Holyrood Election - Second Vote

[McDange]

Seeing lots of conflicting reports on how best to cast your second Holyrood vote if you're an Independence supporter. Obviously all parties are saying to vote for them but given the SNP are pretty much going to clear up the constituency vote, will they get any in on the list? 

I'd like to see Holyrood filled with as many pro-indy MSPs as possible.Anyone got a no nonsense low-down?

[Stapes]

This made it clearer for me:

https://rollingpolling2016.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/survation-15th-20th-of-april/

[Alibi]

Last time the SNP only go a majority because of list MSPs.  The same may well be the case this time.  If you vote for someone else on the list to get additional independence-supporting MSPs, bear in mind that at best you will replace an SNP list MSP with a Green MSP, and not all Greens are pro-indy; you are just as likely, in fact more likely, to get a unionist list MSP in place of an SNP MSP.

The reason there is a not-so-subtle "vote anybody but SNP on the list" campaign/narrative in the mainstream media is that it suits the unionist agenda - they want to deny the SNP an overall majority as that makes a second referendum less likely.  That is what this disinformation campaign is all about.

If you want Indy, it has to be both votes SNP.  After Indy is the time to break away and vote for whoever else you want.  Now is not the time to lose focus and dance to a unionist establishment tune.

[McDange]

Can always rely on the TAMB! 

[Parklife]

37 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Last time the SNP only go a majority because of list MSPs.  The same may well be the case this time.  If you vote for someone else on the list to get additional independence-supporting MSPs, bear in mind that at best you will replace an SNP list MSP with a Green MSP, and not all Greens are pro-indy; you are just as likely, in fact more likely, to get a unionist list MSP in place of an SNP MSP.

The reason there is a not-so-subtle "vote anybody but SNP on the list" campaign/narrative in the mainstream media is that it suits the unionist agenda - they want to deny the SNP an overall majority as that makes a second referendum less likely.  That is what this disinformation campaign is all about.

If you want Indy, it has to be both votes SNP.  After Indy is the time to break away and vote for whoever else you want.  Now is not the time to lose focus and dance to a unionist establishment tune.

Do you see everything as Unionist vs Independence supporting? 

[scotlad]

45 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Last time the SNP only go a majority because of list MSPs.  The same may well be the case this time.  If you vote for someone else on the list to get additional independence-supporting MSPs, bear in mind that at best you will replace an SNP list MSP with a Green MSP, and not all Greens are pro-indy; you are just as likely, in fact more likely, to get a unionist list MSP in place of an SNP MSP.

The reason there is a not-so-subtle "vote anybody but SNP on the list" campaign/narrative in the mainstream media is that it suits the unionist agenda - they want to deny the SNP an overall majority as that makes a second referendum less likely.  That is what this disinformation campaign is all about.

If you want Indy, it has to be both votes SNP.  After Indy is the time to break away and vote for whoever else you want.  Now is not the time to lose focus and dance to a unionist establishment tune.

I think the fact that most polls show little change in terms of support for indy makes a second referendum less likely.  There's nae sense in the SNP holding another referendum if they don't think they will win it.  Brexit may change that, but a couple of recent polls have suggested that the momentum is swinging back towards Remain.  If the UK does vote to Remain in the EU I can't think of another set of circumstances strong enough to trigger another independence referendum in the short to medium term.

[MacWalka]

20 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Do you see everything as Unionist vs Independence supporting? 

Seems most politcally active folk these days view everything as indy vs uniony or in rare cases left vs right.

I honestly don't know how to vote this year, the SNP haven't done enough to retain my vote but no one else has done enough to win it either. Plus my local SNP candidate is Alex Neil and he definitely isn't getting my vote. I'll probably just draw a veiny triumphant jizzing cock on my constituency paper and vote for whoever I feel like on the list paper.

[scotlad]

12 minutes ago, MacWalka said:

Seems most politcally active folk these days view everything as indy vs uniony or in rare cases left vs right.

I honestly don't know how to vote this year, the SNP haven't done enough to retain my vote but no one else has done enough to win it either. Plus my local SNP candidate is Alex Neil and he definitely isn't getting my vote. I'll probably just draw a veiny triumphant jizzing cock on my constituency paper and vote for whoever I feel like on the list paper.

Nae luck there! 

 

[MacWalka]

9 minutes ago, scotlad said:

Nae luck there! 

 

Tell me about it. I was at a hustings before the referendum and didn't know whether to kill myself from boredom or kill him for lying when he was speaking.

[aaid]

36 minutes ago, Stapes said:

This made it clearer for me:

https://rollingpolling2016.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/survation-15th-20th-of-april/

I think there are some real problems with that analysis - not least that the %ages he is quoting for the List vote bear no resemblance whatsoever to the underlying data tables.   For example, in Glasgow, for the Tories he is giving a figure of 7.8%, the underlying data for the Survation poll has them at either 13.2%, 14.2% or 16.2% - there are different figures based on weighting, likelihood to vote and when don't knows are removed.   So I've absolutely no idea where that 7.8% figure is coming from.

Assuming I've missed something somewhere and even if that 7.8% is correct the major issue is that this poll - and all other polls - are using incredibly small samples.   That Survation poll - on the List question - only had 962 respondents.  That's fair enough for a national poll but to try to use that to try and apply that to tactical voting in a regional or even constituency list is just guessing.   For example, that poll only had 50 respondents in the South of Scotland region - what are you supposed to imply from such a small sample.  

Even assuming that the polls themselves are returning numbers that accurately reflect the actual votes - and that is a very big assumption - then to have any sort of reasonable information to base a judgement on you would need to have polls similar to the Lord Ashcroft constituency polls that were done last year, i.e. a minimum of 1000 people polled per region and I don't think this will happen.

I note that the guy behind that blog is a Green - and obviously he has a bias there, no problem with that - but I'd like to see his working before taking any notice of his conclusions as they don't look quite right to me.

Actually, I've just noticed that none of the totals for his regional distribution even add up to 100%, so this all looks like total Jackie Baillie mathematics to me.

The one simple fact though is that if your primary objective in this election is to return as many pro-Indy MSPs as possible then the only way to guarantee that is to vote for the SNP on both the list and constituency as this will mean that they will pick up list seats to compensate for the constituencies they do not win in.    Despite the polls, the SNP will not win all the constituencies.  This is where I think there will be tactical voting with Tories, Labour and Lib Dems getting behind the local candidate likely to beat the SNP.  To me, that was a crucial factor in Ian Murray being elected last year.

If you want to try and second guess the outcome and vote for Greens, Solidarity or RISE then you may see one of them elected but similarly it may actually let one of the Unionist parties pick up additional seats.

 

[Parklife]

57 minutes ago, MacWalka said:

Seems most politcally active folk these days view everything as indy vs uniony

Depressing. 

[PapofGlencoe]

For the first time in my life i'm considering voting for another party on the list than the SNP.

Before the SNP were dominant, maintaining a Scottish presence was important to me (whilst being sure it's nationalism with a small n! with a left bent).  Voting for them unequivocally sent a clear message to London that there remained those in Scotland who continued to reserve the right to see things differently and maintained our national distinctiveness.  Maintaining your culture feels more important when it feels under threat.  When it's not under threat, it seems of less value or even silly.  It's why often some of my foreign friends have a slight disdain for patriotism.  They've never seen their countries regionalised as Scotland has.

This is no longer the case.  Scotland is a modern, diverse country.  It's never been so sure of itself regardless of the vote in 2014.  The people of my generation simply don't take as gospel our nation is as poor as bangladesh.  Those days are gone.

I don't like The National, the facile manifestos, and sloganising that i'm seeing.  It's slick, it's winning but where are the houses, the jobs and the radical ideas?  There are still people who are on poverty salaries and terrible working conditions that feel powerless whilst the rich get richer.  I don't hear much about it from the SNP.  They're more interested in not rocking the boat to get a majority for independence.

I've had the displeasure of listening to a prominent Green on the train one day; i've never heard such pretentious nonsense in my life.  RISE want a referendum ASAP.  I don't agree with that either.  We need intelligent, left arguments.  Not going after the zealot, flag waving vote.  I've also heard more from both of them on their "second vote strategy" (mathematical bollocks by the way) than their actual policies.

I don't know. Scunnered man.

Edited April 25, 2016 by PapofGlencoe

[MacWalka]

57 minutes ago, Parklife said:

Depressing. 

It truly is, especially the lack of scrutiny on the SNP Government leading to whataboutery of Labour etc.

[Orraloon]

I think it's all pretty simple. If you want the SNP to have an overall majority then the best plan is to vote SNP twice. If you don't want them to have a majority then don't vote for them at all. All this talk of tactical voting is just a crude attempt at getting more unionist MSPs elected. It might just work because a lot of folk just don't have the time or the inclination to understand how our voting system works.

 

[Ally Bongo]

8 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I don't like The National, the facile manifestos, and sloganising that i'm seeing.  It's slick, it's winning but where are the houses, the jobs and the radical ideas?  There are still people who are on poverty salaries and terrible working conditions that feel powerless whilst the rich get richer.  I don't hear much about it from the SNP.  They're more interested in not rocking the boat to get a majority for independence.

You do realise that Scotland has to run it's affairs from the money we get back from Westminster dont you ?

As such any Scottish Government is limited to what it can do

Thats why we want Independence

Being really scunnered is realising some people think otherwise and believe that any Scottish Government can wave a magic wand and be really radical

 

Edited April 25, 2016 by Ally Bongo

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

You do realise that Scotland has to run it's affairs from the money we get back from Westminster dont you ?

As such any Scottish Government is limited to what it can do

Thats why we want Independence

Being really scunnered is realising some people think otherwise

Lots of folk don't realise that. The media campaign has been quite successful in that respect. More and more folk seem to think that the SG just needs to increase income tax and the counties problems can be solved. It's clearly utter nonsense but the propaganda is starting to work.

[Ally Bongo]

http://sb.snp.org/achievements/untitled.html

[ErsatzThistle]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

You do realise that Scotland has to run it's affairs from the money we get back from Westminster dont you ?

As such any Scottish Government is limited to what it can do

Thats why we want Independence

Being really scunnered is realising some people think otherwise and believe that any Scottish Government can wave a magic wand and be really radical

 

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Lots of folk don't realise that. The media campaign has been quite successful in that respect. More and more folk seem to think that the SG just needs to increase income tax and the counties problems can be solved. It's clearly utter nonsense but the propaganda is starting to work.

Two good posts there 

Anyone thinking of voting Labour should watch how their MP's in particular that cünt John Woodcock behaved in Westminster yesterday during a debate on the future of Clyde shipbuilding. Bitter wee pwicks they are, still obsessed with petty little digs at the SNP and pretending they care about "that place Keir Hardy came from".

[Return of Yermaw]

Voted SNP and Greens. it may help the "big three" but I want independence and I want to see a lot more environmentally focussed policies.

[Parklife]

8 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

http://sb.snp.org/achievements/untitled.html

They have the brassneck to mention the Council Tax in their first achievement. The very thing they promised to replace with a fairer local income tax, when they were first elected. 

[stocky]

10 minutes ago, Parklife said:

They have the brassneck to mention the Council Tax in their first achievement. The very thing they promised to replace with a fairer local income tax, when they were first elected. 

except it was out voted by the opposition.Democracy in action

Replacing it was not on 2011 manifesto, Freezing it was.

I dont like the Council Tax, but the SNP have done whet they said they would do. 

[Parklife]

10 minutes ago, stocky said:

except it was out voted by the opposition.Democracy in action

IIRC the SNP never even brought forward a bill to replace the council tax. 

[stocky]

8 minutes ago, Parklife said:

IIRC the SNP never even brought forward a bill to replace the council tax. 

u could be correct, I cannae mind exactly, maybe the discussion stages, the committee bit etc it  was outvoted?

Or mibee they used minority govt it as an excuse, 

maybe they realised it was too hard and thats why it wasnt on 2011 manifesto and used Minority govt to drop it....

I dont think they can really be blamed for not implementing it in a Minority govt. 

I think Tinkering with it is the best we are gonna get for now...... unfortunately...

[Scunnered]

15 minutes ago, stocky said:

except it was out voted by the opposition.Democracy in action

No it wasn't, the SNP didn't even bring it before parliament. Swinney said they didn't believe they could secure a majority on it and said it would be abolished in the 2011 parliamentary session... But it didn't even appear in the manifesto.

[Lamia]

16 minutes ago, stocky said:

except it was out voted by the opposition.Democracy in action

Replacing it was not on 2011 manifesto, 

 

Why not? 

I haven't read the latest manifesto - I take it it is back in since there would little danger of it being blocked this time?