represent a change since the last GE on 2015.  I know that it says that in the small print but I've seen these numbers being portrayed on social media as if  it's a shift in opinion over the last week or so.   YouGov haven't done a Scotland specific poll on GE voting since before the last GE in May 2015 so there's nothing to really compare this against.  I wouldn't be reading too much into this until there are more polls to compare it with - which there will almost certainly be.

One thing however, it does show a slight +1 increase in support for independence so makes that Kantar/TNS poll from the other week that showed a large decrease in support look more and more like an outlier. 

[the_fadiator]

It's a sample of 1000 people and doesn't take into account the circumstances of individual constituencies, be it tactical voting, popular incumbents, local issues/sensitivities.

Interestingly the bookies shows some tight seats, but the following changes based on favourites:

SNP to Con
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SNP to LD
Edinburgh West

Lab to SNP
Edinburgh South

[mariokempes56]

Caught the tail end of a news item this morning (may have been about the London incidents - not sure but it was not election related),,last 4 words of statement - "strong and stable g...".

 

People must surely see through this guff, the insincerity, the complete lack of willingness to debate or engage with the real world,

[scoobydoo]

no real surprise to see aberdeen and surrounds heading home to conservatism.

[aaid]

1 hour ago, the_fadiator said:

It's a sample of 1000 people and doesn't take into account the circumstances of individual constituencies, be it tactical voting, popular incumbents, local issues/sensitivities.

Interestingly the bookies shows some tight seats, but the following changes based on favourites:

SNP to Con
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

SNP to LD
Edinburgh West

Lab to SNP
Edinburgh South

Spot on, they're just taking those poll results and applying those "country-wide"* across individual constituencies.  It would be hard to see the Tories taking seats from the SNP that were previously Labour seats. The exception there would be East Renfrewshire which is in reality a traditional Tory seat and which is a  probably a three-way marginal with a real danger that the Unionist vote will be split. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Labour vote there and how much previously was a personal vote for Murphy. 

[Ally Bongo]

Kenny Farquaharson has his cock out at the most recent polls

No to Independence

No second referendum

SNP collapse at GE

The Yoons are delighted

[weekevie04]

26 minutes ago, aaid said:

Spot on, they're just taking those poll results and applying those "country-wide"* across individual constituencies.  It would be hard to see the Tories taking seats from the SNP that were previously Labour seats. The exception there would be East Renfrewshire which is in reality a traditional Tory seat and which is a  probably a three-way marginal with a real danger that the Unionist vote will be split. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Labour vote there and how much previously was a personal vote for Murphy. 

I agree.

They also have East Renfrewshire going to the Tories in that poll when Labour seem to fancy their chances and put up a pretty high-profile candidate in Blair McDougall. Surely that'll stump the tactical unionists - go with the Tories or Labour.

I don't know enough about the demographics and so on, but the Aberdeen South Tory candidate seems to be a full-blown idiot, and is already a MSP. Like wise in Moray, wee Dougie Ross - a linesman, MSP, and soon to be an MP?

It'll be interesting for the odds though and will be keeping an eye on it. The SNP surely will lose seats, but the likes of Moray I think some Labour/Lib soft unionists may vote for Robertson.

I think the longer this election goes on and the Tories, well May really, her tactic of attacking Corbyn, spouting 'strong and' then Brexit followed by next to no questions, debate, pensions scrutiny (hopefully). She is not doing debates because she is terrible at thinking on her feet will make people think twice about voting Tory.

They used to talk about shy Tories etc, is there a shy Labour vote possibly. Possibly not, but there was an excellent point by a guy in the crowd on QT last night about May calling a election but won't actually participate in it, and people are willing to vote her party yet she won't engage with the public.

Then again Brexit, Make Britain Great Again, etc and a lot of I'm Alright, Jock/Jack/Taff/Paddy's out there.

 

Edited April 28, 2017 by weekevie04

[the_fadiator]

Agree with that on East Renfrewshire even if the bookies have Lab well behind the Tories. I'd expect the Unionist vote will be split in Edinburgh South too, hopefully with the result that the SNP win both. East Lothian too. East Dunbartonshire's an interesting one and could do with a strong Tory candidate standing there to limit switchers to Jo Swinson's LD vote.

[Ally Bongo]

34 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Kenny Farquaharson has his cock out at the most recent polls

No to Independence

No second referendum

SNP collapse at GE

The Yoons are delighted

Jackson Carlow tweeted a pick of Kirsten Oswald's constituency office with the shutters with down adding a jocular "closed for business" jibe.

She was out chapping doors with Nicola Sturgeon ....

[aaid]

The whole situation is confusing.  A lot of this assumes that the constitution is the single biggest factor in Scottish politics - it is - and that it trumps everything else - I'm not sure if does.

On that basis it follows that everyone who supports Indy will vote SNP, green voters will also vote SNP as they know that under FPTP they have no chance of winning.

It also follows that all Unionist voters will vote for the candidate that has the best chance of beating the SNP -above all else.   

I think that there is some chance of the first one happening but I'm not sure that the second necessarily applies,

If you're a Lib Dem supporter and you're pro-European, do you really want to increase the Tory majority?

Take the example of Aberdeenshire West which YouGov are predicting going to the Tories.   That's traditionally a Lib Dem seat.  In 2015, the Lib Dem vote collapsed, the Tories were second because their share of the vote was largely the same as 2010. 

I'd say that of the SNP were under pressure there, it's more likely to be from the Lib Dems than the Tories.

 

[PapofGlencoe]

It's a cocktail of timings.

 

The Tartan Tories up north are heading back to the Tories.  To win independence, the SNP have gone left.  

The Leave voters are wavering

The old are more against than they've ever been.  Over 70%.

The SNP voters won in 2007/11, not really independence supporters but competent government and wanted a change from Labour are not the same as the new Labour/SNP voters of 2015.  SNP have been in government a decade.  They're voters that get fed up.  They're wavering.

 

The left of centre Scots (Labour voters) are SNP now.

The young are SNP.

 

The leave voters and the old combined are the big problem.  long term it's fine but right now there is an issue.

Independence will come but in a third wind.  This one's fuddked.

 

Edited April 28, 2017 by PapofGlencoe

[the_fadiator]

51 minutes ago, aaid said:

The whole situation is confusing.  A lot of this assumes that the constitution is the single biggest factor in Scottish politics - it is - and that it trumps everything else - I'm not sure if does.

On that basis it follows that everyone who supports Indy will vote SNP, green voters will also vote SNP as they know that under FPTP they have no chance of winning.

It also follows that all Unionist voters will vote for the candidate that has the best chance of beating the SNP -above all else.   

I think that there is some chance of the first one happening but I'm not sure that the second necessarily applies,

If you're a Lib Dem supporter and you're pro-European, do you really want to increase the Tory majority?

Take the example of Aberdeenshire West which YouGov are predicting going to the Tories.   That's traditionally a Lib Dem seat.  In 2015, the Lib Dem vote collapsed, the Tories were second because their share of the vote was largely the same as 2010. 

I'd say that of the SNP were under pressure there, it's more likely to be from the Lib Dems than the Tories.

 

Aberdeenshire West's interesting as the Lib Dems got 21% in 2015 and 38% in 2010 (when they won). The national yougov figures would've had the Lib Dems on 8% in 2015. They obviously didn't poll 8% in Aberdeenshire West in 2015 and there's no reason to believe they'll poll the predicted national 7% in 2017 in this constituency. That'd be some collapse. Say the Lib Dems hold their vote at 21%, which is still a bad result for them. A Tory win would need to be from new young voters, a demographic that doesn't vote Tory, and Lib Dems from 2010 that voted SNP in 2015. Unlikely. The SNP got 41.6% in Aberdeenshire West last time, around the current yougov national poll figure. To lose it they'd have to lose SNP voters from 2015 to the Tories and see the already reduced 2015 Lib Dems move to Tory. I can't see it happening in sufficient numbers.

As it stands, I still think the SNP will be on around 50 seats. I'd be surprised if the SNP held any of Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, or Edinburgh West.

There could be enough Labour and UKIP voters switching to Tory in Dumfries and Galloway. The Tories didn't make any inroads on their vote in 2015 so a lot depends on Labour voters, assuming the SNP voters turn out.

For Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, the Tories are so close it only takes UKIP voters switching. It's hardest to see the SNP holding that one, though that's without having any local knowledge other than knowing Calum Kerr's viewed as a good, hard working MP.

For Edinburgh West, I could see SNP votes reducing and Labour and Tory voters lending the Lib Dems votes for anti-SNP motivations. That's the danger in other constituencies where there's one clear rival.

Turn out for the SNP and matching the 2015 numbers is going to be a huge factor in offsetting tactical voting.

Edited April 28, 2017 by the_fadiator

[weekevie04]

32 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

It's a cocktail of timings.

 

The Tartan Tories up north are heading back to the Tories.  To win independence, the SNP have gone left.  

The Leave voters are wavering

The old are more against than they've ever been.  Over 70%.

The SNP voters won in 2007/11, not really independence supporters but competent government and wanted a change from Labour are not the same as the new Labour/SNP voters of 2015.  SNP have been in government a decade.  They're voters that get fed up.  They're wavering.

 

The left of centre Scots (Labour voters) are SNP now.

The young are SNP.

 

The leave voters and the old combined are the big problem.  long term it's fine but right now there is an issue.

Independence will come but in a third wind.  This one's fuddked.

 

You also have 10 years of the SNP being in government and some will be tired of that too, but agree with a lot of what you say.

Edited April 28, 2017 by weekevie04

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

You also have 10 years of the SNP being in government and some will be tired of that too, but agree with a lot of what you say.

I understand what you say but of course the SNP haven't been in government for 10 years in Westminster and this is a Westminster election.  There's no doubt there is bleed-through effect from one election to another though. 

[weekevie04]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

I understand what you say but of course the SNP haven't been in government for 10 years in Westminster and this is a Westminster election.  There's no doubt there is bleed-through effect from one election to another though. 

And like wise, you are right ; but for the strangler/NO SECOND REFERENDUM crowd it'll no doubt be on one of their leaflets.

I think this leak in support will be minimal though. The polls for Indy/SNP have been fairly solid over the past few years (constantly in the 40s), and the ones who don't vote SNP in June will be the tartan Tories going home.