romanticscot Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 (edited) Lets get some threads on topic to discuss the rest of the campaign. With 4 games to go, we are 4 points behind 2nd place Slovakia and three points behind 3rd place Slovenia. We need to have 4 or more points better than Slovakia at this point and three or more points better than Slovenia. I think based on the remaining fixtures, Slovenia are a bigger threat based on that dire 3 nil loss, so we want to have 4 more points that them also. England play both of these teams at home, and yes they didn't look great yesterday but I believe they can beat both, Slovakia and Slovenia also play one another 4th September. Any result here helps our cause, a draw is the best result for us AT the time, but a Slovenia win is better for us going into the last game. Beat Lithuania and S and S draw means we have shorted that gap to 2 points off 2nd place. THEN we play Malta and England should beat Slovakia and Slovenia are likely to beat Lithuania. That then puts Slovenia on 15 points, us now into 3rd place with 14 points and Slovakia on 13 points. Two matches left to play but we are then 1 point off 2nd place, England play Slovenia and we we play Slovakia. This is going to be a hard game no doubt. England are highly likely going to beat Slovenia and is up to us to take our destiny in our own hands and beat Slovakia. Then its Scotland in 2nd with 17, Slovenia on 15 and Slovakia on 13. Beating Slovakia by 3 or more goals just isn't going to happen. Match day 4 is guaranteed 3 points for Slovakia, that is them on 16 BUT even if they beat Slovenia they end on 18 points. This is where that dumb 3 nil loss comes to haunt us, we have the pressure of needing to beat Slovenia so we end on 20 points. You never know, Slovenia and Lithuania could end a draw. We certainty don't own our destiny completely, but there are plenty scenario's available. We need England to beat both Slovenia and Slovakia at home. The fact remains we need to go on the best run of form we have had in 15 or so years. That draw yesterday does gain us a valuable point, we cannot un-do anything gone before however avoidable some of it seems in hind site. Looking over the ranking of 2nd placed teams for the last two world cups, and taking into consideration the points deducted from the last place teams the spread of top to bottom of those who made it range from 19 down to 11 points, We then conceivably could have 14 pts (best case scenario) and 12 pts (worst case scenario) - our best case scenario would have us in the around the middle of those groups combined but 12 points as us JUST making it. Looking at the current 2nd based teams, we should also be looking for another 3rd of 4th place team to end up in 2nd and having a low overall points tally also. Of those sitting in 3rd or 4th, I just had a look and teams we should be rooting for with who I believe to have a feasible chance of making up ground would be Turkey or Ukraine, Bosnia ( only 1 point off 2nd so maybe not a great contender), Wales, Czech Rep, Bulgaria or Netherlands. Edited June 11, 2017 by romanticscot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 T.L.D.R. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romanticscot Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 Sorry to hear that, maybe Twitter is more for you, anyone else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COLT NY Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 It's a good analysis.. A lot better than a lot of the pundits on the radio who don't even seem to know how many points we've got when they come into the studio to spout nonsense. There's no reason we can't win each of the next 4 games.... Whether we'll win all four is another matter. In order to qualify for the playoffs, I suspect we may have to win all four, although this analysis suggests that we may be able to get through even with a couple of dropped points. Every game's a must win though and it starts with Lithuania... One game at a time. Let's see what we can do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkieRobRoy Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 In other news, after getting the joint jumpin' on a Saturday afternoon (albeit 2 hours later than ideal) a quick glance at Saturday's programme tells me our next home gemme is v those classic crowd-pullers Malta. On a Monday. At 7.45pm. Thanks, UEFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Scotland beat Slovenia, Slovenia beat Slovakia, Slovakia beat Scotland. Scotland and Slovenia have both dropped points to Lithuania where Slovakia haven't, but both have picked up points against England while Slovakia haven't. There's nothing in it so far, Scotland are three or four behind because we've played England twice, while Slovenia have played Malta twice and Slovakia have played Lithuania twice. We need to beat Lithuania. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaz7 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Our next game is the biggest as when we win(unfounded optimism i know) we then have malta which should be a gimme and all of a sudden we are on 14 points and then onto winner takes all with slovakia and then same with slovenia. We can do this but we need at start of new season all our best players playing and playing well. we need imo replacement for snoddy (cairney?) and wee fraser and or phillips or burke to start the season on fire as i felt that we lacked an outball other than robertson on saturday. back to 4231 against the other teams if we can get 2 of those wingers starting the season well. Yes we were defensive with a 541 v england on saturday but that is how Wales played against everyone at euros and it worked for them. Against good teams which England are (unbeaten in 35 says it all) we need to go with same formation until we get better centre halfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoofitharder Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I dont think the team is playing that much better than at the start of the campaign but they seem to have a nit more belief in themselves.we were not that far off beating lithuania and we surely wont ever be as non competative as we were in slovakia.so 4 wins are achievable that will give us 20 points ave 2 a game that good form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JECK Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Just thinking back to the last campaign after the summer we picked up a pathetic 1 point (not counting Gibraltar). We can beat Lithuania away and Malta at home no question. Whether we can get the 6 points is another thing altogether. we can scrape past Slovakia at home on a given day yes. Slovenia away after a probable bruising encounter v Slovakia? Serious doubts about that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Its over guyz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoofitharder Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, JECK said: Just thinking back to the last campaign after the summer we picked up a pathetic 1 point (not counting Gibraltar). We can beat Lithuania away and Malta at home no question. Whether we can get the 6 points is another thing altogether. we can scrape past Slovakia at home on a given day yes. Slovenia away after a probable bruising encounter v Slovakia? Serious doubts about that one. My head agrees with you but my heart says we will win in lithuania and win our two home games coupled with england beating both the slovs means we go into the last game needing a drsw whereas they will need to win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazziessc Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 27 minutes ago, hoofitharder said: My head agrees with you but my heart says we will win in lithuania and win our two home games coupled with england beating both the slovs means we go into the last game needing a drsw whereas they will need to win Pretty much how I fancy it to transpire. Although knowing our luck one of Slovenia/Slovakia will beat England and it all up. Fancy us to win last two home games, it's quite conceivable that we will go unbeaten at home n still not get through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 (edited) I think we will get a hard earned win in Vilnius, then get the win to take us into the final games on a level peg with Slovakia and Slovenia. Saturday's result effectively wipes out the disappointing Lithuania result last year (as long as England beat Slovakia and Slovenia at Wembley) to get us back into things going into the final group of games (and if Slovenia and Slovakia can end their game v each other in a draw, that would be a BIG help for us). Problem is, at the moment I can not see us beating Slovakia and Slovenia...... I think we will beat one of them, but I do not think that is going to be enough. Edited June 12, 2017 by wanderer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handsome22Devil Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I love a bit of mindless optimism as much as the next person and only wish I shared the hope we could still do it but we're done, it's just not going to happen. Beating Lithuania at home or holding on against England wouldn't have had us on easy street right now but failure to do so means we have absolutely no margin for error in what's left. We'll beat Malta of course but other three remaining games are 50/50s...so realistically we need to win one massive away game to set up the next massive game and win that to get into a massive must win (or at best must not lose) decider away from home. And if anyone sees any evidence, rather than mere wishful thinking, that we can go on a run like that, they've not been watching the same campaigns as they rest of us. It is much more likely it will be over after Lithuania than the comeback be on...we've managed two goals there in six hours of football, winning once in four attempts. We haven't won a meaningful (Croatia, impressive as it was, was a dead rubber for us by then) game away to anyone other than absolute dross since Iceland in 2008 (and that was well before they were actually good, they took only five points in that campaign). We can analyse everything for the fun of it and argue the toss over the manager or which average player we stick in most positions but until we get two centre-backs from outside our current group up to something approaching the required level, we are going absolutely nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherps Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 It's simple, we need to win the next 4 games or we're relying on other results, and that never works for Scotland. You have to go back to Euro 2008 qualifying for the last time Scotland won 3 in a row, never mind 4, but as Saturday has proven again, anything can happen in football. Slovenia aren't that good a team, and the fact they've played Malta twice already, and had a surprising win against Slovakia, puts them in a "false" position in the group. If we go there on the last game needing to win, I'm confident it will happen. Slovakia are the only danger to our play-off hopes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefaetheferry Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I'm hopeful we are on an upwards curve. We are a better team with Tierney and Armstrong. They will probably both make mistakes but they have only played a few games at this level. Armstrong has the attributes to be excellent and I don't think he compared too badly with the top EPL players he was up against, but it was certainly a big step up in terms of quality of opposition for them both. Good to see Fraser on, we have Burke to come in, maybe Cairney........Leigh Griffiths had a good overall performance........reasons to be hopeful. Not sure it can all come together to win the next 4 but we at least have a bit of hope that our quality of player is starting to improve. The start of next season will be important as we see who is playing well, maybe Snodgrass will have a run of form. Maybe a world class centre half will magically appear as well . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bossman4 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Like others I'm hopefull that the tide is starting to turn again, mainly down the the fact the Strachan was forced into changing the team for a more attacking outlook. I actually thought we looked more of a threat at Wembley than we did on Saturday. We can win the last 4 games but for me much depends on how Strachan deals with the under performers like Snoddy and Anya. That was the biggest down fall in Georgia where he got to sentimental, I just hope he doesn't do that again. Will he stick with the 3 at the back for that game? Thought it worked well enough and we looked more dangerous going forward when Fraser came on. I would imagine Patterson will come into the right wing back postion of he does stick with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordyA88 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 3 hours ago, adamntg said: Scotland beat Slovenia, Slovenia beat Slovakia, Slovakia beat Scotland. Scotland and Slovenia have both dropped points to Lithuania where Slovakia haven't, but both have picked up points against England while Slovakia haven't. There's nothing in it so far, Scotland are three or four behind because we've played England twice, while Slovenia have played Malta twice and Slovakia have played Lithuania twice. We need to beat Lithuania. This!! I keep saying it we win in Lithuania we are back in the mix. It's not over yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceudmilefailte Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Bookies have us at 5/1 to be in top 2, 200/1 to win group! By my reckoning the odds on wins are 4/5 1/5 6/4 and 2/1 which is a lot more than 5/1 could draw a game and still get second but then probably not enough points So about 16/1 to make playoffs and 33/1 to qualify. Assuming we get a play off we can win. Don't get the plane booked just yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JECK Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 The more I've thought about it the more I've realised I am content with the situation. 4 wins is a massive test of these players and I want to see if they've got the metal/fight within them. 4 high pressure must win games, do we have strong minded leaders in the squad that will fight till the last minute and won't accept defeat? It's the same old - if you can't go away and beat Lithuania then you simply do not deserve to qualify. If you don't win a home game v Slovakia then you don't really deserve to be there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langtonian Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 What is it,3 wins in our last 11 qualifiying games with two of these wins against Gib and Malta.The chance of us winning our remaining 4 games is slim to zero as is actually securing 2 nd place in the group Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reevesy Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I believe it will go down to the final game and we'll win the next 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyGC Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Just have this looming feeling that Lithuania will be another Malta moment. Think I heard they play on an astro pitch? Really hope this won't affect the players performances, managers now-a-days always moan that it makes a big difference, does it?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northernscum Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 59 minutes ago, Langtonian said: What is it,3 wins in our last 11 qualifiying games with two of these wins against Gib and Malta.The chance of us winning our remaining 4 games is slim to zero as is actually securing 2 nd place in the group Aye, that would be a fair point IF the results of the games that have gone in the past had any bearing whatsoever on the 4 games we have still to play. The thing that WILL matter is...[1] How the players in the squad are performing come September/October. [2] Whether the manager decides to put us out in a formation and with the self belief that wins are all that can be considered from now on in & [3] Some luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doric Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 (edited) 7 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said: Bookies have us at 5/1 to be in top 2, 200/1 to win group! By my reckoning the odds on wins are 4/5 1/5 6/4 and 2/1 which is a lot more than 5/1 could draw a game and still get second but then probably not enough points So about 16/1 to make playoffs and 33/1 to qualify. Assuming we get a play off we can win. Don't get the plane booked just yet 33 to 1 to qualiify. Got £7 on it. Edited June 12, 2017 by Doric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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