Scotland vs Malta

[Morrisandmoo]

41 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

They will if we miss out on 2nd on goal difference.

(Admittedly other games have been more harmful there).

No they won't. If we miss out on 2nd on goal difference then whoever is second will not get a playoff spot. So it's irrelevant.

We controlled the game and won comfortably after an excellent performance in lithunia (a game that historically would have been a nervy affair). Let's take all the positives forward and try to win the next two. If we do, we'll very likely have a playoff spot.

[Toepoke]

25 minutes ago, Morrisandmoo said:

No they won't. If we miss out on 2nd on goal difference then whoever is second will not get a playoff spot. So it's irrelevant.

They probably would miss out but there's still a couple of groups where the runners up could end up on 17 points.

 

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, Morrisandmoo said:

No they won't. If we miss out on 2nd on goal difference then whoever is second will not get a playoff spot. So it's irrelevant.

We controlled the game and won comfortably after an excellent performance in lithunia (a game that historically would have been a nervy affair). Let's take all the positives forward and try to win the next two. If we do, we'll very likely have a playoff spot.

I am fairly confident that 18 points would not be the worst runner up.

[Morrisandmoo]

8 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I am fairly confident that 18 points would not be the worst runner up.

We'll find out soon enough. 

[Orraloon]

9 hours ago, Morrisandmoo said:

We'll find out soon enough. 

But it will be too late to do anything about it by then, it's already too late. The time to do something about it was during the last two games when we should have tried to get a few more goals. At that time we should have known that it could come down to goal difference. If it does go to goal difference now, we will almost definitely go out. Unless we beat Slovakia by 3 or 4 goals, which isn't going to happen.

 

[Caledonian Craig]

4 hours ago, Orraloon said:

But it will be too late to do anything about it by then, it's already too late. The time to do something about it was during the last two games when we should have tried to get a few more goals. At that time we should have known that it could come down to goal difference. If it does go to goal difference now, we will almost definitely go out. Unless we beat Slovakia by 3 or 4 goals, which isn't going to happen.

 

You are not still trumpeting this BS are you? If we finish level with Slovakia on points then we won't be on enough points to be one of the best runners-up. The scenario is clear - we must win the next two games to secure a play-off spot. If we were to beat Slovakia and draw with Slovenia we'd be out regardless of goal difference and Slovakia would finish second in group but be the worst runners-up and go out. Comprehende?

[Orraloon]

5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

You are not still trumpeting this BS are you? If we finish level with Slovakia on points then we won't be on enough points to be one of the best runners-up. The scenario is clear - we must win the next two games to secure a play-off spot. If we were to beat Slovakia and draw with Slovenia we'd be out regardless of goal difference and Slovakia would finish second in group but be the worst runners-up and go out. Comprehende?

If you think that there is absolutely no chance of us going out on GD then it's you who doesn't fully understand the situation.

 

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If you think that there is absolutely no chance of us going out on GD then it's you who doesn't fully understand the situation.

 

FACT:- The only way we will finish second in this group is by winning our last two games. Do we agree on that?

VIRTUAL CERTAINTY: We pick up four points in our last two games and regardless of goal difference (making us finish third in the group) we'd still not have won enough points to end up as one of the top eight runners-up. Do we agree on that?

[Orraloon]

14 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

FACT:- The only way we will finish second in this group is by winning our last two games. Do we agree on that?

VIRTUAL CERTAINTY: We pick up four points in our last two games and regardless of goal difference (making us finish third in the group) we'd still not have won enough points to end up as one of the top eight runners-up. Do we agree on that?

I don't think you understand how probability works. Everything seems to be either a "FACT" or "BS" to you. When in the real world there are lots of things in between.

Let's look at your so called "FACT" for a start. I would put that at about 95% right, but by no means a certainty. We could beat Slovakia by 4 goals which is an 8 goal swing in our favour. We would then go into the last game 2 points ahead of Slovakia and 4 goals ahead of them. We would also have scored 4 goals more. If we were to only manage a draw in Slovenia, then Slovakia would need to beat Malta by 5 goals to overtake us. We all think that Slovakia will probably beat Malta, but will they win by 5 goals? Now, I know that is an unlikely scenario which is why I've only estimated it as a 5% chance. 

Had we scored a few more goals in the previous two games the above scenario would be much more likely. Let's say we had managed to score another 4 goals over the 2 games. Then we would only need a 2 goal victory over Slovakia to be in the same situation as above.

As for your "VIRTUAL CERTAINTY". If you look closely at final two games in each of the other groups, you will see that there are a number of scenarios where it's quite possible for a 2nd place team to finish on 18 points or less. I might even go as far as estimating that it is even "likely" that this will happen in at least one of the groups. I think that if Slovakia finish on 18 points they will probably go through. We probably won't because we haven't scored enough goals.

 

 

[Caledonian Craig]

6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think you understand how probability works. Everything seems to be either a "FACT" or "BS" to you. When in the real world there are lots of things in between.

Let's look at your so called "FACT" for a start. I would put that at about 95% right, but by no means a certainty. We could beat Slovakia by 4 goals which is an 8 goal swing in our favour. We would then go into the last game 2 points ahead of Slovakia and 4 goals ahead of them. We would also have scored 4 goals more. If we were to only manage a draw in Slovenia, then Slovakia would need to beat Malta by 5 goals to overtake us. We all think that Slovakia will probably beat Malta, but will they win by 5 goals? Now, I know that is an unlikely scenario which is why I've only estimated it as a 5% chance. 

Had we scored a few more goals in the previous two games the above scenario would be much more likely. Let's say we had managed to score another 4 goals over the 2 games. Then we would only need a 2 goal victory over Slovakia to be in the same situation as above.

As for your "VIRTUAL CERTAINTY". If you look closely at final two games in each of the other groups, you will see that there are a number of scenarios where it's quite possible for a 2nd place team to finish on 18 points or less. I might even go as far as estimating that it is even "likely" that this will happen in at least one of the groups. I think that if Slovakia finish on 18 points they will probably go through. We probably won't because we haven't scored enough goals.

 

 

18 points won't get it done in my opinion to finish as one of best eight runners up. Okay there is a marginal chance it will but for me it has to be two wins for us - do that and there will be no doubt about it. If, by your crazy scenario, we miss out on goal difference it won't have been the last two or three games that have cost us but the first three games in the campaign.

 

 

 

[scotsgary2]

Need two wins end of... to make play offs 

[Texas Pete]

11 hours ago, Orraloon said:

But it will be too late to do anything about it by then, it's already too late. The time to do something about it was during the last two games when we should have tried to get a few more goals. At that time we should have known that it could come down to goal difference. If it does go to goal difference now, we will almost definitely go out. Unless we beat Slovakia by 3 or 4 goals, which isn't going to happen.

 

Our goal difference is so poor because England and Slovakia both pumped us 3-0.

0-3 away to Lithuania was a great result and way better than most of us predicted. 

2-0 against Malta was a decent result as well in the context of the group. England really struggled to break them down and they haven't really been pumped in this group except by us in Malta (and that was a fluke) and England a couple of weeks ago.

Nobody else has beaten them by more than 2 clear goals, home or away so to say we weren't trying and should have scored more against them is maybe a wee bit disrespectful to them.

We scored 5 goals without reply in our last 2 games and I think we would all have bitten your hand off for that before a ball was kicked.

If we do go out on goal difference then it will be the games we lost heavily that will be to blame for me. Slovakia only lost 2-1 at Wembley and beat us 3-0. That's where the difference was made.