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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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16 minutes ago, killiefaetheferry said:

Survey Monkey ?. You do know you'd be as well (from twitter) basing the same article on a conversation overheard at the bus stop or a show of hands at the bingo ?

I hope yer right and it is a poll to be dismissed,, seriously starting to get the jitters,,, 

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I see the SNP winning 45 to 50 seats. I'd say that would be a damned fine result as well though the media would do their best to paint it another way. First of all lets remember these pertinent facts:-

Firstly, the Tories (from the outset) have made this election about being an us and them vote and have been begging for unionists to throw all their eggs into the Tory basket.

Secondly, since a second referendum is on the agenda then unionists WILL vote tactically in any which way they can to thwart the SNP.

Thirdly, the SNP have been in power for around a decade now so you'd expect some voters now to vote for change purely for change sake.

Therefore if the SNP weigh in with 45 to 50 seats then that is a very strong result considering how much there is against them doing this. A loss of around 5 seats is not the resurrection of the Tories despite what the media will say but more of tactical voting by unionists.

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Stuff like this makes me wonder how well the SNP are doing in some places ; yet the same time Wishart's majority was 50%/10,000 votes and the Tories got 33% in 2015 - you'd think that is almost PEAK Tory? . Although I do think Robertson will keep his seat (he's back to odds on fav ahead of Ross - evens) both were 5/6 for a good time.

 

 

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I think the polls had the SNP on 43-46% before the election in 2015, so if the SNP get another wee 3-4% boost of punters on the day then that certainly would help if the polling average for them at present is about 42% and would make a big difference if they could hold on to some vital seats e.g NE Fife, Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine, and so on.

There's also the chance that Unionists may well not know who to vote for in the likes of NE Fife, Dunbartonshire East, East Renfrewshire and even Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine is 1/5 to go Tory yet it was  Lib seat for years - some may go Tory but surely some will break for the SNP and back to the Libs too

Some bookies are all over the place too! East Lothian which seems to be Labour's best chance of gaining it back - they were 10/1 a few weeks back behind the SNP and Tories, and I think now 9/2.

Plenty of money to (hopefully) be made. Also, likes of Wales, Birmingham, Newcastle etc I think Lab will hold most of their urban seats in England and Wales.

Edited by weekevie04
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1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

Stuff like this makes me wonder how well the SNP are doing in some places ; yet the same time Wishart's majority was 50%/10,000 votes and the Tories got 33% in 2015 - you'd think that is almost PEAK Tory? . Although I do think Robertson will keep his seat (he's back to odds on fav ahead of Ross - evens) both were 5/6 for a good time.

 

 

I still say the SNP will hold onto most of their seats and may even oust Carmichael & Fluffy too

Perth is a complete hotbed of Yoonery - even worse than Aberdeen - but i just think there is nothing more to it than the launch being in his constituency

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10 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

I still say the SNP will hold onto most of their seats and may even oust Carmichael & Fluffy too

Perth is a complete hotbed of Yoonery - even worse than Aberdeen - but i just think there is nothing more to it than the launch being in his constituency

Never going to happen, fluffy will romp his seat as will carmicheal,, mr whishart will do well to hold his seat, as with whiteford, salmond and robertson,,, caithness is going to be close,, funnily enough i see aberdeen remaining yellow, 

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1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

Stuff like this makes me wonder how well the SNP are doing in some places ; yet the same time Wishart's majority was 50%/10,000 votes and the Tories got 33% in 2015 - you'd think that is almost PEAK Tory? . Although I do think Robertson will keep his seat (he's back to odds on fav ahead of Ross - evens) both were 5/6 for a good time.

Take a look at Perth & North Perthshire general election results from 2001, 2005 and 2010.

It was always a narrow win for the SNP. Never a safe seat by any means. Wishart has beaten them before in a tight race and can do it again.

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10 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

I still say the SNP will hold onto most of their seats and may even oust Carmichael & Fluffy too

Perth is a complete hotbed of Yoonery - even worse than Aberdeen - but i just think there is nothing more to it than the launch being in his constituency

Never going to happen, fluffy will romp his seat as will carmicheal,, mr whishart will do well to hold his seat, as with whiteford, salmond and robertson,,, caithness is going to be close,, funnily enough i see aberdeen remaining yellow, 

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William Hill

SNP to win every seat - still only 100/30

SNP to win over 39 seats - 1/9

Under 46.5 seats 5/6

Over 46.5 seats 5/6

Mundell is 1/6 to win his seat - SNP are 7/2

Carmichael is 1/4 to win his seat - SNP are 3/1

SNP and Tories are tied at 5/6 to win Perth & North Perthshire (Wishart)

SNP are 4/5 to win Moray. Tories are 10/11 (Robertson)

Salmond is 1/8 to win his seat. Tories are 7/2

Swinson is 4/7 to win East Dunbartonshire for the Lib Dems. John Nicolson is 6/4 - this is the bet of the Election. Will be fvcking incredible if that lying harpie Swinson wins

Tories are 4/5 to win East Renfrewshire. SNP are 5/4 (Kirsten Oswald)

Eilidh Whiteford is 1/3 to win Banff - Tories are 9/4

Murray is 4/6 to win Edinburgh South. SNP are 5/2

There is money to be made

When it comes down to it on the day are people really going to vote for a Tory/Libdem/Labour backbencher instead of an SNP MP ?

 

Edited by Ally Bongo
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2 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

Stuff like this makes me wonder how well the SNP are doing in some places ; yet the same time Wishart's majority was 50%/10,000 votes and the Tories got 33% in 2015 - you'd think that is almost PEAK Tory? . Although I do think Robertson will keep his seat (he's back to odds on fav ahead of Ross - evens) both were 5/6 for a good time.

 

 

The SNP were polling steady 49 before 2015 GE WIKI has a good poll tracker,,and they were on the way up,, we are sadly going the other direction this time

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The SNP gave the ground up by moving left. That is why the tories are doing well in Scotland. Occupy the center is now just a meaningless phrase to the SNP. They say but when it comes to rightward adjustments in policy they simply cant do them, they always tack left, never right.

It is just talk they are not centre they are left.

All left and no right = left not centre. Reap what you sow.

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3 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

Thplinthy, Scunnered used to tell the TAMB that the SNP were right wing. Can you two sort this out for me please?

The SNP are not left and they are not right. You drive them left and SNP folk will vote right, you drive them right and SNP folk will vote left. The are like this wheeble wobbles political party that does not like to be pushed left or right. And if they are not that is how they should be.

The SNP are a microcosm of the future Scottish Parliament should she win the Yes. Preserve that balance and then splinter gracefully upon victory. Not before.

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The SNP are going to be infiltrated by people determined to take them down the road of an early referendum wipe out. Watch out for them. The only way the SNP go into the second one is if lead by the Scottish people demanding it. And that means the polls consistently show 60%+ in favour of it for at least 2 years... at least.

I welcome the retraction in SNP support. It is realistic. 

Edited by thplinth
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3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The SNP are not left and they are not right. You drive them left and SNP folk will vote right, you drive them right and SNP folk will vote left. The are like this wheeble wobbles political party that does not like to be pushed left or right. And if they are not that is how they should be.

The SNP are a microcosm of the future Scottish Parliament should she win the Yes. Preserve that balance and then splinter gracefully upon victory. Not before.

Agree completely,, thats where salmond was a master, he managed to apeal left and right,, loved his political stance,, sturgeon is leaning left which is worrying many, especially buisness backers,,,I honestly dont think sturgeon is up to it and it worrys me how much folk she will drive away. 

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2 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The SNP are not left and they are not right. You drive them left and SNP folk will vote right, you drive them right and SNP folk will vote left. The are like this wheeble wobbles political party that does not like to be pushed left or right. And if they are not that is how they should be.

The SNP are a microcosm of the future Scottish Parliament should she win the Yes. Preserve that balance and then splinter gracefully upon victory. Not before.

Yeah, but some of your posts seem to want the independence movement to become "populist"   ...I'll use a gentle word.

I agree absolutely with you above though.

 

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Just now, Grim Jim said:

Yeah, but some of your posts seem to want the independence movement to become "populist"   ...I'll use a gentle word.

I agree absolutely with you above though.

 

Intriguing.. Can you explain. Genuinely curious.

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Jeez, you've too many posts for me to be arsed searching thought to see what was said before.  (Yeah. gave up after a measly 2 seconds :( )  I have the impression that some of your posts advocated a right wing stance to capture (in my mind) right wing elements in Scotland. Maybe some low hanging fruit, as it were?   Too far for me, personally.

Edited by Grim Jim
spelling :-/
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