Caledonian Craig Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 And you are also missing my valid point. Now okay lets say we had organised a friendly against say Lithuania and picked up more ranking points (presuming we were to win and not pick up needless injuries) and we draw in Ireland I'd hazard a guess we'd still miss out on Pot 2. But say it was enough it is still the luck of the draw who we get anyway regardless of Pot 2 or Pot 3. For instance if we got Pot 2 then the team we get from Pot 3 could just as easily be the team we would have got from Pot 2 had we finished in Pot 3. Also even back in the 90s as top or second seeds we got minging draws which we never qualified from so as I say Pot 2 or Pot 3 it is still the luck of the draw. Yes I do understand we would be better off in Pot 2 but it is no guarantee of a draw to our liking. End of the day my focus (and I hope the manager and players focus will be on the Ireland match and not about whether we are in Pot 2 or Pot 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 And we don't want to be having a John Kennedy situation either where we played a friendly against a physical team and we again lose players for the crucial qualifier damaging (much more importantly) our Euro qualifying hopes which are still very much alive just in aid of worrying about a World Cup draw scenario. You keep on mentioning not wanting to play a friendly v a "physical team" and John Kennedy, a one off incident that happened 11 YEARS AGO, to some how justify your position!! What crucial qualifier did Kennedy miss as a result of the injury in the Romania game? What other players have been injured in similar circumstances and missed crucial qualifiers? You said it happened "again" so there must be other examples you have? What's Qatars playing style please? Have you seen much of them off late to know they aren't physical? What happens if they lose a few goals and don't like it and start kicking lumps out of our players. The facts are any team can be physical when they want to, any player can go over the ball and do someone from the other team, either intentionally or by accident. If you are truly worried about another "John Kennedy" then you must be off the opinion we shouldn't be risking our players at all, in any friendly, prior to a qualifier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 And you are also missing my valid point. Now okay lets say we had organised a friendly against say Lithuania and picked up more ranking points (presuming we were to win and not pick up needless injuries) and we draw in Ireland I'd hazard a guess we'd still miss out on Pot 2. But say it was enough it is still the luck of the draw who we get anyway regardless of Pot 2 or Pot 3. For instance if we got Pot 2 then the team we get from Pot 3 could just as easily be the team we would have got from Pot 2 had we finished in Pot 3. Also even back in the 90s as top or second seeds we got minging draws which we never qualified from so as I say Pot 2 or Pot 3 it is still the luck of the draw. Yes I do understand we would be better off in Pot 2 but it is no guarantee of a draw to our liking. End of the day my focus (and I hope the manager and players focus will be on the Ireland match and not about whether we are in Pot 2 or Pot 3. France are going to be Pot 2. Switzerland are going to be Pot 2. Italy have a better chance of being Pot 2 than 1. I would much rather have 0% chance of getting them by being in Pot 2 with them and therefore possibly get Sweden or Iceland as the 3rd seed who we displaced from Pot 2 than be sitting in Pot 3, having about a 33% chance of getting one of those. That's how simple it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 You keep on mentioning not wanting to play a friendly v a "physical team" and John Kennedy, a one off incident that happened 11 YEARS AGO, to some how justify your position!! What crucial qualifier did Kennedy miss as a result of the injury in the Romania game? What other players have been injured in similar circumstances and missed crucial qualifiers? You said it happened "again" so there must be other examples you have? What's Qatars playing style please? Have you seen much of them off late to know they aren't physical? What happens if they lose a few goals and don't like it and start kicking lumps out of our players. The facts are any team can be physical when they want to, any player can go over the ball and do someone from the other team, either intentionally or by accident. If you are truly worried about another "John Kennedy" then you must be off the opinion we shouldn't be risking our players at all, in any friendly, prior to a qualifier. Kennedy is one example. Are you telling me we've never had players pick up injuries in friendlies before? Of course there will have been. Point taken about not knowing what Qatar are like but I've asked this question already before what team should we have played then at this time? Also someon earlier claimed this is the worst team we've ever arranged a friendly against? Somehow I doubt it. Hong Kong XI? Cyprus? Qatar are ranked similarly to European teams in pot 5 and 6. My priority here is getting a result in Dublin and pray to god the players aren't like people on here wasting nervous energy about a draw for a tournament 18 months in the future. Okay Pot 2 would be better (don't think I have ever said otherwise) but Pot 3 is still progress and like I said it still all comes down to the draw. Also I assume the person who posted on the ranking thread (page 11) has accurate data and he has us with 25% chance of Pot 2 and 75% of Pot 3 so by my estimation not only friendly result but also we'd rely on other teams ballsing up somewhere along the line for us to be only at 25%. Anyway I will leave you all to throw daggers at the SFA and Strachan as I have said my bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Kennedy is one example. Are you telling me we've never had players pick up injuries in friendlies before? Of course there will have been. Point taken about not knowing what Qatar are like but I've asked this question already before what team should we have played then at this time? Also someon earlier claimed this is the worst team we've ever arranged a friendly against? Somehow I doubt it. Hong Kong XI? Cyprus? Qatar are ranked similarly to European teams in pot 5 and 6. My priority here is getting a result in Dublin and pray to god the players aren't like people on here wasting nervous energy about a draw for a tournament 18 months in the future. Okay Pot 2 would be better (don't think I have ever said otherwise) but Pot 3 is still progress and like I said it still all comes down to the draw. Also I assume the person who posted on the ranking thread (page 11) has accurate data and he has us with 25% chance of Pot 2 and 75% of Pot 3 so by my estimation not only friendly result but also we'd rely on other teams ballsing up somewhere along the line for us to be only at 25%. Anyway I will leave you all to throw daggers at the SFA and Strachan as I have said my bit. No, you are the one who is telling us of the dangers of players getting injured in friendlies v "physical teams" and missing crucial qualifiers AGAIN. Note the word again you use meaning it happened before in your opinion. Therefore you must be able to provide us with examples to back up this statement otherwise it's a completely worthless throwaway comment. For your info, Kennedy, the example you keep on quoting, got injured in a game in March and our next competitive game was in September. So it was nothing like the upcoming scenario and doesn't back up your point at all. And we have only played 3 friendlies in the week directly before a qualifier in the last 15 years. One was NI before Gib, one was a win in Austria before facing the Faroe Islands and 5 days before we played Slovenia at start of WC 2006 qualifiers we went away and played some no hopers called Spain. In relation to the pots, again, if we win in Ireland we are 90% in Pot 2, meaning other teams results are mainly irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brassrubber Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 The three who went on this jolly need to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Agreed. I'm nearly sure one of them is busy enough anyway and has been posting a lot on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 (edited) Lets put a different slant on this - the views held by people (not all) on here as first page clearly shows others don't have a problem either - and this is what I see. People accusing the SFA (first of all) of using the Qatar game to line their own pockets first and foremost. Proof please? Quit being so one-eyed and consider the possibility that money will go into grassroots level of Scottish football or perhaps the other motive is one I've seen before. A deal for a friendly here and a friendly a few years down the line in return in Qatar prior to the World Cup to use it to acclimatise the squad to playing in testing conditions. Those are two distinct possibilities that cannot be denied. As for the ranking points side of things I do see where people are coming from but when this friendly was set-up I cannot recall anyone contemplating Pot 2 here. The whole pathetic part of this and really sad is the accusations that I am either on the wind-up or a SFA employee just because I am not on the 'Let's all attack the SFA' bandwagon. I have my opinion on the Qatar friendly okay I grasp others see it as some sort of heinious crime but I am far more interested in what happens in Dublin than a few days before it. Edited April 25, 2015 by Caledonian Craig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotsgary1 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Obviously pot two is better than pot three You are completely missing the point. You completely are dismissing the the average points factual information. It is a fact that by playing this particular game that our pot two chances are reduced. Yes it's all dependent on a result in Ireland but the body that run our game should be doing everything in its power to aid the progression of our game. This game even with a win in Ireland reduces our chance of pot 2. That is a fact. That is why I am annoyed. Much like the ticket pricing it is an ill thought out, self serving decision by the ruling body of our national game. Completely agree with this post. The SFA should be doing there best to get us to qualify. But do think alot has been blown out of proportion here by the media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagtag Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 (edited) The whole pathetic part of this and really sad is the accusations that I am either on the wind-up or a SFA employee just because I am not on the 'Let's all attack the SFA' bandwagon. I have my opinion on the Qatar friendly okay I grasp others see it as some sort of heinious crime but I am far more interested in what happens in Dublin than a few days before it. I stick up for the SFA/SSC more than most when I think it's merited but will criticise when I think so too.Your attitude is defeatest to say the least. If up to you we would never play a friendly against anyone who might beat us. As for injuries that you spout on about, I think history will show that the lower the standard of player the more likely they are to miss time challenges and cause injury. The fact of the matter here is that whether you or the SFA like it or not playing a team as lowly ranked as Qatar will damage our world cup qualification hopes. Playing a team ranked closer to us will be tougher yes, at least though it would make it more important and give us a chance to win and move up a pot in the world cup draw. Edited April 25, 2015 by Jagtag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Yes Jagtag and I have criticised as well. Look back through my post history and you will see I was vociferous in my criticism of the SFA in not being held culpable themselves for making naff managerial appointments. As for friendlies I don't have an issue about playing them but, like any supporters, prior to a crunch match a few days later you watch with nervousness that a key player picks up an injury and misses out. We can do without that. As for damaging our qualification hopes I think that is far too soon to say isn't it? Wait and see what the draw gives us - okay Pot 2 would be better but it is no guarantee of an easier draw - increases the chances of it but is no guarantee. Just look at groups we got as top or second seeds in 90s to see tough groups still come your way. And finally yes playing a tougher team would make it much tougher to win against them and a win may move us up a pot but that becomes immaterial if we don't get the result in Ireland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 You are completely missing the point. You completely are dismissing the the average points factual information. It is a fact that by playing this particular game that our pot two chances are reduced. Yes it's all dependent on a result in Ireland but the body that run our game should be doing everything in its power to aid the progression of our game. This game even with a win in Ireland reduces our chance of pot 2. That is a fact. That is why I am annoyed. Much like the ticket pricing it is an ill thought out, self serving decision by the ruling body of our national game. Beat Ireland and we have a 90% chance of pot 2. Beat Ireland and Qatar and it becomes 99%. That's according to Edgar at Football Rankingsc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robroysboy Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Beat Ireland and we have a 90% chance of pot 2. Beat Ireland and Qatar and it becomes 99%. That's according to Edgar at Football Rankingsc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Beat Ireland and we have a 90% chance of pot 2. Beat Ireland and Qatar and it becomes 99%. That's according to Edgar at Football Rankingsc Watch it Dalgety Bay or else you'll be accused of being either on the wind-up or a SFA employee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flynnyboy Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Beat Ireland and we have a 90% chance of pot 2. Beat Ireland and Qatar and it becomes 99%. That's according to Edgar at Football Rankingsc IF that's the case I stand corrected. If you would be so kind to add a link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EIFA10 Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 IF that's the case I stand corrected. If you would be so kind to add a link? http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/04/2018-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html?showComment=1428087609141&m=1#c4809595362283528293 Read down the comments section. I have no idea how legitimate the scenarios run by this Edgar chap are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalgety Bay TA Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Read down the comments section. I have no idea how legitimate the scenarios run by this Edgar chap are. Every football game has a predicted number of goals based on the form/history of the 2 sides involved. Edgar is using a mathematical formula to predict the number of goals and outcome of the match. He runs the same prediction 10000 times, so a decent number of scenarios will spring up and it's fair to say he has a very good sample size with 10000 simulations. He then takes the average pot outcome of the results of all the games to predict the chances of us being in x pot. Bookies will use similar formula and prediction models as the basis for their odds in a football match. Interesting to see he also says that if Wales beat Belgium they will be in pot 1 irrespective of any other results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davew Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 IF that's the case I stand corrected. If you would be so kind to add a link? I don't think anything you wrote on this thread has been corrected. Presumably, without any friendly at all, we would have just needed to beat Ireland to be certain of pot 2. However, it is good to know that, even with the negative impact of the Qatar friendly, our chances of making pot 2 are still realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Reassuring that we're still there if we win in dublin but it just shows you the difference the opposition makes - massive boost to ranking position from beating ireland who are still ranked lower than us vs neglible impact from beating qatar. The key is the opportunity loss - the boost we could have had. The big travesty will be if we draw in a dublin - in that case it looks like a friendly home game v a very beatable team ranked lower (but not way way down like Qatar) would have made a difference. I guess this whole pots and ranking thing took the sfa by surprise. It's maybe a new thing. Also, it's not like they get paid to manage situations like this. They are doing it for the good of the game and out of the goodness of their own heart so we maybe should just back off a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McToot Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 (edited) I see Ireland are playing Northern Ireland in a closed doors match. I guess if we wanted a run out that was an option. Doesn't pay the same as a game does though.... Whether that be against Qatar or anyone Edited April 27, 2015 by McToot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagtag Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Presumably, without any friendly at all, we would have just needed to beat Ireland to be certain of pot 2. I believe a draw with Ireland could have been enough to make pot 2 if we didn't play Qatar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastiebeastie Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 We need a friendly and better taking one that's hopefully risk free, gives WGS the chance to try a few things and still get a win. If we also beat Ireland it's likely pot 2. SFA are fannies but folks should chill. Come June we will be celebrating victory in Dublin and pot 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotsgary1 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Every football game has a predicted number of goals based on the form/history of the 2 sides involved. Edgar is using a mathematical formula to predict the number of goals and outcome of the match. He runs the same prediction 10000 times, so a decent number of scenarios will spring up and it's fair to say he has a very good sample size with 10000 simulations. He then takes the average pot outcome of the results of all the games to predict the chances of us being in x pot. Bookies will use similar formula and prediction models as the basis for their odds in a football match. Interesting to see he also says that if Wales beat Belgium they will be in pot 1 irrespective of any other results. You lost me after the word Every............................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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