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Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15


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8 minutes ago, sbcmfc said:

It does seem to be split very much on a unionist/non unionist front in Scotland.

Ive made the suggestion to some more open minded folk that the SNP are the best party to represent Scottish interests at Westminster, regardless of your thoughts on independence.

Its almost portrayed that a vote for SNP is a vote for independence, which it isn't.

That is very much an over-looked point here.

I mean if Tory and Labour won a gaggle of seats (say 20+) we all know how they would simply pander to what big brother party wants at Westminster over Brexit and other issues. A vote fort Tory and Labour and LibDem just now is a vote for Westminster policies only.

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I have an ominous feeling about the whole thing. Hoping for a hung parliament with SNP holding onto 45-50 seats.

But I think the Tories will increase their majority between 30 and 100 seats and the SNP will suffer from a lack of a clear message/corbyn effect/unionist caterwauling to win somewhere in high 30s

Feck I hope I am wrong

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51 minutes ago, min said:

The SNP had a 26% gap over their nearest rivals in 2015 when 50% voted SNP versus 24% for Labour. If the polls are to be believed, the Labour vote in Scotland has held firm and there's been a 10% swing from SNP to Tory.

 

Right got you. So hard not see the SNP losing seats here. However if you are going to lose points to a rival it is better to lose them to the weaker rival. 10 points back to Labour would have been far more damaging. You'd have to study how many SNP majorities were thin and are going to get caught up. This is a tricky one all right.

I am trying to get my head around the 10% who voted SNP last time and now are voting tory. I wonder what is driving that. I certainly think the SNP missed a big chance to prove they can be right as well as left by not following the increase to higher rate of tax band but that can't explain this alone. I think it must have been the decision to call for indy2 vote. They felt safe voting SNP post NO but now the reluctance is back... funny one.

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My fear is that the polsters have manipulated the polling to make the snp feel stronger than they are,, if you look at the polling in the last 12 months there was a 5 point drop in snp support over night basically it averaged 47% and then dropped to 42% i hope i am wrong but insee snp on 38% at the end of the night 

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SNP 45

Tories 8

LibDems 4

Labour 2

 

SNP will be doing well to hang on to 45 IMO. Going to be an uncomfortable night but we've known the next General Election was always going to be a sair wan. Take comfort in this though: it's better for the SNP to get a bloody nose now than 3/4 years down the line. It's just a shame we can't pick and choose which SNP MPs lose their seats because there's more than a few I'd like to see the back of. Unfortunately one or two decent ones will lose their seats tonight.

All in all, it's likely to be a tough night. Stock up on the beers and tough it out. Fingers crossed for a solid core vote, a strong Labour vote down south and Scottish Labour left looking like the morons they are. 

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29 minutes ago, JECK said:

This has caught my eye on sky bet  - 66/1

Cons 335 - 370

Lab 215-240

snp fewer than 50

lib dems fewer than 8

Plaid less than 3

ukip 0

Thoughts?

Think Plaid will get at least 3.

Might try and come up with a couple of request a bets seeing as its open.

Picked this one for now:

Labour to win at least 261

Tories to win at least 301

SNP at least 46

 

11/1

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17 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

My fear is that the polsters have manipulated the polling to make the snp feel stronger than they are,, if you look at the polling in the last 12 months there was a 5 point drop in snp support over night basically it averaged 47% and then dropped to 42% i hope i am wrong but insee snp on 38% at the end of the night 

:lol: 

You're consistent, i'll give you that! 

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56 minutes ago, JECK said:

This has caught my eye on sky bet  - 66/1

Cons 335 - 370

Lab 215-240

snp fewer than 50

lib dems fewer than 8

Plaid less than 3

ukip 0

Thoughts?

Plaid less than three might trip you up there.  I expect them to hold the three they have and pick up Rhonnda. 

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27 minutes ago, Donaldo87 said:

Think Plaid will get at least 3.

Might try and come up with a couple of request a bets seeing as its open.

Picked this one for now:

Labour to win at least 261

Tories to win at least 301

SNP at least 46

 

11/1

Labour to get atleast 251 not 261.

Edited by Donaldo87
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1 hour ago, min said:

The SNP had a 26% gap over their nearest rivals in 2015 when 50% voted SNP versus 24% for Labour. If the polls are to be believed, the Labour vote in Scotland has held firm and there's been a 10% swing from SNP to Tory.

 

That's far too simplistic. What you're seeing is Labour losing Unionist votes to the Tories.  You saw that first of all in 2016 in the HR election and that was repeated in the council elections.   Late in the day you're seeing some movement from the SNP to Labour that is Corbyn inspired.   

In terms of swing you're correct but not in terms of where the votes are moving to.

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2 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's far too simplistic. What you're seeing is Labour losing Unionist votes to the Tories.  You saw that first of all in 2016 in the HR election and that was repeated in the council elections.   Late in the day you're seeing some movement from the SNP to Labour that is Corbyn inspired.  

In terms of swing you're correct but not in terms of where the votes are moving to.

So Unionist are voting for the tory scum party to save their beloved Union even with their manifesto and their past history in Scotland, a leader who if I was in Brussels would be praying for a tory win as she hasn't got a clue. Lost for words if honest

 

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I've got 73 constituency bets on! Christ, went a bit mad last night just a few £1-2.50 ones.

Jumped on Libs (at the time) under 29 seats at 5/6 plus the Tories to win St Ives 11/8 (weeks ago).  I doubt anyone is interested so I'll refrain from posting up the 72 odd constituencies ;) but I won about £200 from £50 last time and hoping for the same especially if it's such a shite result with a Tory majority.

Plaid under 3.5 at 5/6. Although I'm not sure about that. I think they'll keep their three seats plus possibly win Yns Mon.

Haven't really touched Scotland, but Labour in East Lothian at 20/1 (again, weeks ago pre-Corbyn bounce).

No idea really about the SNP and how they'll perform. I'm fearing a bad night and a bit of apathy/low turnout and previous SNP voters going elsewhere e.g tartan Tories going there and socialist/Green/Yessers going Labour, but hope I'm proved wrong.

As regards the SNP night, I thought last week something like :

SNP 50 plus seats - a tremendous night, and just as good as 2015

45-49 - very, very good night.

40-44 - decent enough

29-39 - not great and definitely been squeezed.

 

Edited by weekevie04
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8 minutes ago, Govanhill Jacobite said:

So Unionist are voting for the tory scum party to save their beloved Union even with their manifesto and their past history in Scotland, a leader who if I was in Brussels would be praying for a tory win as she hasn't got a clue. Lost for words if honest

 

Unionists would vote to have a testicle or breast removed if it meant it preserved the union. Me? I really don't get the connection? In the union or out of it the countries geographically remain the sdame, cities and towns remain the same, my friendships with those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland remain the same, my social life/habits remain the same and  such-like. The difference is Scotland gets to govern itself.

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1 hour ago, min said:

 

That's the worrying thing for me. If 60% of the Scottish electorate vote for unionist parties, what message does that give compared to 2014.

Remember 16&17 Year olds and EU citz cant vote in this election,

There are 300000, EU citz in Scotland. around 100.000 16-17 ..

 70% of these people vote for the guid guys. 

these no's wont be counted tonight, but hey are there for Indy

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3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Unionists would vote to have a testicle or breast removed if it meant it preserved the union. Me? I really don't get the connection? In the union or out of it the countries geographically remain the sdame, cities and towns remain the same, my friendships with those in England, Wales and Northern Ireland remain the same, my social life/habits remain the same and  such-like. The difference is Scotland gets to govern itself.

Doing a lot of agreeing the last few days:lol:

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19 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's far too simplistic. What you're seeing is Labour losing Unionist votes to the Tories.  You saw that first of all in 2016 in the HR election and that was repeated in the council elections.   Late in the day you're seeing some movement from the SNP to Labour that is Corbyn inspired.   

In terms of swing you're correct but not in terms of where the votes are moving to.

 

Of course it's simplistic - it has to be at this stage - votes will have moved all over the place. Best wait until the actual results are known before over-analysing.

Although, don't agree that there's been much movement from SNP to Labour recently - SNP have consistently been polling in the low 40's since the election was called. If anything there's been movement from Tories (who were 30%+ in some polls) back to Labour.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, stocky said:

Remember 16&17 Year olds and EU citz cant vote in this election,

There are 300000, EU citz in Scotland. around 100.000 16-17 ..

 70% of these people vote for the guid guys. 

these no's wont be counted tonight, but hey are there for Indy

 

Those people could vote in the local elections and those results were poor.

I just feel the last few months in general and the GE campaign in particular have been extremely disappointing from an SNP / Independence perspective.

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But I thought independence was about social justice?  So with Jeremy Corbyn socialist agenda and redistributing wealth then people would flock to that?

And Brexit was the reason for indyref2.  Being dragged out the EU would surely mean Lib Dem support as they are the most pro European party by far with an SNP muddle.

I don't get it.  Seems people just want to take back control regardless of economics, numbers and medium to long term impact.   I've heard that somewhere before.

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3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

I noticed the Record went with 43 seats for the SNP.

It's gonna piss down all day, turnout might be down a bit?....

 

You would normally expect that to favour the Tories. It is now all about getting folk out to vote. 

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6 minutes ago, Alan said:

But I thought independence was about social justice?  So with Jeremy Corbyn socialist agenda and redistributing wealth then people would flock to that?

And Brexit was the reason for indyref2.  Being dragged out the EU would surely mean Lib Dem support as they are the most pro European party by far with an SNP muddle.

I don't get it.  Seems people just want to take back control regardless of economics, numbers and medium to long term impact.   I've heard that somewhere before.

It is about social justice for some. For most it is about being able to govern your own country and choose your own destiny. For some it is about Scottish Nationalism. Many of the unionist parties supporters will vote against it due their British nationalism and some misconception that they will and have to stay British. (They would still be British after a Yes vote).

 

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16 minutes ago, Alan said:

But I thought independence was about social justice?  So with Jeremy Corbyn socialist agenda and redistributing wealth then people would flock to that?

And Brexit was the reason for indyref2.  Being dragged out the EU would surely mean Lib Dem support as they are the most pro European party by far with an SNP muddle.

I don't get it.  Seems people just want to take back control regardless of economics, numbers and medium to long term impact.   I've heard that somewhere before.

Let me guess. Is it Nazis? 

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