EU Referendum

[aaid]

55 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

"I don't care who he is, what he's did or what he stands for, as long as he agrees with me"

So the converse of that is "the guy's a scumbag and should be in The Hague but he's said something that I believe to be true, so I need to disavow what I believe"

Its a completely bogus argument.  

What you can legitimately argue is whether he's the right person to deliver that message. 

[Toepoke]

Some positivity from The Herald for a change...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15103162.Yes_poll_win_would_put_Scotland_in_EU_fast_lane/

 

[Rossy]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Some positivity from The Herald for a change...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15103162.Yes_poll_win_would_put_Scotland_in_EU_fast_lane/

 

Yeap.

A story which was instantly relegated to the small print in The Scotsman, who led this morning with the Yoon rally cry of 'Scotland will be like Greece'....

Ho hum.

[Toepoke]

One of the academics involved with the story was on Scotland Tonight last night. The feeling seemed to be that although Scotland could be fast tracked into the EU it would still have to leave the EU with the UK first, no chance to retain membership. Which is something that's been said from various sources. 

If so I don't see the need to hastily call a second independence referendum.

 

[Flure]

The EU is a very pragmatic organisation.

Consider the possibility of a newly created "holding pen" for countries in Scotland's position.

A holding pen in which Scotland can continue to operate with EU rules and markets, but will have no/minimum voting rights etc until ratification.

So, not out - but not entirely in - but with no complicated negotiation to convert to full membership.

This isn't an impossible scenario is it?

[Haggis_trap]

3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

One of the academics involved with the story was on Scotland Tonight last night. The feeling seemed to be that although Scotland could be fast tracked into the EU it would still have to leave the EU with the UK first, no chance to retain membership. Which is something that's been said from various sources. 

If so I don't see the need to hastily call a second independence referendum.

 

Yip - lets see what Brexit means and remove as much uncertainty as possible : for example NI-EIRE border will answer lots of questions.

Right now we are in the honeymoon period.  People in false sense of security that Brexit might be ok simply because the Tories delayed A50 for as long as they dare.  Once the economic uncertainty and downsides kick in then I suspect the polls may turn ?

[Dave78]

48 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Right now we are in the honeymoon period.  People in false sense of security that Brexit might be ok simply because the Tories delayed A50 for as long as they dare.  Once the economic uncertainty and downsides kick in then I suspect the polls may turn ?

I tend to think it's the other way round. Look at the independence poll ratings taken a day or two after the brexit vote (59% Yes, 32% No (Sunday Post), and 52% Yes, 48% No (from Panelbase)). Then the shock subsided, Brexit became 'normalised', and we're back to where we were in September 2014.

The window of maximum opportunity will be in 2018, IMO.

[Toepoke]

9 hours ago, Dave78 said:

I tend to think it's the other way round. Look at the independence poll ratings taken a day or two after the brexit vote (59% Yes, 32% No (Sunday Post), and 52% Yes, 48% No (from Panelbase)). Then the shock subsided, Brexit became 'normalised', and we're back to where we were in September 2014.

The window of maximum opportunity will be in 2018, IMO.

I'd be wary of reacting to outlier polls like those right after the Brexit vote.

The long term trend is likely to favour independence. And if the opposite was true and unionism is going to become more popular over time, then there's not much point voting for independence...

[Haggis_trap]

The polls immediately after brexit were simple knee jerk reaction (rather than longer term shift).

Right now a lot of people are probably of the opinion that Brexit might be "OK".
However it is a false sense of security simply because A50 was delayed - nothing has (as yet) changed.
The next 2 years will be interesting though - Theresa May has promised the earth and wont be able to deliver.

 

[fishcumnock]

Bit of a stooshie about hammond ? Saying yesterday it will still be open borders for immigration 

Thought thats what the kippers voted against.

[Dave78]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

I'd be wary of reacting to outlier polls like those right after the Brexit vote.

The long term trend is likely to favour independence. And if the opposite was true and unionism is going to become more popular over time, then there's not much point voting for independence...

All good points and a strong argument. 

Although i seem to recall stories in the press around a month ago that indicated May would agree to another indyref AFTER the brexit process had been completed (though i can't find anything after a quick google). Is it wise to follow the Tories preferred timeline?

[Dave78]

52 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Right now a lot of people are probably of the opinion that Brexit might be "OK".

 

Are we 100% certain that it won't be?

[Haggis_trap]

9 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Are we 100% certain that it won't be?

Right now we dont know because nothing has happened.

However I suspect the Tories are in for a shock once A50 triggered.  First stumbling block will be to compromise on UKs exit-bill. 

If we cant agree then future trade deals on hold - whilst the clock ticks down to WTO terms....

[Rossy]

5 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

Right now we dont know because nothing has happened.

However I suspect the Tories are in for a shock once A50 triggered.  First stumbling block will be to compromise on UKs exit-bill. 

If we cant agree then future trade deals on hold - whilst the clock ticks down to WTO terms....

The Tories, to a certain extent, are protected by a right-wing, anti-EU press who will simply refuse to publish any story that suggests that Brexit was the biggest act of economic and political stupidity in British history.

And even when things go tits up, the blame will be fairly and squarely placed on the shoulders of these damn foreigners.....'they're stopping us taking back control, innit'...

[TDYER63]

Economic data has been reasonably resilient up till now but the last week or so has started deteriorating . Poor retail sales last week, yesterdays GDP showing business investment is down as is household spending and even service sector data slower than has been. Hardly a peep of this news unless I missed it. If this had been purely scottish data the Mail etc  have it screaming over the first four pages. 

Will be interesting to see how it  continues. 

[Ally Bongo]

The BBC really want and love a hard Brexit

Look at the state of this on BBCQT later

 

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The BBC really want and love a hard Brexit

Look at the state of this on BBCQT later

 

And the UKIP propaganda machine keeps rolling on. 

[Haggis_trap]

16 hours ago, Rossy said:

The Tories, to a certain extent, are protected by a right-wing, anti-EU press who will simply refuse to publish any story that suggests that Brexit was the biggest act of economic and political stupidity in British history.

And even when things go tits up, the blame will be fairly and squarely placed on the shoulders of these damn foreigners.....'they're stopping us taking back control, innit'...

Aye - the only chance of Brexit being economic success is the EU failing...

Being cynical they are sh!t scared of Scotland gaining any economic advantage from continued EU membership.
This being a proven success would be the ultimate embarrassment for the far right UKIP and Tory lords.
It would also also rUK to make a direct comparison.
Therefore no special deal or IndyRef2.0 until we have been removed kicking and screaming from the EU.

[Alibi]

One point that should be getting repeated over and over is that there is a tremendous opportunity for Scotland to become the new home for many many businesses that want to have a presence within the EU.  A huge number of companies have already established Irish companies in anticipation of Brexit.  Scotland could be a major beneficiary of the flight of companies from the rUK at Brexit, but we need to grasp the opportunity before Ireland becomes the default choice.  Pointing such a possibility out can't wait for the actual indy campaign.

[Alan]

The EU is anything but pragmatic.  (Moving parliament from Brussels to Strasbourg is not pragmatic but madness).  That is one of the reasons we are in this mess and the pressures experienced in various countries.  There is an "elite" who are pushing for more integration which unfortunately is causing the project to destabilise.  The set up of the €uro was a massive mistake and its damaged poorer countries.  It's now going to lose a member who pays a surplus and will lose cash, status and influence.

[aaid]

23 minutes ago, Alan said:

The EU is anything but pragmatic.  (Moving parliament from Brussels to Strasbourg is not pragmatic but madness).  That is one of the reasons we are in this mess and the pressures experienced in various countries.  There is an "elite" who are pushing for more integration which unfortunately is causing the project to destabilise.  The set up of the €uro was a massive mistake and its damaged poorer countries.  It's now going to lose a member who pays a surplus and will lose cash, status and influence.

If the EU is such a disaster, why were you campaigning so hard for Remain?

 

[Alan]

7 minutes ago, aaid said:

If the EU is such a disaster, why were you campaigning so hard for Remain?

Pretty boring reasons.  I prefer stability and changing from within. Being part of something bigger.  It worked for me, I've done reasonable bit of travelling and work with people from all over and believe in liberal movement of trade and people.  UK had a decent deal - opt outs, large size so influence economically and historically, rebate and no €uro adoption.  And as with another referendum the arguments were so uncosted and bogus I was getting severe "Groundhog Day".

I do find many peoples reasons and ideology conflicting and illogical for staying though.  Plus the grievance its used to generate.  Only 55% of people in Glasgow even voted.  More voted Leave or just didn't care than Remain.

[aaid]

1 minute ago, Alan said:

 Only 55% of people in Glasgow even voted.  More voted Leave or just didn't care than Remain.

You make some good points but whenever you bring people who didn't vote in an attempt to make the result look different you void your argument.   More people voted Yes or didn't vote than No in 2014, that's meaningless as well.  

Its interesting though that you had conditional support for the EU but you have unconditional support for the UK.

[Rossy]

40 years ago you had people riding donkeys down Grafton Street in Dublin, and Greece, Spain and Portugal were 3rd world countries with economies and living standards closer to Africa than northern Europe. 

Greece in particular was an economic basket case with a medieval tax system. And when everything was f*cked, every generation or so, they simply devalued their currency, wrote everything off and started again. 

EU investment dragged these countries into the 20th century and has supported and boosted their economies. 

Maybe none of them should have joined the Euro, but the Euro is certainly not to blame for 'making people in these countries poorer'. They were already f*cked because of a lifetime of mismanagement by their own governments.

[PapofGlencoe]

11 minutes ago, Rossy said:

40 years ago you had people riding donkeys down Grafton Street in Dublin, and Greece, Spain and Portugal were 3rd world countries with economies and living standards closer to Africa than northern Europe. 

Greece in particular was an economic basket case with a medieval tax system. And when everything was f*cked, every generation or so, they simply devalued their currency, wrote everything off and started again. 

EU investment dragged these countries into the 20th century and has supported and boosted their economies. 

Maybe none of them should have joined the Euro, but the Euro is certainly not to blame for 'making people in these countries poorer'. They were already f*cked because of a lifetime of mismanagement by their own governments.

We're seeing an alignment of the economies.  Lays bare the discrepancies in the cost of living between the different economies.  Whether the long term goal of all that is worth doing is an interesting debating point.  Not being able to devalue will affect people.

Bit off topic but alongside the economy alignment, the technology changing and ordinary peoples' labour becoming less valuable a real problem is going to bubble away in the next 15 years.

We've gone from manufacturing to service-led to high tech across Scotland, UK and Europe. Pushing ordinary people out of work.  Unless you're in a profession that will be protected by the well off, we're all doing jobs on borrowed time.

In Finance, they're finding new tech which means the job of 10 can be done by 1.  Jobs will be project based and fixed term contracts.  Thin end of the wedge now; ticking time bomb for ordinary people. 

I think we're in the eye of the storm now.  But in ten years I'm not sure many of the office jobs being done now will still exist.  Christ knows what people are going to do.

Edited February 23, 2017 by PapofGlencoe