Redz Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Mox said: It's a huge step for sure, but I honestly don't think we'd vote for independence any time soon. Whilst I wouldn't disagree as of now, there's 'enough' coming / happening that suggests we might in time though. The timing itself will very much depend on how Scotland continues to be ignored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: I think there are different brands of unionism and Corbyn's is very different from, say, George Galloway's, never mind the Tories'. Corbyn is fundamentally interested in other things, and tinkering with the constitution would be a distraction.And although he may support Palestinian and Irish causes while having a blind spot for Scotland, there seems to be an abstract ideological angle to that, not so much to do with the particular local geography (or put another way, his argument about solving Scotland's problem with Westminster and the Tories is to have him as PM, rather than independence). I think in other circumstances you could imagine him going along with independence, or deals with the SNP, if it were to suit his bigger agenda. Though the likelihood of him being in a position for this to matter seems to be receding, and in the short term all he is doing - in saying no to Kezia etc - is reinforcing the branch office perception so is useful to Scottish nationalism (and it doesn't really matter that he's English - it could have been Gordon B ) George Galloway is a different kettle of fish, his views seem much more entrenched and entangled with emotional attachment to his views of Britain and Ireland. So for those seeking converts to the cause of independence, it could be that Corbynistas could be open to persuasion, whereas Gallowegians probably not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 His statement that....'Brexit is good for Scotland, independence bad'...is baffling.And ignorant and insulting. But, it only sums up his pathetic lack of opposition to the Tories as they push through this horrific Ukip agenda unopposed. Labour are a laughing stock under Corbyn, and the whole thing is beyond parody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 36 minutes ago, Rossy said: His statement that....'Brexit is good for Scotland, independence bad'...is baffling.And ignorant and insulting. I didn't see that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 28 minutes ago, exile said: I didn't see that... He's paraphrasing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Redz said: Whilst I wouldn't disagree as of now, there's 'enough' coming / happening that suggests we might in time though. The timing itself will very much depend on how Scotland continues to be ignored. If you take the polls as they currently stand there hasn't really been much of a change since September 2014. There's some ups and downs, but it's all in the margin of error and you could argue until the cows come home but I would say that support for Independence is broadly where it was back in 2014. There was a little increase immediately after the Brexit vote which has receded and which looks like it was an immediate reaction. There's also anectdotal evidence of people switching both ways as a result of Brexit although I don't think that's been quantified. I think it's safe to say that the base level of support going into the next referendum campaign is around 45%. In reality, you wouldn't really expect there to be much of a shift as while it's clear that the constitution is the single most important issue in Scottish Politics - some would say the only one - and there has been a lot of noise around a "second referendum" - largely from the Tories - the arguments for and against haven't really advanced since 2014. Even Brexit is currently just a huge big unknown. i think there's good reasons why this is the case. Firstly, all the political parties had to fight Westminster and Holyrood elections which took all their time and resources and in the case of Labour knocked the stuffing out of them. I think the SNPs strategy was to get the elections and the EU referendum out of the way and then they could start a long, relatively low key, path towards building support in advance of going into the 2021 Holyrood elections with a unequivocal pledge to hold a second referendum in their manifesto. i don't think any of the political parties expected the EU referendum to turn out the way it did, although by the looks of things, the SNP at least had considered that it might and had a fall back plan in place. Secondly, Brexit completely changes the landscape but - until this week - we had very little clarity on what the UK government hope to achieve and even now we still have very little other than a vague and often contradictory wish list. That makes it very difficult for the SNP to formulate any sort of policy until they know what it will look like. We're now starting to see some debate and discussion on things like currency and the like which is to be welcomed. If an Indyref2 campaign kicked off today, we've got the following. Base support for independence is around 18 points higher than at the start of Indyref1. Yes Scotland is in a much stronger position as while the official organisation was disbanded, the various grass roots and support groups and organisations are either in hibernation or never really stopped. Better Together is a fractured alliance. Next time around it will be a Tory led and fronted campaign, which will be an anathema for a lot. In the wake of Brexit a lot of the the 2014 BT arguments have either been shown to be empty threats or promises or are no longer valid. There are still weaknesses in some of the economic arguments which need to be addressed - and quickly - although I think they are largely different arguments from 2014. I'm not necessarily saying that the next Indyref *will* be won, there is a lot of work to be done to make that happen but with all that in mind, I can see how it *could* be won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 hours ago, aaid said: Base support for independence is around 18 points higher than at the start of Indyref1. There's far fewer undecideds now though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 40 minutes ago, Toepoke said: There's far fewer undecideds now though... That is true, but that doesn't mean that - on both sides - that people have made their minds up once and for all. There will certainly be an element of that but also there will be many who haven't changed their view because nothing has happened or they haven't heard any different arguments to make them change it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Another week goes by, another pounding Corbyn delivers to Theresa May at PMQ's. Don't expect we'll be told much about anything by the MSM though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark frae Crieff Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Parklife said: Another week goes by, another pounding Corbyn delivers to Theresa May at PMQ's. Don't expect we'll be told much about anything by the MSM though. The bit about Surrey and their council tax had her speaking like the riddler from Batman. These are the alleged texts sent by the Head of Surrey Council. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 May is completely incompetent and an appalling communicator. Time and again she just comes up with stock answers.."you voted No..." etc. Corbyn should be, and maybe is, ripping her but i must agree with Parkie (aarrghh) the media are very, very easy on May.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 hours ago, Parklife said: Another week goes by, another pounding Corbyn delivers to Theresa May at PMQ's. Don't expect we'll be told much about anything by the MSM though. Just watched as soon as I came home there, he was absolutely brilliant. The little sound bites and pre written digs that May came away with were so cringey and so repetitive, she never strays far from a couple of areas with which she can have a go at Corbyn. She is so far out of her depth and looks so uncomfortable any time I see her, it's a wonder she continues to get a free ride on the tripe she comes away with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Jeremy Corbyn fecked? Don't know about that but he's just been Sturgeoned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Teresa has at least got a new mantra though. "SHUT UP SCOTLAND" means "SHUT UP SCOTLAND" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Dugdale completely rubbish as usual at FMQs today. Ruth Davidson leads on the Sutton Trust report, which is pretty obvious that she's going to do. Then up comes Dugdale and what does she go on, the Sutton Trust report and basically repeats the same points that Davidson made. The FM, funnily enough gives the same rebuttals. its pretty clear that they have no plan B, if they did, they would take the FM to task on a completely different topic. It's not providing any useful opposition. You would think they would want to disassociate themselves from the Tories, this isn't the way to do it. If you look at why Angus Robertson gets so much credit for his performance at PMQs, part of it is his own personal gravitas but most of it is down to preparation. He very rarely goes on the same topic as Corbyn, if he does he takes a different tack. Often, he goes with the questions Corbyn should ask but doesn't. You just know he's prepared to tear up the script if necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertsscot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 On 21/01/2017 at 11:02 AM, exile said: Tried to copy picture of Corbyn, didnt work! Surely another reason why Corbyn is opposed to Scotland being independent is simply because it would make the chances of a Labour comeback even more remote. Historically Labour has seen a lot of MPS returned from Scotland and I suspect that they're still under the impression that they will see some mighty revival. Relying on English votes won't be much of a strategy as traditional Labour voters defect to UKIP, also boundary changes to constituencies should favour the Tories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Hertsscot said: . On 21/01/2017 at 11:02 AM, exile said: Tried to copy picture of Corbyn, didnt work! Are you sure? I don't recall that and can see no record I said that. Fake news? Edited February 9, 2017 by exile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertsscot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, exile said: Are you sure? I don't recall that and can see no record I said that. Fake news? My incompetency, I didn't want to quote your whole post but obviously am rubbish with posting pictures! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark frae Crieff Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 is it Jezza? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Reports that Labour will hold both Stoke and Copeland which if true is very good for Corbyn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Or Copeland maybe going to the Tories now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, aaid said: Or Copeland maybe going to the Tories now Tories romped home. Labour's early optimism seems to have come from all the urban ballot boxes arriving at the count first... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 (edited) Labour losing Copeland to a Tory representing a sitting Govt is beyond disastarous. Corbyn needs to fall on his sword. No-one will challenge him though so it needs to be his decision. Edited February 24, 2017 by EddardStark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristolhibby Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Well that's 10 years of Tories now for us all. The writing is on the wall. J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bristolhibby said: Well that's 10 years of Tories now for us all. More. It's possible that Labour could go the way of the Liberal party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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