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Wouldn't mind seeing an SNP-Green coalition.

Predictions :

SNP to win again.

Greens to gain on their 2 MSPs, but nowhere near the 9 or so the last few polls have been predicting - maybe end up with 3 more their current tally. Their fairweather indy/dinnae mind Harvie support to opt for the SNP at the ballot box.

Lib Dems to keep their 5, gain one or two even.

RISE to have slept through the alarm - and will fail to register outwith Glasgow where there they'll get 2-3% of the vote.

As much as I dislike Labour, the thought of Ruth Davidson being championed throughout the media as the official 'opposition', "DIDNT WE DO WELL"  is enough of an incentive to hope that Labour still lose lots of MSPs, but evenutally are runners up (in an ideal world, that would be the Greens or whoever, but it's not going to happen).

Saying that hopefully the Tories pick up any 55% Brit Nat UKIP votes and stop Coburn and his party from gaining a seat/s.

 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think he is in Lothians. I think we might have been through this before?

Sounds like he wants to vote Green but doesn't want to "waste his vote"? It's a problem for all small parties but some folk need to "waste there votes" for a while before they eventually start to count. The SNP were in the same position not that long ago. 

As you've said, Im not Lothians - Falkirk West constituency, Central Scotland region.

It's nowt to do with tactical voting and Im not overly concerned whether Im wasting my vote. SNP aren't doing enough to merit both my votes so they wont be getting them. List vote is going to Green's as they are clear second preferences for me by some margin. If this is considered a wasted vote, so be it but to me it sends the right message - if SNP want both my votes, they need to do more to earn it. If this lets allows a Labour or Tory MSP to win election, so be it.

My general point about the Greens is that the Scottish Greens and the green movement more generally have a credibility issue - they're generally perceived as a fringe, radical movement and I think they'd get on a lot better if they re-defined themselves away from the Green movement. After all, you don't need to have Green in your name to champion "green" policies, and it would make them more accessible to a wider proportion of the public.

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29 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Saying that hopefully the Tories pick up any 55% Brit Nat UKIP votes and stop Coburn and his party from gaining a seat/s.

Have a nasty feeling that those xenophobic UKIP feckers will manage to get a list MSP from the North East.

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36 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

As you've said, Im not Lothians - Falkirk West constituency, Central Scotland region.

It's nowt to do with tactical voting and Im not overly concerned whether Im wasting my vote. SNP aren't doing enough to merit both my votes so they wont be getting them. List vote is going to Green's as they are clear second preferences for me by some margin. If this is considered a wasted vote, so be it but to me it sends the right message - if SNP want both my votes, they need to do more to earn it. If this lets allows a Labour or Tory MSP to win election, so be it.

So if I read you correctly you're saying that you won't give both votes to your first preference - SNP - as they aren't meeting your expectations.  However, you are going to give your list vote to the Greens, who are your second preference and so by definition must be meeting your expectations even less than the SNP are.

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12 minutes ago, flumax said:

I certainly hope not but you never know. They might just scrape enough votes for one. A lot can change in five years. 

Some anti-EU Tory voters may lend their regional vote to UKIP.

It would be embarrassing for Scotland if we elected one of those "send the buggers back" UKIP idiots.

Can't believe how popular those kunts are in Wales right now.

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2 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Have a nasty feeling that those xenophobic UKIP feckers will manage to get a list MSP from the North East.

Doubt it.

I know we like to wind up the sheep about being unionists but the NorthEast isn't just Aberdeen. It also includes YES City amongst other places. Last time round SNP won all 10 constituency seats AND STILL managed to get the first list seat. UKIP won't even come close to catching the Lib Dems IMO.

 

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I honestly dont understand the hard on over the green party,,, they are a bunch of nut jobs,, mr harvie comes across well but read between the line of their policies and they are a shambles,,,,i can actually see ukip vote rising drastically due to the eu referendum effect,,, hopefully not to an extent they grap a few seats,,,

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1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

I certainly hope not but you never know. They might just scrape enough votes for one. A lot can change in five years. 

Some anti-EU Tory voters may lend their regional vote to UKIP.

I over egged it 12795 would have got a list seat not 15k. 

So need 6x support. So I guess (assuming the ridiculous ascertion,  same turn out as last time and split)  then 10k ish torys go ukip, ukip could take one of the labour seats. 

 

Just looking at last time. Snp only just shaved a list seat. Need (minimum x 11) + 1 to get a list. Of course we don't know the minimum but it could be 16k (based on Lothian with the highest minimum), could need 170k list. That's me made my mind up. SNP x2

 

 

I appreciate that's a lot if conjecture, simplification, approximation and bollix

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11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I honestly dont understand the hard on over the green party,,, they are a bunch of nut jobs,, mr harvie comes across well but read between the line of their policies and they are a shambles,,,,i can actually see ukip vote rising drastically due to the eu referendum effect,,, hopefully not to an extent they grap a few seats,,,

Oh I can. Redistribution through taxation, sustainable energy and transport. What's not to like. 

They would pull SNP a tad further left just through their presence and challenging. 

 

They don't need well thought through policies because they're not going to get anywhere near govt. Just need to crow on a good game to change the political scene and sentiment..... See your ukip changed the UK scene, forcing eu ref from torys and labour promising tougher borders. 

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i wouldn't be giving Greens second vote, unless you genuinely wanted them to have seat at exclusion of SNP, could end up giving seats to other parties, rather than greens

http://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/

Brigadoonshire has nine constituency seats, and in our hypothetical example the SNP take them all in a clean sweep. The list votes for the region, meanwhile, break down – and this is AN ILLUSTRATION NOT A PREDICTION – like this:

SNP: 100,000
Labour: 70,000
Conservatives: 60,000
Liberal Democrats: 25,000
Green: 15,000

What the D’Hondt method does is put those numbers through seven rounds of voting: one round for each list seat to be allocated. In each round, every party has its list vote divided by the number of seats it already has in the region – both constituency and list – plus 1. We call that number (total seats +1) the divisor.

(You have to add the 1 because otherwise when a party didn’t win any constituency seats you’d be starting off dividing by zero, which is mathematically impossible.)

So in Round 1, the SNP’s list vote is divided by 10 (because it has nine constituency seats and nine plus one is 10), and everyone else’s is divided by one, ie it stays the same. So for the first list seat, the adjusted vote becomes:

Labour: 70,000
Conservatives: 60,000
Liberal Democrats: 25,000
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000 (100,000 divided by 10)

That means Labour win Round 1 and get the first of the seven list seats. But because it now has a seat in the region, the party’s divisor goes up from one to two. So when we get to Round 2, the Labour vote is cut in half.

(In each round the process is that we take the party at the top of the table out, give them a seat, apply the new divisor to their original vote, and then slot the party back into the table at its new position. It might make it easier to understand if we mark the only party that’s changed position with an arrow.)

The Round 2 table is therefore:

Conservatives: 60,000
> Labour: 35,000 (70,000 divided by two)
Liberal Democrats: 25,000
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000

So now the Conservatives have a seat, and their divisor also goes up by one while everyone else’s numbers stay the same. Which means Round 3 comes out like this:

Labour: 35,000
> Conservatives: 30,000 (60,000 divided by two)
Liberal Democrats: 25,000
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000

Labour get another seat and their divisor goes up by one again, to three. (Divisors are always applied to the INITIAL number of votes – in Labour’s case 70,000 – NOT to the number carried over from preceding rounds.) So Round 4 runs:

Conservatives: 30,000
Liberal Democrats: 25,000
> Labour: 23,333 (70,000 divided by three)
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000

Another seat for the Tories, so their divisor goes up again, everyone else stays the same, and Round 5 plays out like this:

Liberal Democrats: 25,000
Labour: 23,333
> Conservatives: 20,000 (60,000 divided by three)
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000

 Now the Lib Dems have a seat, and their divisor goes up. Round 6:

Labour: 23,333
Conservatives: 20,000
> Liberal Democrats: 12,500 (25,000 divided by two)
Green: 15,000
SNP: 10,000

Another seat for Labour, whose divisor now becomes four. So finally, the votes inRound 7 for the last of the list seats are:

Conservatives: 20,000
> Labour: 17,500 (70,000 divided by four)
Green: 15,000
Liberal Democrats: 12,500
SNP: 10,000

And the Tories get their third seat.

So at the end of seven rounds, Brigadoonshire is now represented by these MSPs:

SNP: 9 (all constituency)
Labour: 3 (all list)
Conservative: 3 (all list)
Liberal Democrat: 1 (list)

And that’s how AMS works.

 

 

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It's tricky to predict how the list will go as it's the first time the SNP have fought a Holyrood election from a position of dominance in the constituency vote.

Previously many would have voted Labour constituency / SNP list, possibly even Lib Dem or Tory as their 1st vote and SNP on the list.

Who's to say there won't be a number of Labour / Green voters this time for example?...

Edited by Toepoke
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I honestly don't know who I'm going to vote for in either vote this year. Not one party impresses me enough to properly WIN my vote. The SNP just have not impressed me this term but I would normally just vote for them in the constituency vote then vote someone else in the list. However, Alex Neil my local MSP and I just can't bring myself to vote for him.

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16 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

It's tricky to predict how the list will go as it's the first time the SNP have fought a Holyrood election from a position of dominance in the constituency vote.

Previously many would have voted Labour constituency / SNP list, possibly even Lib Dem or Tory as their 1st vote and SNP on the list.

Who's to say there won't be a number of Labour / Green voters this time for example?...

I doubt there will be many labour/green  votes as that would in most cases be a wasted labour vote as they aren't expected to do well in most constituencies. It's the list they will get most, possibly all, their seats from.

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10 minutes ago, iainmac1 said:

I doubt there will be many labour/green  votes as that would in most cases be a wasted labour vote as they aren't expected to do well in most constituencies. It's the list they will get most, possibly all, their seats from.

Depends how list savvy the remaining Labour voters are I suppose.

I suspect this time a lot of SNP voters will switch to Green for the list safe in the knowledge that the constituency seat will be in the bag. No need for a stunt like "Alex Salmond for First Minister" on the ballot paper this time...

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16 hours ago, aaid said:

So if I read you correctly you're saying that you won't give both votes to your first preference - SNP - as they aren't meeting your expectations.  However, you are going to give your list vote to the Greens, who are your second preference and so by definition must be meeting your expectations even less than the SNP are.

The problem with that interpretation is that it views Scottish Elections and AMS in particular as some binary choice - that the voter should give both their votes to the same party. It kinda defeats the point of the entire process IMO.

Bottom line: SNP haven't done enough to get both my votes. That means one of my votes will be going to another party, and there's really only one alternative to the SNP for me: the Scottish Green Party. It's really just a question of which vote, which will obviously be my list vote.

Everything else is blind loyalty to the SNP, obfuscation or both. 

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22 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

The problem with that interpretation is that it views Scottish Elections and AMS in particular as some binary choice - that the voter should give both their votes to the same party. It kinda defeats the point of the entire process IMO.

I'm sorry but you've got that completely wrong.  AMS is not a second preference system like STV, it is a system designed to give as near as possible a proportional share of the seats based on the list vote.  So if a party gets 50% of the list vote they should broadly  get 50% of the seats.

Of course the modified system and the fact that there are 73 FPTP seats and 56 list seats skews that as it means that if a party has national support across the board of 50.1% they will at the minimum win all the constituency seats.  That's a flaw in the current system - arguably constructed to avoid the current state of the parties occurring - although nowhere near as bad as Westminster.

None of that changes the fact though that AMS is fundamentally not a "second choice" system.  

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1 hour ago, iainmac1 said:

In that scenario all the green votes going to the SNP would have still got them 0 list seats. 

But if half of the SNP list vote had gone to the Greens then they would have gained 3 list seats at the expense of unionist parties. 

you are gambling on the 9 constituencies being SNP - 

1st past the post might not be SNP, so then they need the second vote, if its the SNP you want

Point is it's moving sand, so shouldnt be gambling with second vote, thinking seats are in the bag   

 

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1 hour ago, iainmac1 said:

That was partly to get the SNP at the top of the ballot paper. Wouldn't work this time around.

It certainly worked well in helping to secure an SNP victory in 2007 and I suppose they could use something like "A second term for Nicola Sturgeon" if they wanted. My point was more that this time the SNP won't actually need to bother.

 

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What Auld Reekie said.
 
I am personally quite excited about Andy Wightman being in Parliament. That's about the size of it for me with this election. I can see the SNP sweeping the constituencies but failing with the list seats to end up with roughly the same total as last time. Maybe the Tories gaining a few at the expense of Labour. And the Greens getting one or two more than at current. Effectively a no-change election. If that is the case, I hope the SNP are a bit more radical in 2016-20 as referendum apart (and to be fair, that was a biggie) the impression on the streets is that nothing much was achieved in this last session.
 
And like last time when I really didn't want George Galloway strutting the corridors of Holyrood, I fervently hope UKIP fail to gain any seats.

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