Next Poll

[Orraloon]

Wow. After all that last week it has hardly made a dent. Yet again, amazing.

They just don't "get it". They really don't understand what is going on.

[thplinth]

They just don't "get it". They really don't understand what is going on.

I agree but how do you explain the polls and the bookies at this point?

[Maq]

I agree but how do you explain the polls and the bookies at this point?

I don't know, but I hope that the polls don't reflect what's actually happening because polling companies don't reach everyone - and won't reflect a lot of working classes who either don't participate in polls or aren't usually involved in elections

As for bookies - aren't they just reflecting their 'risk' i.e. what bets have been placed with them, what the polls are saying? So they could (hopefully) be wrong!

Anyone got any idea what the bookies stand to lose in the event of a Yes vote?

Normally at world cups don't you see articles like 'bookies to lose £50million if England win' for example?

[Orraloon]

I agree but how do you explain the polls and the bookies at this point?

That depends on who you are trying to explain them to. Which paper is that from? Maybe they are starting to realise, but hopefully it's too late.

[mariokempes56]

Bookies won't lose. All the huge bets are on the NO side which is why YES is so high.

[Squirrelhumper]

Some tit has 900k on No.

[thplinth]

That depends on who you are trying to explain them to. Which paper is that from? Maybe they are starting to realise, but hopefully it's too late.

I believe it was the Sun, someone posted it on another thread.

[Govanhill Jacobite]

That depends on who you are trying to explain them to. Which paper is that from? Maybe they are starting to realise, but hopefully it's too late.

Pretty sure it's the Sun

[Orraloon]

Bookies won't lose. All the huge bets are on the NO side which is why YES is so high.

Bookies hardly ever lose. they just have some days when the make a lot less than on good days.

[Orraloon]

Some tit has 900k on No.

It's probably not private money anyway. It might have come from some government slush fund. £1 million is peanuts to these folk. If they were worried about losing all that money they just bang on the big bets on NO then wait for really good odds on YES and offset the bet. I don't know what odds they got but just as an example - they put 900K on NO at 1 to 9 and 100K on YES at 8 to 1. They are guaranteed to lose some money but it's a small price to pay to manipulate the odds to make it look good for NO.

I sometimes impress myself at how cynical I can be.

[Orraloon]

I believe it was the Sun, someone posted it on another thread.

Looks like it is tucked into a wee corner somewhere, which is good.

[thplinth]

What worries me is we have something very big happening on the street versus almost nothing for No and yet the bookies and polls do not reflect it. I do not doubt the street at all, I doubt the polls and the bookies, but the chances of them all being wrong by accident does not sit well with me. I think this is a sign of possible funny business. There have been lots of polls but all conducted by just a handful of pollsters. I am worried about a fix, keeping it looking close would be essential for this.

[Toepoke]

I'm certain there is a huge "silent" No vote ready to exit the woodwork, will it be big enough?....

[thplinth]

Some tit has 900k on No.

Did you see the odds he got as well? Bloody awful. I always wondered who put that bet on. Worst value bet I have ever seen for that kind of stake.

[tartandon]

I'm certain there is a huge "silent" No vote ready to exit the woodwork, will it be big enough?....

this is my worry as well.

I fear that they have been remaining silent and will quietly tun up, tick the No box and shuffle off back to their wee hole.

[Auld_Reekie]

Did you see the odds he got as well? Bloody awful. I always wondered who put that bet on. Worst value bet I have ever seen for that kind of stake.

Yep. IMO, that bet was designed, in part at least, to ensure the odds of Yes were pitched very long from a very early stage in the campaign and alongside the suspect polling, make independence look like the stuff of fantasy. Polling and odds are really the two main indicators used to articulate how realistic independence is. It's been said many times before, but polling is used to lead public opinion not reflect it.

If I was looking to try and influence public perception, polling and odds would be my first two sources to control. Polling is easy to influence using the right techniques while the bookies just need hard cash. £1million is small change to some when it comes to shoring up public perception.

For two years, they did pretty well at it too. Unfortunately, it made many in the No camp complacent - they believed the polling and the believed the odds were true reflections of reality. And they completely under-estimated grass roots.

[Squirrelhumper]

Yes winning will pay for my Poland trip and more.

[thplinth]

Yep. IMO, that bet was designed, in part at least, to ensure the odds of Yes were pitched very long from a very early stage in the campaign and alongside the suspect polling, make independence look like the stuff of fantasy. Polling and odds are really the two main indicators used to articulate how realistic independence is. It's been said many times before, but polling is used to lead public opinion not reflect it.

If I was looking to try and influence public perception, polling and odds would be my first two sources to control. Polling is easy to influence using the right techniques while the bookies just need hard cash. £1million is small change to some when it comes to shoring up public perception.

For two years, they did pretty well at it too. Unfortunately, it made many in the No camp complacent - they believed the polling and the believed the odds were true reflections of reality. And they completely under-estimated grass roots.

So we agree. But I am more paranoid than you. I fear the reason they want to keep it close is the fix (if needed) then looks plausible.

If the SNP are not doing serious private polling before and exit to make sure all this checks out I'd be horrified. How else do we check the outcome, I don't trust them at all, you'd be start raving bonkers to IMO.

[the_fadiator]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2014/sep/09/scottish-independence-bookies-yes-campaign-indyref-no

balancing losses, recalling Quebec, and 'silent' Tories...

[Orraloon]

So we agree. But I am more paranoid than you. I fear the reason they want to keep it close is the fix (if needed) then looks plausible.

If the SNP are not doing serious private polling before and exit to make sure all this checks out I'd be horrified. How else do we check the outcome, I don't trust them at all, you'd be start raving bonkers to IMO.

I have some of the same worries as you but two things make me feel a wee bit better about it.

1. IMO the higher the turnout the harder it is to fix the result.
2. It is Scottish Labour who have the reputation for manipulating votes. They know how to do it and how to get away with it. But a lot of folk on the YES side are Labour and ex Labour people. They also know how the scams work and the Labour folk who are still on the NO side know they are being watched by folk who know what they might be up to.

They might still manage to do it but hopefully not on the scale required.

[Auld_Reekie]

I have some of the same worries as you but two things make me feel a wee bit better about it.

1. IMO the higher the turnout the harder it is to fix the result.
2. It is Scottish Labour who have the reputation for manipulating votes. They know how to do it and how to get away with it. But a lot of folk on the YES side are Labour and ex Labour people. They also know how the scams work and the Labour folk who are still on the NO side know they are being watched by folk who know what they might be up to.

They might still manage to do it but hopefully not on the scale required.

Im not convinced. If turnout comes out VERY high, I'll be suspicious. The 97% registration is a fantastic achievement but it's also an increase in the number of votes that are in play, either legitimately or for the purposes of manipulation. While it's been a very passionate campaign, I expect a significant number to consciously abstain. Turnout between 80%-90% would be about right but if we start pushing over 90% Ill start getting worried.

On Labour, the people who would be in a position to manipulate votes are highly unlikely to be Yes voters. Party cannon fodder who hate the SNP and willing to risk jail for it, are not about to vote Yes if you ask me.

The opportunity to manipulate the results demands that public perception be conditioned to expect a close vote or see No as the favourite or leading in the polls. Had polls shown a consistent Yes lead or be odds-on favourite, it becomes far more difficult to interfere and get away with it.

[tartandon]

We really do need a few pools to show a Yes lead before the big day.

I think there are some undecideds who will just vote for whatever side they perceive to be 'winning'

[hannibal smith]

when is the next poll due out?

[Armchair Bob]

TNS. 5pm Tuesday.

Then a few on Wednesday.

All your polling info needs here:

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

[perthTam]

I assume you cannot release a poll during the actual voting times - when is the publishing deadline of a poll before the actual vote?