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Grand National Thread


washboarder

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Yes you see four horses have died in the last four years when fences were modified making them supposedly easier to jump through. Before that four horses died through falling over eight years. Even the late Ginger McCain and other trainers poured scorn on the changes. In effect now since the fences are softer horse (they aren't daft) and jockeys take liberties with the fences and brush through them more and horses travel at greater speed which means horses fore legs plough more through the fence and prevents them landing on them and land more precariously on neck and are killed.

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Yes you see four horses have died in the last four years when fences were modified making them supposedly easier to jump through. Before that four horses died through falling over eight years. Even the late Ginger McCain and other trainers poured scorn on the changes. In effect now since the fences are softer horse (they aren't daft) and jockeys take liberties with the fences and brush through them more and horses travel at greater speed which means horses fore legs plough more through the fence and prevents them landing on them and land more precariously on neck and are killed.

None have died in the last 2 runnings

The modifications to fatalities rate cant really be judged until say after another 3 -5 years however id wager that it will be significant

Bechers Brook 1939 v 2009

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Edited by Ally Bongo
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Yes but height of fences (as photos show) is not the full story. The substance of the fences play a big part in falls. When the fences were far more solidly built if the horse never got enough height to clear the fence they got wedged in it (almost like a refusal). Nowadays the fences can be brushed through much easier but the fore legs which horses use to land with can get taken away from them and with the fences being easier to jump horses tend to travel quicker now as well so more speed and more fore legs being taken away from landing properly by brushing through the fence leads to more life-threatening falls. That is the pertinent point that many trainers have made about modifications and to quote that wikipedia link 'Some within the horseracing community, including some with notable achievements in the Grand National, such as Ginger McCain and Bob Champion,[6][7][8] have argued that the lowering of fences and the narrowing of ditches, primarily designed to increase horse safety, has had the adverse effect by encouraging the runners to race faster. During the 1970s and 1980s the Grand National saw a total of 12 horses die (half of which were at Becher's Brook); in the next 20-year period from 1990 to 2010, when modifications to the course were most significant, there were 17 equine fatalities.

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Anyway when is the final cut ? - so we can get the formulae horses !

I note that the hot favourite Shutthefrontdoor hasn't run since November - and only 7/1 - wont be doing that .

Final cut I do believe is Thursday morning. Don't bet on anything around No.50 in the list as they have no chance of making the cut. Only perhaps up to No.44 are in with making it in through others withdrawals.

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Aye it's 10am on Thursday it's the field is confirmed. As usual going in to the National there are about 6 or 7 that I fancy. Goonyella is my big fancy at well priced at 33s. Across the Bay was travelling like a dream last year until it got taken out of the race by a stray runner so it has EW appeal priced as high as 50s and looks to have been geared for this race. Another couple that catch the eye are First Lieutenant and Unioniste.

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after goonyella won a couple weeks ago its trainer was asked if he would run goonyella at Aintree he replied no he wont be going for the grand national hold fire on yer ante post if ya fancy this one

I put it on NRNB but it's not made the final field.

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Having won a decent amount of cash 3 times in the last 6 runnings - (Mon mone 2009 , Auroras Encore 2013 , Pineau de Re 2014 ) , I`ve come up with a highly scientific method of basing my selections on any horse that sounds a bit French :cheers3: ( even if they`re not ) .

Feel free to copy !

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Having won a decent amount of cash 3 times in the last 6 runnings - (Mon mone 2009 , Auroras Encore 2013 , Pineau de Re 2014 ) , I`ve come up with a highly scientific method of basing my selections on any horse that sounds a bit French :cheers3: ( even if they`re not ) .

Feel free to copy !

Unioniste it is then!!

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Aye it's 10am on Thursday it's the field is confirmed. As usual going in to the National there are about 6 or 7 that I fancy. Goonyella is my big fancy at well priced at 33s. Across the Bay was travelling like a dream last year until it got taken out of the race by a stray runner so it has EW appeal priced as high as 50s and looks to have been geared for this race. Another couple that catch the eye are First Lieutenant and Unioniste.

It done well to finish 14th after getting taken out!!! the same position it finished in 2013

Portrait King is a good under the radar outsider.Nice shout because I had missed it.

I fancy The Druids Nephew to win and I'll do a few others e/w like Oscar Time,Duke of Lucca and Dolatulo.

Best of luck to everyone except the Tims

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It done well to finish 14th after getting taken out!!! the same position it finished in 2013

Portrait King is a good under the radar outsider.Nice shout because I had missed it.

I fancy The Druids Nephew to win and I'll do a few others e/w like Oscar Time,Duke of Lucca and Dolatulo.

Best of luck to everyone except the Tims

:lol:

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bet portrait in January when it won, my son was at down royal on st pats day and said he watched this horse all the way round ,said it seemed like a schooling run however horse looked good, although he finished second he is rated 140, good trainer, and my lad knows the breeders and I know a few who backed it at long odds. good vibes for it I bet it ew

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Taps fingers waiting for Ally Bear

:blush:

I have to be honest - i've been focusing on a new motor the last 3 -4 weeks and get it tomorrow so i havent been concentrating on the National for that reason and also still a bit gutted about Annie Power at Cheltenham

Also my initial thoughts are that it is not a good National and with the added fast ground it could easily be a complete boil over.

A lot of the form lines are going to go right out the window due to the ground and it is going to give a lot more horses chances of staying the trip that normally wouldnt

The horses that i give chances to have probably been mentioned - Cause of Causes, The Druids Nephew, First Lieutenant, Rocky Creek etc but there is not much value

This year im looking at horses that love fast ground and also some that i think the trainer has been playing games with waiting for a coup

So my lively outsiders are ;

Al Co

Corrin Wood

Chance du Roy

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