Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[Ally Bongo]

Anyone checked the postal votes because this is as fishy as fvck

Edited June 16, 2017 by Ally Bongo

[phart]

Have those numbers been run within the context of differing turn outs.

Edited June 16, 2017 by phart

[ParisInAKilt]

Don't think the SNP should wait anymore, as long as there is a majority supporting independence in Holyrood they should push through with another planned referendum. Assuming that's still their end game. 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Anyone checked the postal votes because this is as fishy as fvck

What's your point exactly?

[Ally Bongo]

8 minutes ago, aaid said:

What's your point exactly?

 

YesDay Scotland‏ @YesDayScotland

 

Has anyone seen the #GE2017 postal vote results? It's just that, well, we're kind of struggling to comprehend how @theSNP lost 476,867 votes

 

@YesDayScotland @theSNP

Maybe a YES journalist can source Scotland's postal vote results from #IDOX? Contact info via: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14478267.Concerns_raised_over_senior_Tory_MP_link_to_election_count_firm/ …

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by Ally Bongo

[Caledonian Craig]

I think when they say LOST postal votes they do noty mean in the physical term but just that around half a million less people voted SNP via postal vote.

[phart]

it's a smaller turnout with less electorate.

about 200k less people voted.

Edited June 16, 2017 by phart

[Orraloon]

36 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Don't think the SNP should wait anymore, as long as there is a majority supporting independence in Holyrood they should push through with another planned referendum. Assuming that's still their end game. 

They can't. They need permission from the folk at Westminster. Which, to me anyway, is one of the main reasons why we should be independent.

[ParisInAKilt]

6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

They can't. They need permission from the folk at Westminster. Which, to me anyway, is one of the main reasons why we should be independent.

Agreed, I'd be surprised though if May etc would genuinely reject another referendum. 

[Parklife]

It's amazing that the only elections that some SNP'er doesn't claim were rigged are all the ones where the SNP done better than expected. 

[scotlad]

I'm a bit surprised the overall electorate has decreased since 2015, considering the overall population has increased (I think). 

Obviously people will have died or moved away in that period but I would have thought that would be offset by people arriving or going on the electoral roll for the first time, e.g. 18 and 19 year-olds.

[Auld_Reekie]

13 minutes ago, Parklife said:

It's amazing that the only elections that some SNP'er doesn't claim were rigged are all the ones where the SNP done better than expected. 

Funny that, eh?

There's three reasons the SNP would be utterly mental for committing to another referendum:

1. There is significant hostility toward it right now, including soft Yes voters from 2014. Committing to one right now is a massive gamble.

2. It's far from clear that public support can be won round in the estimated time frame. Committing to one at this stage is a massive gamble.

3. Pretty much everyone accepted another couldnt/shouldnt be held until there was clear public support for both a referendum and independence (most talked in terms of at least 55%). Committing to one without that support is a massive gamble.

Since when did we all get so impatient and be willing to throw away all the sensible pre-conditions that came out of the last referendum? It's widely accepted we only get one more shot and we had to be very careful about when we took that opportunity. IMO, people are pissed at the GE result and thought the SNP would walk it meaning we were still in control of the agenda. SNP took a massive hit but still have lots of control over the agenda, but people no longer have the stomach to wait. Find it quite curious - not sure I'm quite ready to go all-in to be honest and gamble our possible last chance at it.

We're not close enough to winning popular support and I don't see that the independence prospectus has changed much. Currency, Europe, Immigration - all major issues that remain up in the air, even more so because of #brexit. It's totally unacceptable to have no convincing story on these issues before going again. And they aren't policies that can be drafted in the space of weeks - serious development work needs to go into them if they are to stand up to the propaganda machine of the British state.

[Govanhill Jacobite]

5 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Funny that, eh?

There's three reasons the SNP would be utterly mental for committing to another referendum:

1. There is significant hostility toward it right now, including soft Yes voters from 2014. Committing to one right now is a massive gamble.

2. It's far from clear that public support can be won round in the estimated time frame. Committing to one at this stage is a massive gamble.

3. Pretty much everyone accepted another couldnt/shouldnt be held until there was clear public support for both a referendum and independence (most talked in terms of at least 55%). Committing to one without that support is a massive gamble.

Since when did we all get so impatient and be willing to throw away all the sensible pre-conditions that came out of the last referendum? It's widely accepted we only get one more shot and we had to be very careful about when we took that opportunity. IMO, people are pissed at the GE result and thought the SNP would walk it meaning we were still in control of the agenda. SNP took a massive hit but still have lots of control over the agenda, but people no longer have the stomach to wait. Find it quite curious - not sure I'm quite ready to go all-in to be honest and gamble our possible last chance at it.

We're not close enough to winning popular support and I don't see that the independence prospectus has changed much. Currency, Europe, Immigration - all major issues that remain up in the air, even more so because of #brexit. It's totally unacceptable to have no convincing story on these issues before going again. And they aren't policies that can be drafted in the space of weeks - serious development work needs to go into them if they are to stand up to the propaganda machine of the British state.

I am right the next Holyrood election is not till 2021 and if we don't go for one in this parliament do you think the SNP and the greens will have enough seats to push another referendum though, Im not so sure which means we could be waiting another generation. Not saying that's the reason we should go for it although at 52 would like it in my life time LOL, but a genuine question as to your thoughts

[Ally Bongo]

6 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Funny that, eh?

There's three reasons the SNP would be utterly mental for committing to another referendum:

1. There is significant hostility toward it right now, including soft Yes voters from 2014. Committing to one right now is a massive gamble.

2. It's far from clear that public support can be won round in the estimated time frame. Committing to one at this stage is a massive gamble.

3. Pretty much everyone accepted another couldnt/shouldnt be held until there was clear public support for both a referendum and independence (most talked in terms of at least 55%). Committing to one without that support is a massive gamble.

Since when did we all get so impatient and be willing to throw away all the sensible pre-conditions that came out of the last referendum? It's widely accepted we only get one more shot and we had to be very careful about when we took that opportunity. IMO, people are pissed at the GE result and thought the SNP would walk it meaning we were still in control of the agenda. SNP took a massive hit but still have lots of control over the agenda, but people no longer have the stomach to wait. Find it quite curious - not sure I'm quite ready to go all-in to be honest and gamble our possible last chance at it.

We're not close enough to winning popular support and I don't see that the independence prospectus has changed much. Currency, Europe, Immigration - all major issues that remain up in the air, even more so because of #brexit. It's totally unacceptable to have no convincing story on these issues before going again. And they aren't policies that can be drafted in the space of weeks - serious development work needs to go into them if they are to stand up to the propaganda machine of the British state.

I think you have been reading/listening too much to the Yoons ! 

The plan was that once the implications of Brexit are known the people of Scotland would get the right to choose

Thats it - Nothing more to see - Still the plan

Typically the Yoon media pressed Sturgeon for a date so she had to go by Theresa's timescale on when brexit would be finalised

It wasnt definitive - just a guide. Could be 2 years, Could be 3 years

And since then every Yoon outlet and politician has been screaming Indyref 2, Indyref 2, Indyref 2 as if it's about to happen in the next few weeks

 

[aaid]

The SNP lost vote for three different reasons.

Firstly, primarily in the North East they lost votes directly to the Tories.  That's for a number of factors but the two main ones would be Brexit and also non-Indy supporting former SNP voters beiong opposed to a second referendum, if you wanted to look for that, you could see start in the 2016 HR elections.   Then there was a late Corbyn inspired bounce that saw them lose votes to Labour primarly in the Central Belt, however, these in the main would be Indy supporters or at least Indy-neutral, so that's an interesting dilemma for Scottish Labour.   So they were attacked on both flanks.   Then they seem to the be the party most impacted by the lower turnout.  I suspect that was for a couple of reasons, complacency and people not being particularly motivated to vote.  I suspect the bad weather on polling day didn't help here.

The Tories increased votes because of three reasons.  Firstly, they have hoovered most of up the hard-line Unionist vote - again you saw this in 2016.  Secondly, Ruth Davidson - as much as it pains me to say this - has done very well in turning around the perceptions of the Tories as a toxic brand in Scotland.  I might personally think its all style over substance but its hard to argue that it hasn't been successful.  Finally, they were the main beneficiaries of a massive amount of tactical voting.  

Essentially in 2015 the three Unionist parties were really caught on the hop by the SNP.   The Unionist vote wasn't anywhere near as split in 2017 as it was in 2015.    The best evidence for that is that the Lib Dem vote went down by 40k but they increased their seats from 1 to 4 

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by aaid

[Orraloon]

41 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Funny that, eh?

There's three reasons the SNP would be utterly mental for committing to another referendum:

1. There is significant hostility toward it right now, including soft Yes voters from 2014. Committing to one right now is a massive gamble.

2. It's far from clear that public support can be won round in the estimated time frame. Committing to one at this stage is a massive gamble.

3. Pretty much everyone accepted another couldnt/shouldnt be held until there was clear public support for both a referendum and independence (most talked in terms of at least 55%). Committing to one without that support is a massive gamble.

Since when did we all get so impatient and be willing to throw away all the sensible pre-conditions that came out of the last referendum? It's widely accepted we only get one more shot and we had to be very careful about when we took that opportunity. IMO, people are pissed at the GE result and thought the SNP would walk it meaning we were still in control of the agenda. SNP took a massive hit but still have lots of control over the agenda, but people no longer have the stomach to wait. Find it quite curious - not sure I'm quite ready to go all-in to be honest and gamble our possible last chance at it.

We're not close enough to winning popular support and I don't see that the independence prospectus has changed much. Currency, Europe, Immigration - all major issues that remain up in the air, even more so because of #brexit. It's totally unacceptable to have no convincing story on these issues before going again. And they aren't policies that can be drafted in the space of weeks - serious development work needs to go into them if they are to stand up to the propaganda machine of the British state.

You've got a lot of assumptions in there.

 

[Auld_Reekie]

20 minutes ago, Govanhill Jacobite said:

I am right the next Holyrood election is not till 2021 and if we don't go for one in this parliament do you think the SNP and the greens will have enough seats to push another referendum though, Im not so sure which means we could be waiting another generation. Not saying that's the reason we should go for it although at 52 would like it in my life time LOL, but a genuine question as to your thoughts

IMO, any referendum should be put off til 2020 at the earliest and even then, I would build everything round the 2021 Holyrood election. As you say, it's a massive election to ensure that the SNP still have a majority and control of Scottish politics. If public opinion appears to swing massively once brexit becomes clear then fair enough, but otherwise, I think the SNP should fight 2021 on a post-brexit independence referendum for 3 reasons:

1. It coalesces independence support around the SNP and helps ensure they win a majority in Holyrood. This should be the most important goal right now and bringing independence to the fore at that point maximises chances of an SNP government through to 2026.

2. It automatically implies a referendum should be held and ideally, SNP should be campaigning that the legislation for referendums is passed to Holyrood (giving them more control). 

3. The timing of the referendum is then under the full control of the SNP and depending on the post-brexit feeling can be done immediately or any time during the parliamentary session. Effectively could be 10 years since #indyref.

I accept people desperately want it to happen sooner but IMO, the priority right now is to win 2021 Holyrood elections. Jumping into a referendum on the chance the SNP might lose that election is wrong-headed and rash and risks killing off both the SNP and independence in one go. Let things settle for 3/4 years and then bring an independence referendum front and centre in the Holyrood election. If you ask me, the SNP can't lose in those circumstances unless independence is dead in the court of public opinion - and if that's true, a referendum is moot. 

[Auld_Reekie]

1 minute ago, Orraloon said:

You've got a lot of assumptions in there.

 

Nae sh*t?! lol We're amateur psephologists here and trying to predict the future... if you think there's anything other than predictions and assumptions, I think you are mistaken.

[Govanhill Jacobite]

4 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

IMO, any referendum should be put off til 2020 at the earliest and even then, I would build everything round the 2021 Holyrood election. As you say, it's a massive election to ensure that the SNP still have a majority and control of Scottish politics. If public opinion appears to swing massively once brexit becomes clear then fair enough, but otherwise, I think the SNP should fight 2021 on a post-brexit independence referendum for 3 reasons:

1. It coalesces independence support around the SNP and helps ensure they win a majority in Holyrood. This should be the most important goal right now and bringing independence to the fore at that point maximises chances of an SNP government through to 2026.

2. It automatically implies a referendum should be held and ideally, SNP should be campaigning that the legislation for referendums is passed to Holyrood (giving them more control).

3. The timing of the referendum is then under the full control of the SNP and depending on the post-brexit feeling can be done immediately or any time during the parliamentary session. Effectively could be 10 years since #indyref.

I accept people desperately want it to happen sooner but IMO, the priority right now is to win 2021 Holyrood elections. Jumping into a referendum on the chance the SNP might lose that election is wrong-headed and rash and risks killing off both the SNP and independence in one go. Let things settle for 3/4 years and then bring an independence referendum front and centre in the Holyrood election. If you ask me, the SNP can't lose in those circumstances unless independence is dead in the court of public opinion - and if that's true, a referendum is moot.

I hear what you are saying and was looking at a ref in around 2020 or 2021,The mood of the Country may well have changed by then and I also believe the GE has not helped as felt there were too many elections recently together  with the Indy ref and also Bretix which I think have scunnered people.

 

if we wait till another 3 to 4 years you have more young people to vote 

Im not in a big rush here but what worry's me is the Scottish Parliament is set up so one party does not hold power and if you are say lets wait till the next ref, we may never see another indy referendum for at least 30 odd years if not more

[ParisInAKilt]

15 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Yawn

Indeed. Hold on if there's some of us who don't agree with the SNP's brand of (in)dependence (NATO and EU etc) 

[Orraloon]

For me, it's not about whether we win or lose the next referendum, it's about doing what is the right thing to do. The people of Scotland have said they want to stay in the UK. They also said they want to stay in the EU. So far it would appear that we can't do both. I am not totally convinced that that is totally settled yet though? When the time comes that we are definitely going to leave the EU (Or possibly the "single market" might now be the deciding factor) that is when we should be given the choice. 

If the SNP were to deny the people having that choice (regardless of whether they think they can win or not) then they would lose all credibility, especially with the folk who have supported them over the past few decades. May was right when she said "now is not the time", the time will be when we have a better idea what is happening with brexit. That will be at least 2 years (maybe more) down the line. 

For the time being, I think the SNP should do nothing. Leave the section 30 request in place and wait for events to unfold.

[aaid]

16 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

 

If the SNP were to deny the people having that choice (regardless of whether they think they can win or not) then they would lose all credibility, especially with the folk who have supported them over the past few decades. May was right when she said "now is not the time", the time will be when we have a better idea what is happening with brexit. That will be at least 2 years (maybe more) down the line. 

 

Which is pretty much what Nicola Sturgeon has been saying since the EU referendum. 

[scoobydoo]

4 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Anyone checked the postal votes because this is as fishy as fvck

you would need to extrapolate how many postal votes there were for previous elections. Extrapolation doesn't work through tinfoil hats though.

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Essentially in 2015 the three Unionist parties were really caught on the hop by the SNP.   The Unionist vote wasn't anywhere near as split in 2017 as it was in 2015.    The best evidence for that is that the Lib Dem vote went down by 40k but they increased their seats from 1 to 4 

 

This time the unionist parties and voters were far more switched on tactically towards beating the SNP.  John Nicholson was on This Week last night and said while campaigning in East Dunbartonshire he never saw any publicity for Labour or the Tories, everything was about Jo Swinson and the LibDems.

 

58 minutes ago, Govanhill Jacobite said:

Im not in a big rush here but what worry's me is the Scottish Parliament is set up so one party does not hold power and if you are say lets wait till the next ref, we may never see another indy referendum for at least 30 odd years if not more

There will be another referendum when the people of Scotland want one.

Edited June 16, 2017 by Toepoke

[Orraloon]

17 minutes ago, aaid said:

Which is pretty much what Nicola Sturgeon has been saying since the EU referendum. 

It is indeed. She is a smart cookie, is oor Nicola.