Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[aaid]

1 hour ago, FuNsTeR said:

she prefers the Tofu version allegedly 

Lots of things to legitimately have a go at her for, her sexuality is not one of them. 

[Ally Bongo]

Particularly on the day that Wings is sueing Kezia Dugdale for calling him a homophobe

He was asking for £10k after she said it in the record

Believe he will be asking for more since she said it in the Holyrood and involved the first minister along with TV etc

I have no idea who the fvck is advising her but they are not doing a very good job

The tweet was “Oliver Mundell is the sort of public speaker that makes you wish his dad had embraced his homosexuality sooner.”

 

[ShedTA]

5 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Particularly on the day that Wings is sueing Kezia Dugdale for calling him a homophobe

He was asking for £10k after she said it in the record

Believe he will be asking for more since she said it in the Holyrood and involved the first minister along with TV etc

I have no idea who the fvck is advising her but they are not doing a very good job

The tweet was “Oliver Mundell is the sort of public speaker that makes you wish his dad had embraced his homosexuality sooner.”

 

ha ha, that's not homophobic, its actually quite amusing!

[Toepoke]

2 hours ago, Parklife said:

 

That's twice you've used the language of the Daily Mail in this thread. 

Sometimes even the Mail gets it right  

PS - I hope Corbyn actually becomes PM but they're gonna get scutched....

 

[Caledonian Craig]

Labour under Corbyn's leadership is just too weak. Nothing as such against him but he doesn't come across as a strong enough personality and that is what people vote on a lot now. May talks big and hard over Europe and that turns on a lot of the Brexit voters. I cannot see Labour breaking the Tory stranglehold.

[ErsatzThistle]

Got an interesting leaflet through the door today from Blair McDougall - who is now Labour's candidate in East Ren. Seemingly this election is all about beating the nasty SNP rather than the Conservatives.

Seen that Ian "I'll give such a doing" Davidson is the Labour candidate in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. Although there is zero chance of him winning there.

[aaid]

4 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Particularly on the day that Wings is sueing Kezia Dugdale for calling him a homophobe

He was asking for £10k after she said it in the record

Believe he will be asking for more since she said it in the Holyrood and involved the first minister along with TV etc

I have no idea who the fvck is advising her but they are not doing a very good job

The tweet was “Oliver Mundell is the sort of public speaker that makes you wish his dad had embraced his homosexuality sooner.”

 

Just catching up on FMQs, jeez-oh that was some desperate stuff from Kezia Dugdale.  

[Ally Bongo]

I wonder how the wee yin is going to play the Tory Manifesto

Not only will there not be a Scottish Referendum until well after after the terms of Brexit are known but it will be when the UK is out of the EU

And even then Westminster will be the judge of whether there is a second referendum wanted by the people of Scotland.

It wont be sending 50 plus MPs to Westminster

It wont be majority of pro Independence parties in Holyrood never mind a motion passed by the Scottish Parliament

 

[aaid]

Just now, Ally Bongo said:

I wonder how the wee yin is going to play the Tory Manifesto

Not only will there not be a Scottish Referendum until well after after the terms of Brexit are known but it will be when the UK is out of the EU

And even then Westminster will be the judge of whether there is a second referendum wanted by the people of Scotland.

It wont be sending 50 plus MPs to Westminster

It wont be majority of pro Independence parties in Holyrood never mind a motion passed by the Scottish Parliament

 

I think it's all just general posturing which won't have any material impact on if and she there's a second referendum.  It - the Tory manifesto - the sort of thing which on the surface sounds like it's a strong statement but actually is meaningless.  It'll play well to the "No surrender to a second referendum" crowd though.

The realpolitik though that there's a constitutional crisis looming and pressure will build on the Tory UK government to grant the section 30.   That's been the case since the Brexit vote.  All that's changed is that up until now it was NS who was being asked "when will there be a second referendum" at every opportunity and now it will be Theresa May and Ruth Davidson.  Assuming Corbyn doesn't win that is. 

[hampden_loon2878]

On 14/05/2017 at 11:00 PM, Ally Bongo said:

YouGov poll 9/10th May

Surprisingly not much being said about it

SNP 46% (+5)

Tories 26% (NC)

Labour 14% (-5)

Lib Dems 11% (+2%)

UKIP 2% (WTF)

Greens 1 %

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fko52um47n/TimesResults_170510_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

Are there any scottish polls coming out shortly and not just sub sample polls? There was 4 in April. Theres not even one this month so far

[Toepoke]

This ITV leaders' debate is a bit bizarre, only one of the 5 has candidates in over half the seats...

 

[aaid]

I reckon Leanne Wood is going to do Nuttall before the night is out. 

[exile]

Can't understand why Corbyn didn't seize this chance to talk directly to the people of Britain.

Every time we see him on TV he is just talking to Labour activists, or else a Tory PM at PMQs.

in an election where many people think it's a foregone conclusion, people may be more than usually tempted to shop around, and the smaller parties have a chance to pick up votes at the expense of Labour.  

 

[aaid]

1 minute ago, exile said:

Can't understand why Corbyn didn't seize this chance to talk directly to the people of Britain.

Every time we see him on TV he is just talking to Labour activists, or else a Tory PM at PMQs.

in an election where many people think it's a foregone conclusion, people may be more than usually tempted to shop around, and the smaller parties have a chance to pick up votes at the expense of Labour.  

 

I guess the thinking was that he's positioning himself as one of the only two potential candidates for PM and so didn't want to allow himself to be undermined by appearing on the same panel as the "also rans".

I suppose they also had in mind when Ed Milliband was on the "challengers debate" in 2015 and got a bit of a hard time from Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and Natalie Bennett.    I also suspect that they're wary of the whole "coalition of chaos" meme, which would be exploited if he was seen to agree with Tim Farron or - specifically - Nicola Sturgeon on anything.  

Corbyn's not great in those situations either, he comes across much better in either a 1-1 sofa-style interview or speaking to a large audience of supporters.

That said, he missed a great opportunity to have a free go at the Tories.

 

 

 

[exile]

14 minutes ago, aaid said:

I guess the thinking was that he's positioning himself as one of the only two potential candidates for PM and so didn't want to allow himself to be undermined by appearing on the same panel as the "also rans".

I suppose they also had in mind when Ed Milliband was on the "challengers debate" in 2015 and got a bit of a hard time from Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and Natalie Bennett.    I also suspect that they're wary of the whole "coalition of chaos" meme, which would be exploited if he was seen to agree with Tim Farron or - specifically - Nicola Sturgeon on anything.  

Corbyn's not great in those situations either, he comes across much better in either a 1-1 sofa-style interview or speaking to a large audience of supporters.

That said, he missed a great opportunity to have a free go at the Tories.

 

 

 

Agreed, the coalition of chaos /also rans is a factor, but surely he needs to shore up an eroding support against leakage to the lib dems and greens? or if you're in wales, and tired of labour, take a punt on plaid?

But the main thing is that he complains he is unfairly recommended on the media. Here's a chance to talk directly to the people on the sofa without getting, a second later, a sarcy comment from Laura K or some other punter (like the BBC brazenly calling it a tax and spend manifesto - editorialising passing off as news)

 

Edited May 18, 2017 by exile

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I reckon Leanne Wood is going to do Nuttall before the night is out. 

He called her Natalie  

[King Of Paisley]

Nuttall simply looks like the by product if Ade Edmondson and Al Murrray - Pub Landlord had copped off

[Ally Bongo]

14 hours ago, DonnyTJS said:

 

Reading this from a distance and, blissfully, missing out on most of the discussion, I get the impression that it's not quite the same as IndyRef2 in that the referendum they are proposing will be on the final deal (with a 'remain' option), which, for obvious reasons, isn't exactly the SNP's position on the independence referendum. Mildly hypocritical rather than full-frontal hypocrisy.

It's still a daft idea though. In the unlikely scenario that it became a coalition-government policy following the GE, it would be in the EU's interests to make the deal as shitty as possible for the UK (assuming they would prefer the UK to remain).

Stu from Bathgate's call to Willie Rennie is really good - even if you hate the Rev Stu

https://wingsoverscotland.com/willie-and-me/

[King Of Paisley]

Fluffy blustering under pressure on Scotland Tonight

[Haggis_trap]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

I wonder how the wee yin is going to play the Tory Manifesto

It is cool - brexit is going to be a disaster.
My guess is no deal from the EU.
Whoever makes future case for the union is going to have to justify that :-)

I can smell their fear - and YES isn't even at 50% in the polls just yet.
The long game is playing out well.

Edited May 18, 2017 by Haggis_trap

[weekevie04]

Times/YouGov

Scotland W'minster VI Poll.

SNP 42% (+1)

Con 29% (+1)

Lab 19% (+1)

LD 6% (-1)

Grn 2% (-1)

UKIP 1% (-1) changes from 3 weeks ago

In terms of seats SNP 47 (-9) Con 8 (+7) Con gains inc Moray, Perth & North Perthshire and East Renfrewshire

 

[Hertsscot]

5 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

Times/YouGov

Scotland W'minster VI Poll.

SNP 42% (+1)

Con 29% (+1)

Lab 19% (+1)

LD 6% (-1)

Grn 2% (-1)

UKIP 1% (-1) changes from 3 weeks ago

In terms of seats SNP 47 (-9) Con 8 (+7) Con gains inc Moray, Perth & North Perthshire and East Renfrewshire

 

That would still be 80% of the seats.  A landslide from any reasonable point of view - though of course it would be portrayed  by the Unionists and their tame right wing press as a massive setback to independence.

[King Of Paisley]

6 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

Times/YouGov

Scotland W'minster VI Poll.

SNP 42% (+1)

Con 29% (+1)

Lab 19% (+1)

LD 6% (-1)

Grn 2% (-1)

UKIP 1% (-1) changes from 3 weeks ago

In terms of seats SNP 47 (-9) Con 8 (+7) Con gains inc Moray, Perth & North Perthshire and East Renfrewshire

 

Worth remembering that in the likes of the 87 and 92 election Kinnock was leading in every opinion poll but things changed dramatically on polling day as the likes of Essex boy simply couldn't and wouldn't hold their noses and vote out an unpopular government. You'd like to think the same effect would happen up here when people wake up to what is in May's manifesto. And Scots do not like being lectured by Tories with no mandate up here to determine when indyref2 will take place.

[Toepoke]

I can still see the likes of Angus Robertson being re-elected when it comes to the crunch.

[DonnyTJS]

2 hours ago, King Of Paisley said:

Worth remembering that in the likes of the 87 and 92 election Kinnock was leading in every opinion poll but things changed dramatically on polling day as the likes of Essex boy simply couldn't and wouldn't hold their noses and vote out an unpopular government. You'd like to think the same effect would happen up here when people wake up to what is in May's manifesto. And Scots do not like being lectured by Tories with no mandate up here to determine when indyref2 will take place.

For what it's worth, that certainly wasn't what the polls were saying in 1987 (far closer in '92, to be sure). It wasn't just Essex boy that kept Thatcher in power in '87 (obviously). Kinnock, imho, was nothing like Corbyn. He (Kinnock) had been crippled in the eyes of many by his ineffectual leadership of the Labour movement during the miners' strike. He was a good rhetorician (in a rather out-dated way), but was moving the party increasingly to the centre and leaving the left as a vacuum that enabled Militant to dominate the headlines. Plus he was up against a Tory PM who was far more convincing to her supporters than May. 

A great deal had changed by 1992, but Kinnock was well past his sell-by-date by then and Major was underestimated by many. He'd taken over from Thatcher during a national crisis of sorts - the first Iraq war build up - but handled that much more effectively than May has dealt with the (admittedly trickier) hand that she's found herself with.

What relevance any of that really has to the current political scene, I don't know, but I'd be surprised if this were a Tory landslide nationally or that the SNP lost more than one or two seats. Corbyn is nothing like as compromised as Kinnock, and comes across as a decent bloke, while May only matches Thatcher in her ability to annoy the hell out of most rational human beings.

 

Edited May 19, 2017 by DonnyTJS