Tonight's Ashcroft Data

[Cove_Sheep]

SLAB must be close to looking for the nuclear option.

SNP 1% behind Jim Murphy (who took 50.8% of the vote in 2010)

SNP 6% ahead in Gordon Brown's patch

SNP 5% ahead in Charles Kennedy's patch

SNP TIED with the Tories in Mundell's patch

SNP 13% ahead in Darling's patch

SNP 14% ahead in West Aberdeenshire

SNP 11% ahead in Ayr

SNP 4% ahead in Dumfries

[Clyde1998]

Wow. We could win anywhere...

[Clyde1998]

Aberdeenshire West: SNP 39%, Con 25%, Lib 20%, Lab 10%, Ukip 3%, Grn 2%
Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: SNP 42%, Lab 31%, Con 21%, Ukip 3%, Lib 2%, Grn <1%
Dumfries, Clydesdale: SNP 34%, Con 34%, Lab 18%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Grn 2%
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 34%, Con 30%, Lab 28%, Ukip 4%, Lib 2%, Grn 2%
East Renfrewshire: Lab 34%, SNP 33%, Con 26%, Grn 3%, Lib 2%, Ukip 1%
Edinburgh South West: SNP 40%, Lab 27%, Con 19%, Grn 7%, Lib 4%, Ukip 2%
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 45%, Lab 39%, Con 7%, Lib 3%, Ukip 3%, Grn 3%
Ross, Skye, Lochaber: SNP 40%, Lib 35%, Lab 9%, Con 8%, Grn 5%, Ukip 3%

[Holty]

If the SNP take the D&G and Dumfriesshire seats I will be utterly amazed. As a junior SNP member in the mid to late 90's I attended the Annan Branch meetings, 5 was a good turnout, me plus 4 ageing activists no longer with us who had given their all for independence their whole life's. I will raise a glass to them if we win either one of those seats.

[Clyde1998]

Here's a map of the polls so far:

Cyan shows a tie.

Edited March 4, 2015 by Clyde1998

[King Of Paisley]

This is almost too good to be true.

If we win Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath I will be utterly astonished, but delirious at the same time.

[Cove_Sheep]

Aberdeenshire West: SNP 39%, Con 25%, Lib 20%, Lab 10%, Ukip 3%, Grn 2%

Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: SNP 42%, Lab 31%, Con 21%, Ukip 3%, Lib 2%, Grn <1%

Dumfries, Clydesdale: SNP 34%, Con 34%, Lab 18%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Grn 2%

Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 34%, Con 30%, Lab 28%, Ukip 4%, Lib 2%, Grn 2%

East Renfrewshire: Lab 34%, SNP 33%, Con 26%, Grn 3%, Lib 2%, Ukip 1%

Edinburgh South West: SNP 40%, Lab 27%, Con 19%, Grn 7%, Lib 4%, Ukip 2%

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 45%, Lab 39%, Con 7%, Lib 3%, Ukip 3%, Grn 3%

Ross, Skye, Lochaber: SNP 40%, Lib 35%, Lab 9%, Con 8%, Grn 5%, Ukip 3%

2010:

Aberdeenshire West: Lib 38.4%, Con 30.3%, SNP 15.7%, Lab 13.6%, BNP 1.1%, UKIP 0.9%

Ayr: Lab 47.1%, Con 25.5%, SNP 18.0%, Lib 9.3%

Dumfries, Clydesdale: Con 38.0%, Lab 28.9%, Lib 19.8%, SNP 10.8%, UKIP 1.4%, Grn 1.1%

D&G: Lab 45.9%, Con 31.6%, SNP 12.3%, Lib 8.8%, UKIP 1.3%

East Ren: Lab 50.8%, Con 30.4%, Lib 9.2%, SNP 8.9%, UKIP 0.7%

Edinburgh SW: Lab 42.8%, Con 24.3%, Lib 18.0%, SNP 12.2%, GRN 1.9%, SSP 0.7%, Com 0.1%

Kirkcaldy: Lab 64.5%, SNP 14.3%, Lib 9.3%, Con 9.3%, UKIP 1.7%, IND 0.4%, IND 0.4%, IND 0.1%

Ross, Skye: Lib 52.6%, Lab 15.1%, SNP 15.1%, Con 12.2%, GRN 2.2%, UKIP 1.9%, IND 0.8%

[Toepoke]

It'd be interesting to see what the swings from 2010 in these seats have been...

Edit...Damn you Cove

...The answer is pretty big, probably unprecedented!

Edited March 4, 2015 by Toepoke

[fringo]

2010:

Aberdeenshire West: Lib 38.4%, Con 30.3%, SNP 15.7%, Lab 13.6%, BNP 1.1%, UKIP 0.9%

Ayr: Lab 47.1%, Con 25.5%, SNP 18.0%, Lib 9.3%

Dumfries, Clydesdale: Con 38.0%, Lab 28.9%, Lib 19.8%, SNP 10.8%, UKIP 1.4%, Grn 1.1%

D&G: Lab 45.9%, Con 31.6%, SNP 12.3%, Lib 8.8%, UKIP 1.3%

East Ren: Lab 50.8%, Con 30.4%, Lib 9.2%, SNP 8.9%, UKIP 0.7%

Edinburgh SW: Lab 42.8%, Con 24.3%, Lib 18.0%, SNP 12.2%, GRN 1.9%, SSP 0.7%, Com 0.1%

Kirkcaldy: Lab 64.5%, SNP 14.3%, Lib 9.3%, Con 9.3%, UKIP 1.7%, IND 0.4%, IND 0.4%, IND 0.1%

Ross, Skye: Lib 52.6%, Lab 15.1%, SNP 15.1%, Con 12.2%, GRN 2.2%, UKIP 1.9%, IND 0.8%

That's an amazing comparison and change in just 5 years !

[Clyde1998]

Aberdeenshire West: Lib to SNP - 20.5%
Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: Lab to SNP - 20.0%
Dumfries, Clydesdale: Con to SNP - 13.5%
Dumfries & Galloway: Lab to SNP - 20.0%
East Renfrewshire: Lab to SNP - 20.5%
Edinburgh South West: Lab to SNP - 22.0%
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: Lab to SNP - 28.5%
Ross, Skye, Lochaber: Lib to SNP - 21.5%

[Toepoke]

Aberdeenshire West: Lib to SNP - 20.5%

Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: Lab to SNP - 20.0%

Dumfries, Clydesdale: Con to SNP - 13.5%

Dumfries & Galloway: Lab to SNP - 20.0%

East Renfrewshire: Lab to SNP - 20.5%

Edinburgh South West: Lab to SNP - 22.0%

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: Lab to SNP - 28.5%

Ross, Skye, Lochaber: Lib to SNP - 21.5%

Are the swings not bigger than that?

Maybe other swingometers I've seen are worked out differently...

[Clyde1998]

Are the swings not bigger than that?

Maybe other swingometers I've seen are worked out differently...

I just took the numbers off of this sheet: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lab-Scottish-constituencies-March-2015-LAM124A.pdf

I assume they're correct - I should point out though that swings over 20% in a general election are quite rare, and over 25% is almost unheard of (unless there was a by-election before the general election).

[Toepoke]

Sorry to put a dampener on things but can I point out at this stage before the 2011 Holyrood election Labour were 15% ahead of the SNP...

[Clyde1998]

Sorry to put a dampener on things but can I point out at this stage before the 2011 Holyrood election Labour were 15% ahead of the SNP...

So... you're saying we could get all 59 seats in that time?

Labour's 2011 campaign was terrible - hopefully Sturgeon won't hide in a Subway...

[aaid]

Sorry to put a dampener on things but can I point out at this stage before the 2011 Holyrood election Labour were 15% ahead of the SNP...

Don't think that's true. I'm sure I saw a graphic a couple of weeks ago which showed that it was the same time before the 2011 HR election that the SNP drew level with Labour. I'm sure Peter Murrell tweeted it.

This gap isn't closing, if anything it's getting wider.

Got it.

http://twitter.com/PeterMurrell/status/568165401856753664

Edited March 4, 2015 by aaid

[Armchair Bob]

Right. I am off to shovel money towards Calum Kerr in Berwickshire and Emma Harper in Dumfries. I would love for one of the border seats to go yellow, hardly seems possible. Must grasp the chance while it is there.

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-elect-a-real-borders-mp-calum-kerr

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/snp-dumfriesshire-clydesdale-tweeddale-2015

[Toepoke]

Don't think that's true. I'm sure I saw a graphic a couple of weeks ago which showed that it was the same time before the 2011 HR election that the SNP drew level with Labour. I'm sure Peter Murrell tweeted it.

This gap isn't closing, if anything it's getting wider.

Got it.

http://twitter.com/PeterMurrell/status/568165401856753664

Have to admit I ripped that stat from Wikipedia so its veracity can't be guaranteed....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011#Opinion_polls

Edited March 4, 2015 by Toepoke

[Auld_Reekie]

Yep. The polling numbers are either too good to be true or unsustainable. Unbelievable.

[AberdeenAngus]

Yep. The polling numbers are either too good to be true or unsustainable. Unbelievable.

Would there not be a chance they could get even better as people see the polls and want to vote for the winning side?

[perthTam]

Yep. The polling numbers are either too good to be true or unsustainable. Unbelievable.

Waiting for "more accurate" polls nearer the time showing SLAB "narrowing" the gap to build the momentum their way. Just don't believe these figures yet.

[redstevie007]

Can we just all calm doon. Remember what the polls told us on 17th September last year....?

[Scunnered]

Would there not be a chance they could get even better as people see the polls and want to vote for the winning side?

If there are people who shape their vote as such... They should be murdered. Violently. I'm talking ice Picks!

[Auld_Reekie]

Would there not be a chance they could get even better as people see the polls and want to vote for the winning side?

Nut. Can't see it. I refuse to believe they are actually as good as being made out. Numbers are eye-watering. Im more concerned about people saying they'll vote SNP but are actually embarrassed to say they're going to vote Labour.

[killiefaetheferry]

I can't help but return to thinking about No voters, and I have discussed this with a few, who fell victim to Project Fear and just couldn't bring themselves to take the risk/embrace the change etc, and who were well aware of what was going on media-wise. These people were actually far more impressed by Yes/SNP, and now that the Indyref has gone they are moving from being a 'non-voter' to vote SNP, or switching from Labour.

Just a small snapshot but makes sense to me.

[Auld_Reekie]

Waiting for "more accurate" polls nearer the time showing SLAB "narrowing" the gap to build the momentum their way. Just don't believe these figures yet.

Yep. And Labour will narrow this gap. Just like the referendum, expect a panic button to be hit at some point that unleashes merry hell on the SNP.