Bobby Russell's Lovechild Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 According to Strachan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Has Strachan ever called a game a "must win"? Seem to recall did he not say Georgia away was not a must win match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Folk fascinated by this stupid fecking phrase really frustrate me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgsct Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I understand Strachan is attempting to take pressure off players but if he believes 10 points may be enough then he and his staff have completely failed to grasp the qualification format. I was looking at this from a betting angle. If you think Scotland will qualify you are better to back them to win all games individually and then win the play-off. they are best price 33-1 to qualify. Scotland currently have less points than any other runner-up and have the worst goal difference, if it stays that way, they wouldn't get a play-off spot. Even if Scotland take 12 points from the last four games, they will still require results to go their way elsewhere , detailed below To even finish runner-up in their own group they require Slovakia and Slovenia to drop points before the end of the campaign. This is pretty likely as they play each other and both play England away. Realistically, to avoid being the worst placed runner-up, along with gaining 12 points from the last four games, they will also require ONE of the following, Sweden to take 6 points or less from their final 3 games Montenegro to take 9 points or less from their last 4 games Northern Ireland to take 6 points or less from their final 4 games Serbia to lose to Ireland and fail to beat Austria, combined with Wales not achieving 12 points from their final 4 games. Bosnia to take 7 points or less from their last three games combined with Greece to take 6 points or less from their last 3 games. I accept there is a very good chance that Slovakia/Slovenia will drop points and that at least one of the events above will occur but it is not guaranteed. The true odds on Scotland to get to the play-off should be about 20-1. If Scotland were to draw tonight and win the remaining three games then they could finish runners-up if Slovakia and Slovenia draw (or Slovenia win) and then both get beat by England. This is probably a 50/1 shot. However even then it is highly unlikely that Scotland would avoid the worst placed runner-up as they would require another runner-up to finish with less than 18 points, realistically they would require one of the following, Montenegro to take 7 points or less from their last 4 games (Kazakstan (A), Romania (H), Denmark (H), Poland (A) Northern Ireland to take 4 points or less from their final 4 games (San Marino (A), Czech Rep (H), Germany (A), Norway (A) If Scotland draw tonight and end up in this scenario, the odds to reach a play-off would drift to about 200-1. Must win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JECK Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Excellent piece above. What did strachan say exactly? A win for us and a draw in the slov game would be massive and things get interesting. I think we can beat Slovakia on a given night at hampden. However to follow that up in slovenia 3 days later is another altogether and that's what's sticking out for me, and the fact Slovakia play a safety net fixture in Malta on the same night looks really good for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Chris Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Slovakia likely to beat Slovenia as it's a home game. Scotland only draw and Slovakia win it's a 6 point lead. Slovakia have Malta at home last game aswell which is a banker. Their GD is miles better aswell. Of course it's a must win. At least try to finish 3rd if you can't make 2nd to improve the ranking for future draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rab The Crab Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Or instead of starting pathetic threads attempting to gather further criticism for our manager you could read the article and understand what he meant. Or just go for the bait from the Daily Retard and fall for their headline that's clearly intended to put him under even more pressure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, bdgsct said: I understand Strachan is attempting to take pressure off players but if he believes 10 points may be enough then he and his staff have completely failed to grasp the qualification format. I don't understand why people say things like "it's not a must win" - it's not going to reduce much pressure is it? in any case what matters is who the message is for and when what does matter is if you are needing to decide to hold on to a lead (or to a draw) in the last 15 minutes or go for broke... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bossman4 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Add to that the Naismith colum on BBC saying that the players know we need 6 points from these 2 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgsct Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If Strachan privately tells his players it is must-win fair enough, but what is the point in telling the fans/media anything different? If Strachan is taken at his word and genuinely believes 10 points may be enough and doesn't go for broke if drawing late in the game because he misunderstands the likelihood of progression then this is negligent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgsct said: If Strachan privately tells his players it is must-win fair enough, but what is the point in telling the fans/media anything different? If Strachan is taken at his word and genuinely believes 10 points may be enough and doesn't go for broke if drawing late in the game because he misunderstands the likelihood of progression then this is negligent. Craig Brown was infamous for coming out with this phrase all the time during his time as boss, but his attitude was get them at Hampden and the away tie does not matter all that much (which he could at least back up with a result). He will most certainly not be telling the players in private that its a not win game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgsct Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 “You don’t just have to win the game,” he said. “If you get a point and you win the next three games then that is 10 points. “You couldn’t tell me 10 [more] points couldn’t do it,” he added. “That is why it isn’t a must-win. We are going to try and play like it is a must-win, but play it in a way where we don’t try and win it by being silly and you lose it. Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/sport/football/teams/scotland/lithuania-game-is-not-must-win-claims-gordon-strahcan-1-4548105 Technically Strachan is correct 10 points may be enough - however if he understood the combination of other results required then he would not suggest this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Chris Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 10 points wouldn't be enough if Slovakia get just 6 points (e.g. win just their home games so could even afford a defeat at Hampden). Make no mistake Slovaks are clear favourites for 2nd. It's an outside shot at the very best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Even if he did/didn't say that, he and the staff will know - well, maybe not, it is the SFA - that anything less than 3 pts and our already slim chance making the playoffs will be pretty much over. Of course things could go our way if we lost or drew tonight e.g some freak Slovenia/Slovak results but as bdgsct stated we would probably end up worst runner up - if we stumble to second place via the others helping us out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcs Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If we don't win tonight then we don't deserve to be in a playoff most people don't even know why we're here I was talking to a local last night he said they play b/ball n ice hockey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonny78 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Its soon to be over giyz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JECK Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, jcs said: If we don't win tonight then we don't deserve to be in a playoff most people don't even know why we're here I was talking to a local last night he said they play b/ball n ice hockey That "stadium" is an abomination. The fact they play international football there I'd be devastated if we don't win the night. If we can't beat these then we just don't deserve it. Edited September 1, 2017 by JECK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Rab The Crab said: put him under even more pressure. Oh, he does that himself by being a stubborn git. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 56 minutes ago, jcs said: If we don't win tonight then we don't deserve to be in a playoff most people don't even know why we're here I was talking to a local last night he said they play b/ball n ice hockey Lithuania is one of the few countries in Europe where football lags behind as the nations favorite sport, with basketball the number 1 sport. Football is greatly underfunded in Lithuania, and the Sunshine Appeal Donation this afternoon (of money and football kits donated from various clubs.... Largs Thistle, Ardrossan Winton Rovers, Morton, North Kelvin Sport etc....) is going to a sports club in Vilnius that gives kids who can not afford/get a chance to play football the opportunity to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbo cop Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Of course we need to win and the players know it, so dont know why Strachan comes out with such quotes. Lets remember this lot held us to a draw at Hampden so it will not be easy, but 3 points is a must and the Malta game should take of itself. If we do this then we can look at the table and know exactly what we need to do in the final two games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyD Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 hours ago, bdgsct said: If Scotland were to draw tonight and win the remaining three games then they could finish runners-up if Slovakia and Slovenia draw (or Slovenia win) and then both get beat by England. This is probably a 50/1 shot. However even then it is highly unlikely that Scotland would avoid the worst placed runner-up as they would require another runner-up to finish with less than 18 points, realistically they would require one of the following, Montenegro to take 7 points or less from their last 4 games (Kazakstan (A), Romania (H), Denmark (H), Poland (A) Northern Ireland to take 4 points or less from their final 4 games (San Marino (A), Czech Rep (H), Germany (A), Norway (A) Must win? The ones in bold don't count as they're the bottom sides in their sections. Like our points from Malta won't count. If we draw tonight then win the remaining 3 we'd add 10 points to our 8. 18 points total, minus 6 for the Malta games leaves us on 12. Montenegro have 3 remaining games that matter: Romania who they drew with in the first game. Romania actually have a pretty mean defense and while they don't score a lot they're not easy to beat. Then 2 games, against the undefeated Poles who have 5 wins from 6, and against Denmark who they're only ahead of on goal difference. Bearing in mind that Montenegro are quite inconsistent, having already lost to Armenia in the group, which are the only points Armenia have outside of games against the bottom side, then to suddenly rack up two wins against difficult sides would be a bit of a surprise. It's not impossible that they'd get the 2 wins which they would need to get to 13 and be ahead of us, but it's unlikely. In their group they're level with Denmark right now, but Denmark have played the bottom side twice, so are really on 4 points, not 10. Assuming they lose to Poland, they'd need 3 wins to get ahead of us which is pretty unlikely as well given results so far. They play Armenia, Montenergo, Romania. Denmark have et to win 2 games in a row and they're going to have to win 3 in a row to be above us. Again it's inconsistency that's their enemy. Of course any side can suddenly find consistency, go on a little run and get some results.. but there's currently no reason to think that either of these two nations will do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyD Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 hours ago, robbo cop said: Lets remember this lot held us to a draw at Hampden so it will not be easy, True, it wont be easy, but also, only 1 of the side that started against them at Hampden is likely to start tonight, and that's Andy Robertson. Paterson, Marshall and Burke aren't in the squad. Darren Fletcher looks injured and hasn't been picked lately. Chris Martin is almost ccertainly not starting with Griffiths being there. Hanley and Russel Martin aren't the centerback pairing any more. Snodgrass has been off form for 6 months, and now isn't playing. Ritchie and Bannan have an outside chance, but i don't think either are likely to start. We're literally a different side, with new found confidence and some genuinely dangerous players that we didn't really have a year ago. Griffiths has finally shown he can do it at a level above the SPFL. Fraser has broken into the English Premiership. Armstrong's broken thru. Phillips has become a dangerous players in the EPL. Forrest is almost like a new player. Bannan's been a live wire this season. Brown is back in the side. Ritchie now looks like he might actually be a footballer. It's also worth noting that Novikovas, who is pretty much Lithuania's standout player,tore a muscle in a club match 3 weeks ago and hasn't played since. He's hoping to play against us and looks like he will, but it remains to be seen if he lasts the 90 or is anything like the threat he could be. They've also lost their first choice left back to injury and it's not a position they have a lot of depth in, so I'm quite optimistic that the right wing will be a good outlet for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Absolutely ridiculous from Strachan to not state the complete obvious. Not a hope our manager O'Neill would say that in some misguided sense of taking the pressure off the players. It sends out all the wrong signals. 6 points minimum from these two games or it's curtains for Scotland. Can't see Scotland winning in Slovenia unless they're already out of the running. Anyway best of luck lads tonight. I think Scorland will win it by a goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbo cop Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Quote We have improved for sure, although after watching that game we could not have got worse. At the moment I would take any sort of win, if they do it in style even better. Hopefully take advantage on the right side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
they've_been_suckered Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A Slovakia win tonight means we need 4W or 3W,1D + 15goals. Based on the worst second place from @bdgsct above, I'd expect Kazakhstan or NI to open the door for us. After all that number crunching, We'll feck it up tonight anyway probably Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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