Flure Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Just read through them all. There are some absolutely huge Labour majorities in that lot, still find it hard to think the SNP will take as many seats as being predicted. Think some of the names I'd love to see out of a job might survive (sadly). Tom Clarke losing a 21k majority must be unheard of, even if it's predicted as a narrow marginal seat. The thing about FPTP is, that if the swing to the SNP in Coatbridge is so huge that it reduces Clarke's majority to one - he still holds the seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Postal votes that nobody is supposed to know about rumours Play it again sam http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/postal-vote-rumours.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broath Boy Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Angus will definitely not be lost. Tory free Scotland. Cast iron. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robroysboy Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Postal votes that nobody is supposed to know about rumours Play it again sam http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/postal-vote-rumours.html will never forget Ruth Davidson's smug comments about the postal votes on the eve of the referendum. Still hurts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 will never forget Ruth Davidson's smug comments about the postal votes on the eve of the referendum. Still hurts Will never forget the pollster at 10.30pm on the 18th saying No had won ... Worse than Gazza's goal in 1996 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Postal votes that nobody is supposed to know about rumours Play it again sam http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/postal-vote-rumours.html ''In contention in more than half the seats''...is still a disaster for Labour. If they can't stroll the postal votes that means they've got absolutely no chance at all on the day. They're probably saying that in some of the seats the postal votes are showing 40% Labour votes. Come Thursday the SNP will win these seats easily. If Labour were actually doing really well, they wouldn't hide it in such conservative (small c) language. They're ####ed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted May 2, 2015 Author Share Posted May 2, 2015 YouGov's nowcast has: Angus - SNP Dundee East - SNP Moray - SNP Banff & Buchan - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) Eilean Siar - Likely SNP (possible Lab gain) Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 ''In contention in more than half the seats''...is still a flipping disaster for Labour. If they can't stroll the postal votes that means they've got absolutely no chance at all on the day. They're probably saying that in some of the seats the postal votes are showing 40% Labour votes. Come Thursday the SNP will win these seats easily. If Labour were actually doing really well, they wouldn't hide it in such conservative (small c) language. They're ####ed. Hope so Couldnt take another Sept 19th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 YouGov's nowcast has: Angus - SNP Dundee East - SNP Moray - SNP Banff & Buchan - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) Eilean Siar - Likely SNP (possible Lab gain) Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) The Western Isles will have an absolutely honking major SNP majority. The biggest in Scotland. "The Western Isles is more Scottish than Scotland" infamous words from a pal of mine when he visited Jockland in 2011. Pete Wishart will be back in Westminsiter too, and quite right being the best MP on Twitter too. Not a scoob about Banff and Buchan, but Eilidh has even the Labour candidate in 2010 voting for her, so I think we'll be home and hosed. There may well be an increase in Tory voters in these areas, but it'll be minor stuff - 1% etc. I'm not naive though, I think the likes of Tom Clarke's 67% of the vote majority in Coatbridge is going to be very hard to overturn even if Phil is a popular local candidate. There's a bit of value in Clarke being returned at 5/4. Same with Murphy in Renfrewshire East. I think we'll end up about with between 40-45 MPs. We lost any of the 6 we already have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Souness' 'tache Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) I'm looking at sticking money on SNP less than 49.5 seats @ 5/6 (someone mentioned this a few days ago on PaddyPower) Tom Clarke to hold his seat @ 5/4 and looking at Tom Greatrex to hold Rutherglen and Hamilton West (my current constituency). Edited May 2, 2015 by Souness' 'tache Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenAngus Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Postal votes that nobody is supposed to know about rumours Play it again sam http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/postal-vote-rumours.html Surely if nobody is meant to know about them then an investigation has to be launched by the Electoral Commission? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave78 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Ian Dale's final Scottish predictions Tory blogger-in-chief 'predicts' an outcome that's also a central plank of the Tory election campaign. Wish it were true, but not gonna happen IMO. I'm going for 37 SNP seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 The Western Isles will have an absolutely honking major SNP majority. The biggest in Scotland. "The Western Isles is more Scottish than Scotland" infamous words from a pal of mine when he visited Jockland in 2011. Aye, but it voted NO.... .. so no really all that Scottish... ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I'm not naive though, I think the likes of Tom Clarke's 67% of the vote majority in Coatbridge is going to be very hard to overturn even if Phil is a popular local candidate. There's a bit of value in Clarke being returned at 5/4. Same with Murphy in Renfrewshire East. My mate at work is from Motherwell & said that the Catholic Church are telling the members to vote for a party that does not advocate any more austerity Whilst they are not coming right out and saying vote SNP they are more or less hinting it If the same is happening around the Catholic community of Coatbridge that has carried Clarke all these years then he could be on a shaky nail As someone in that Guardian video stated - if Coatbridge goes SNP then they could win every seat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Aye, but it voted NO.... .. so no really all that Scottish... ...... Of course, we both ken that Dundee is the most Scottish placey in the world, ken. This was a friend who said that about Na h-eileanan was Icelandic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 My mate at work is from Motherwell & said that the Catholic Church are telling the members to vote for a party that does not advocate any more austerity Whilst they are not coming right out and saying vote SNP they are more or less hinting it If the same is happening around the Catholic community of Coatbridge that has carried Clarke all these years then he could be on a shaky nail As someone in that Guardian video stated - if Coatbridge goes SNP then they could win every seat Pretty interesting, I didn't know that. I'm a Catholic and we had very similar soundbites pre Indyref ''Vote with your heart and who you think will better our nation'' or thereabouts. We'll soon see. Roll on Thursday now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Not sure if you are right there, fraserburgh the second largest town voted 70%?yes No current SNP areas have been polled. I fear places like Moray, Banff & Buchan and Angus could be lost - very large no voting areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 (edited) This has me even more paronoid, i am going to be shitting myself come friday although i found this "All the indications are that Banff and Buchan delivered a majority for Yes, against the trend in other parts of Aberdeenshire, and I am immensely proud of the people who chose hope over fear. Elidgh Whiteford" <p> YouGov's nowcast has: Angus - SNP Dundee East - SNP Moray - SNP Banff & Buchan - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) Eilean Siar - Likely SNP (possible Lab gain) Perth & North Perthshire - Likely SNP (possible Con gain) Edited May 3, 2015 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HUNTINGMcGREGOR Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 as soon as the deficit is gone - the deficit is really the engine of fear. Once its gone its all over bar the shouting. As soon as the deficit is gone. Are you kidding ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 (edited) With regards to banff and buchan i emailed the local snp branch and they said "Canvassing finished. Results looking good for us but never take anything for granted.We have labour vote going to SNP even had Tory votes going to the SNP" thats put my mind at rest for just now Edited May 3, 2015 by hampden_loon2878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 My mate at work is from Motherwell & said that the Catholic Church are telling the members to vote for a party that does not advocate any more austerity Whilst they are not coming right out and saying vote SNP they are more or less hinting it If the same is happening around the Catholic community of Coatbridge that has carried Clarke all these years then he could be on a shaky nail As someone in that Guardian video stated - if Coatbridge goes SNP then they could win every seat It's 2015 - pretty depressing if anyone still votes according to how they are directed by their church (any church), but I suppose that influence is still there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 It could happen on the day though... Hopefully we can gain East Renfrewshire. East ren is a messed up place with complete extremes of wealth and poverty. I really would love to see that prock Murphy lose his seat, I hate him. Hard to gauge here in Barrhead how its going to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishcumnock Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Accosted by heid yin oot local ludge yesterday , easy points made and rebuffed ,not informed well. what i didn't know was that there were no foodbanks till the snp took over , and labour did away with the bedroom tax . This is a man who preaches to the young and thick of my community . He is only one of hundreds who are doing this, misinformation off the stupid scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hope so Couldnt take another Sept 19th What would make another 19th out of interest? -40 seats? -30? Murphy returned? My sole interest in this election is Clark returned, SNP can take 58 for all I care. If clark loses I'll be disappointed, I'll be disgusted by the sheer stupidity of my fellow constituents, but it won't come close to the heartache of Indyref. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 It's 2015 - pretty depressing if anyone still votes according to how they are directed by their church (any church), but I suppose that influence is still there. Totally As much as you want to unfortunately you cant make some people think for themselves There will always be those that want to be sheep What would make another 19th out of interest? -40 seats? -30? Murphy returned? Yes probably Want to see Labour wiped out more or less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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