Holyrood predictions

[Orraloon]

7 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

At this stage in 2011 the polls were suggesting Iain Gray for First Minister...

It's amazing how a trip to Subway can change your life.

[stocky]

18 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

At this stage in 2011 the polls were suggesting Iain Gray for First Minister...

How long before election was his Subway Moment.

44% 2011, , 47% just now.  According to Orraloon  .List Vote .  

FFS Imagine that had happened......

Iain Gray 

 

Well I always thought Indy Came 1 parliament too early, 2017 was the preferred date for Indy 1, 

 

[Toepoke]

Given how things have gone recently in Scotland it's easy to forget how much of a shock the 2011 result was.

I mind thinking I'll sit up til the first result came in, it was Rutherglen - Labour hold. No surprise there, then they showed the swingometer, over 20% to the SNP. Bloody hell I thought, better stay up a bit longer!

[Orraloon]

43 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Given how things have gone recently in Scotland it's easy to forget how much of a shock the 2011 result was.

 

It wouldn't be so much of a shock this time round but still a massive achievement to win a majority in a voting system specifically designed to ensure it doesn't happen. 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

hey  I could spend a guid few hours analysing t myself

wish I was as 'Sad' as you and could get access to that info ..

 

It will be interesting,  didnt realise that SNP are polling Higher now than they were in '11.

Aye i think it will be Labour or ex Labour guys who are teasing with their second vote. 

Would be great for Greens to be above Libs ... 

70. -snp

25- lab

15-tory

10-Green ( unlikely as they have no constituency and at a push will only get one second list seat ) so 8 really!

6 - Libs

3 - others

 

I didn't make that clear.  They are currently polling at 47%, 44% is the actual %age of the list vote from May 2011.   They are also polling higher than they did at this point in 2011.

I don't see the Greens getting anywhere close to 10, if they get a constituency, they will probably blow their chances of picking up a list seat in that region.  I'm not sure about 3 others either.  Possibly one, maybe two at the outside for RISE, I don't see UKIP getting anywhere close, they have an advantage given the amount of publicity they are getting and also with EU referendum running alongside but given that both Labour and the Tories are making such a push for the lists, I don't see any UKIP getting any "protest" votes, I also think that Coburn personally is a vote loser, say one thing about Farage he does have something of "blokey" persona that appeals to some people and to some extent cuts across the classes, Coburn comes across as a Tim Nice but Dim toff without the naive charm - if they are looking for disaffected traditional Labour loyalists that won't play well, nor will his sexuality.  That Misty Thackery dude seemed to have some traction in that demographic but he's up on sex charges and not standing.

The SNP will not win all constituencies, even polling +50% nationally there will be constituencies where local factors come into play.  Those highlighted in the Herald article are interesting, especially Glasgow Kelvin and Edinburgh Central.  In Glasgow Kelvin, its not inconceivable that Patrick Harvie could unseat Sandra White, although that could equally split the Indy vote and let in this case presumably Labour in.  Edinburgh Central is even more intriguing with three big hitters there in Ruth Davidson, Alison Johnstone and Sarah Boyack all standing.  I think the only thing you can predict there is that the Lib Dems will be last and will lose their deposit.

In both those cases, though if the SNP don't win, they will almost certainly pick up a list seat.  Similarly Edinburgh Eastern, if Dugdale does manage to win, it will simply be Labour and the SNP swapping a FPTP seat for a list one.

In Pollok, I think Johann Lamont is toast and I think she knows she's toast and that's why she's #2 on the Glasgow list - Humza Yousaf to win by some distance. 

Edited April 7, 2016 by aaid

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

How long before election was his Subway Moment.

 

7th April 2011. This is the anniversary of that famous and very funny moment in political history. It should be renamed "Subway Day"

[weekevie04]

2 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Given how things have gone recently in Scotland it's easy to forget how much of a shock the 2011 result was.

I mind thinking I'll sit up til the first result came in, it was Rutherglen - Labour hold. No surprise there, then they showed the swingometer, over 20% to the SNP. Bloody hell I thought, better stay up a bit longer!

Yeah, agreed.

I received a bottle of Limoncella(sic) and with it's bright yellow colour, decided to play a game that I'll take a wee nip for every constituency seat won by the SNP. The rest was history and a disaster. 

Great viewing though, and the drama of the majority being confirmed at around 5pm the next day on the list vote.

[stocky]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14410293.Five_constituencies_to_keep_an_eye_on_in_the_Holyrood_election/

5 seats to watch

My Opinion, for what its worth.

Pollock is Won by SNP . Humza will walk it.

Edinburgh Central will go for the best option to beat SNP , next to  Iain Murray, so SNP to lose this one. The unionist Vote is really all tory anyhow, just different shades.

Kelvin Maybe Green or SNP , Sandra White is a pal of mine but I really like Patrick Harvey, Polling shows high SNP ,Labour have nae chance, so the ex labour vote might go Green 

Edinburgh Eastern could be Central in reverse with the Unionist vote splitting WFI have a lot of ground forces. 

Orkney/Shetland only a 817 majority to overcome, Last time and in the GE Orkney was SNP, Shetland swung it, will be close.

SNP to win there would be fantastic, 

 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14410293.Five_constituencies_to_keep_an_eye_on_in_the_Holyrood_election/

 

Orkney/Shetland only a 817 majority to overcome, Last time and in the GE Orkney was SNP, Shetland swung it, will be close.

SNP to win there would be fantastic, 

 

I think SNP might win Orkney but probably not Shetland. It would be good to win Shetland just to get rid of Tavish Scott though. I don't think he is on the regional list.

 

[JohnW]

5 hours ago, thorbotnic said:

Well... they would be, right? Imagine if they'd been an independent country in 1970...

Indeed, a bunch of crofters and fishermen negotiating with big oil companies what could possibly go wrong...

[Guest flumax]

53 minutes ago, JohnW said:

Indeed, a bunch of crofters and fishermen negotiating with big oil companies what could possibly go wrong...

They managed to get an oil fund unlike the rest of Scotland /uk, so maybe they should be the ones telling us what to do 

[JohnW]

Yes, but it wasn't an independent Shetland that did that.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

I think SNP might win Orkney but probably not Shetland. It would be good to win Shetland just to get rid of Tavish Scott though. I don't think he is on the regional list.

 

I was working with few lads from orkney while offshore, one asked where i got my yes sticker on my hard hat as he would really like one which then lead to a discussion on the referendum,, he was saying that the majority of people he knew in orkney voted yes which surprised me, he said that the population of orkeny is almosy 50% english and that drastically swung the vote,,, did shetland not vote SNP at the westminster elections and it was orkney that swayed the vote in favour of the lib dems? 

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, JohnW said:

Indeed, a bunch of crofters and fishermen negotiating with big oil companies what could possibly go wrong...

[Guest flumax]

32 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was working with few lads from orkney while offshore, one asked where i got my yes sticker on my hard hat as he would really like one which then lead to a discussion on the referendum,, he was saying that the majority of people he knew in orkney voted yes which surprised me, he said that the population of orkeny is almosy 50% english and that drastically swung the vote,,, did shetland not vote SNP at the westminster elections and it was orkney that swayed the vote in favour of the lib dems? 

Without pointing fingers (seeing that more scots voted no than incomers). I've heard the same for Shetland

[stocky]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Nice Poloneck Mr Poke...     suits you ...

Edited April 7, 2016 by stocky

[JohnW]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was working with few lads from orkney while offshore, one asked where i got my yes sticker on my hard hat as he would really like one which then lead to a discussion on the referendum,, he was saying that the majority of people he knew in orkney voted yes which surprised me, he said that the population of orkeny is almosy 50% english and that drastically swung the vote,,, did shetland not vote SNP at the westminster elections and it was orkney that swayed the vote in favour of the lib dems? 

I was talking to our local SNP Convenor about this as he was at the count for the Westminster election and he reckons that Tavish and the liar were looking very worried as the count was going on (the count for Orkney and Shetland was held in Shetland) but when the Orkney results came in they relaxed a bit.  Apparently it's difficult to get a definitive number each for Orkney and Shetland but it appears that Shetland voted SNP by a whisker in the Westminster election.

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I was working with few lads from orkney while offshore, one asked where i got my yes sticker on my hard hat as he would really like one which then lead to a discussion on the referendum,, he was saying that the majority of people he knew in orkney voted yes which surprised me, he said that the population of orkeny is almosy 50% english and that drastically swung the vote,,, did shetland not vote SNP at the westminster elections and it was orkney that swayed the vote in favour of the lib dems? 

I hope you're right. If I could choose which Lib Dem to get rid of, it would be Tavish Scott. 

[Guest flumax]

http://archive.is/NzXs7 bookies 4/1 all constituency seats.  - nah with the borders and Northern Isles imo

[Parklife]

The bold Ruth Davidson is getting my vote: 

 

 

Classic Tory, says she's going one way, then goes the other. 

Edited April 14, 2016 by Parklife

[Scunnered]

39 minutes ago, Parklife said:

The bold Ruth Davidson is getting my vote: 

 

 

Classic Tory, says she's going one way, then goes the other. 

Belter though 

[Scunnered]

RMT have voted to back RISE... As well as Labours Neil Findlay.

Rise securing a major TU is pretty extraordinary.

Solidarity as expected are imploding like everything else Tommy touches. A number of their candidates have withdrawn and one is threatening legal action after she featured in their PB after being assured she wouldn't following her resignation.

[aaid]

Sheriff Dugdale's turn today.

 

 

[Parklife]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Sheriff Dugdale's turn today.

 

 

How utterly bizarre  

[Toepoke]

She nearly decapitated that wee girl!

 

3 hours ago, Scunnered said:

RMT have voted to back RISE... As well as Labours Neil Findlay.

Neil Findlay's backing RISE???

Edited April 15, 2016 by Toepoke