Rumour of snap GE -announcement 11.15

[Orraloon]

15 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Oh gee another great Orraloon point.

2015 was a s bad as 2017 but they could have probably written any old guff and still ended up with 56 seats. 

 

I was just wondering if you had done it deliberately or got the dates mixed up. I haven't read them, obviously. As you said, not many folk do.

I wasn't intending to have a go at you. I was just interested in why you hadn't compared two general election manifestos.

 

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, phart said:

It's the same electorate mostly. Same folk you're addressing, what parliament is pretty irrelevant. Your manifesto talks to the people not the parliament and in both cases they remain vastly the same folk.

Yes, but the issues you fight the election on are different in each case because of the different legislative competencies of each parliament and so the content of the manifestos are naturally different.  

That is unless you fight a Westminster election primarily on devolved issues like the Tories and Labour just did in Scotland. 

[thplinth]

Self determination is the SNP's raison d'etre. It does not matter if it is a local, general or whatever election. It should be front and centre and explicit every time. Everything else is essentially a means to that end. Showing competence in government before having the referendum was a means to that end. One that did not ultimately swing it. Being in government now is almost pointless IMHO... and it probably is counter productive to the goal of YES down the road.

By reasserting this core purpose the SNP will rediscover their focus and direction (and enthusiasm) and find out how far or near they are to actually achieving their goal. If this means they lose their majority, good. Because I suspect that is what is going to be required before they ever have a chance of achieving a YES. Go back to first principles about why you believe in self determination, articulate it clearly and then shout it from the rooftops. People actually believe in it even if the SNP seem to have lost belief in it. Stop trying to be a jack of all political trades and master of none because you'll end up achieving nothing that way.

[phart]

28 minutes ago, aaid said:

Yes, but the issues you fight the election on are different in each case because of the different legislative competencies of each parliament and so the content of the manifestos are naturally different.  

That is unless you fight a Westminster election primarily on devolved issues like the Tories and Labour just did in Scotland. 

The issues are picked. As you demonstrate yourself. 

[thplinth]

38 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I was just wondering if you had done it deliberately or got the dates mixed up. I haven't read them, obviously. As you said, not many folk do.

I wasn't intending to have a go at you. I was just interested in why you hadn't compared two general election manifestos.

 

I was just going back in time to see the changes pre and post 2014 and pre and post Salmond. I don't think it makes much difference to the points being made. 

[Caledonian Craig]

Things have changed in that time though. Pre-the last referendum there was a build up of a big push for independence because the referendum was the goal. After the no vote there was nothing because we had our chance and blew it basically. Everywhere it was thought it had been put to bed with no more indyrefs anywhere on the horizon until last year's surprise result in the Brexit vote suddenly changed things again. That is how I see it anyway. All calls for independence had to be tempered after the deflating defeat somewhat and it was.

[thplinth]

Calling the vote last time was correct. We could not be sure of ever having the chance again. Maybe we never will. Plus in 300+ years the Scottish public had never been given a vote on the union. (What do you think the 1707 population would have voted if they had been given a chance? )

We lost but we were also cheated. So is that a loss? My feeling then as now was we were going to win it, it was palpable. If it had been even slightly balanced we would have won.

[Ally Bongo]

Today - after everything thats happened recently

Proposal was to scrap the 1% public service pay cap

 

[hampden_loon2878]

Has anyone seen the scottish survation sub sample results for uk voting intentions? ? I know its a sub sample but having the torys on 42% to the snp's 29% yes it will nit be to accurate but still sub samples can be an indication 

Edited July 1, 2017 by hampden_loon2878

[aaid]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Has anyone seen the scottish survation sub sample results for uk voting intentions? ? I know its a sub sample but having the torys on 42% to the snp's 29% yes it will nit be to accurate but still sub samples can be an indication 

One of the questions they always ask is how did you vote at the last election, ie three weeks ago.  That sample has way more people who voted Tory in it than actually voted Tory, so it's skewed.

There was another poll out today that had a subsample that showed SNP on  38%, Lab on 28% and Tories on 27%.

You'll notice that the UK wide polls are still all over the place. 

[hampden_loon2878]

Another you gov sub sample have Labour ut ahead in Scotland,, very grim and worrying,, can labour really mount a serious comeback in Scotland?  

Edited July 7, 2017 by hampden_loon2878

[Squirrelhumper]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Another you gov sub sample have Labour ut ahead in Scotland,, very grim and worrying,, can labour really mount a serious comeback in Scotland?  

Yes

[Squirrelhumper]

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

[Ally Bongo]

35 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

You do know that any Scottish Government is limited to what it can actually do ?

And this education "slump" is a convenient stick to beat the SNP based on one widely criticised method of assessing and comparing performance

[Squirrelhumper]

44 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

You do know that any Scottish Government is limited to what it can actually do ?

 

Yes, but thanks for informing me.

44 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

And this education "slump" is a convenient stick to beat the SNP based on one widely criticised method of assessing and comparing performance

Stick your head in the sand all you want, it's been over exaggerated but it's a problem. Unfortunately stuff like this loses votes.

[ParisInAKilt]

Doubt a political party can make the changes needed in Scotland while in the union (and arguably even when independent) so the swing back to Labour wouldn't be a surprise. 

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Yes, but thanks for informing me.

 

Lets hear some of the things then (within reason) you would like them to do that would satisfy you

Edited July 7, 2017 by Ally Bongo

[Toepoke]

6 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Another you gov sub sample have Labour ut ahead in Scotland,, very grim and worrying,, can labour really mount a serious comeback in Scotland?  

With Corbyn as leader maybe. Safe to say any upsurge in support isn't down to ScottIsh Labour.

[hampden_loon2878]

17 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

With Corbyn as leader maybe. Safe to say any upsurge in support isn't down to ScottIsh Labour.

It would be interesting to see if there is much difference between Westminster to holyrood voting intentions,, i dare say it will settle out snp 35 labour 30 and tory 25,,, those labour voters who went tory will no doubt find yheir way "home"

[Toepoke]

12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

It would be interesting to see if there is much difference between Westminster to holyrood voting intentions,, i dare say it will settle out snp 35 labour 30 and tory 25,,, those labour voters who went tory will no doubt find yheir way "home"

I'd say a lot of those ex Labour voters won't vote for the "IRA supporter Corbyn".

[aaid]

Colonel Ruth is obviously rattled.  Made a big deal about going off on holiday for two weeks and comes out today with a 36 tweet thread ranting about Douglas Chapman (SNP MP) asking a commons question about her being made honorary Colonel.   Must have touched a raw nerve there. 

[iainmac1]

22 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

There is no slump in education. It's a heap of nonsense.

[Grim Jim]

13 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

The SNP haven't done nearly enough whilst in power to be untouchable.

I've voted  SNP all my days and I'm even disappointed with them. They've taken votes for granted, same way that Labour did for years.

There's a massive % of SNP voters from 2015/2017 who are soft voters. They can and will change on a whim. The slump in education is one factor.

Or not banged on about?

http://derekbateman.scot/2017/07/04/the-day-job/

 

[Ally Bongo]

https://www.channel4.com/news/the-400000-donation-to-pro-brexit-campaign

[Hertsscot]

6 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://www.channel4.com/news/the-400000-donation-to-pro-brexit-campaign

May not be illegal but doesn't make it moral.  Interesting that they couldn't get Tory or DUP politicians on to defend the lack of transparency.