The 55

[Armchair Bob]

Jie Bie - depressing if our best bet for independence is to appeal to 'middle Scotland's selfishness. But it is hard to fault your analysis.

[Caledonian Craig]

I know many feared loss of the NHS and that is just plain daft. The blueprint is there and in place for such a system to be replicated - I mean it is not as if the NHS is copyrighted in any way.

Pensions were another fear (or loss of them). Well if that refers to state pensions that was never going to happen either but if that refers to work pensions well staying in the UK isn't safeguarding them as many have lost their work pensions in recent years.

The currency question was a thorn in the side. Salmond was adamant they could and would keep the pound but the Better Together campaign said that wouldn't happen and the fear they put out scared people into a no vote. We need to work on that one - perhaps a new currency say Scottish pound but using the same decimalisation.

[Orraloon]

I think Scotland is very pro Europe is it not?

I don't think we know that for sure.

[exile]

One thing that surprises me is that no push was made for a revote in say five years should the vote be as close as it was. I meann 55-45 would produce a hung parliament and re-election so SNP should have pushed for such a clause to be included. Especially, now if you consider 12.5% never voted.

If you look at the map of Scotland by region, the vast majority would be No on first past the post. On the BBC's colour scheme, almost everything was red.

This in fact gives the impression it was a 'decisive' result. It was decisive of course - imagine winning 55-45 - but not as decisive as the map showing 'almost everywhere voted No' would suggest

I think many on the unionist side who want to put this issue to bed would like to think that one vote settles the matter for a generation or indefinitely. However, even if politicians say it's done for a political generation, how can the politicians simply ignore a restless population of 45%?

[Jie Bie]

Jie Bie - depressing if our best bet for independence is to appeal to 'middle Scotland's selfishness. But it is hard to fault your analysis.

As someone who grew up under the shadow of Ravenscraig and despises NuLsbour nobody finds it more depressing than me. I talked to quite a lot of No voters yesterday and guaranteeing their standard of living won't drop one iota is the only way to win some of them over.

The SNP's best bet IMO is to reposition itself as a party campaigning for home rule for Scotland. I think that would resonate with a lot of people but the worry is that it could split the party.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Jie Bie

[killie97]

If we are to move forward we need to know the nature of our defeat. A poll needs to be commissioned to find out why people voted no. We need to know how many are comfortable being British, and how many wanted indy but were scared out of it, or who were just sceptical of the yes campaign leadership. Let's face it, if a majority of the population identify as British we are probably fucked. But I don't think there is that majority there.

We need to know what events need to occur in order for the scales to fall from some peoples eyes. For my wife it was banks threatening to leave and the protection of the British army that became the justification in the end, even though she was always going to vote no anyway (she self identifies as British). When Standard Life moves to London anyway or we are enrolled in another pointless war then that is when conversions can take place.

Some interesting figures here - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/scotland-voted/ - even though a small poll.

[Hertsscot]

"I think many on the unionist side who want to put this issue to bed would like to think that one vote settles the matter for a generation or indefinitely."

Absolutely right they would. That's why after the depression and hurt of yesterday we must keep a cool head, recognise that 45% want change and build upon it. The issue only goes away if we allow it to go away.

[Caledonian Craig]

If you look at the map of Scotland by region, the vast majority would be No on first past the post. On the BBC's colour scheme, almost everything was red.

This in fact gives the impression it was a 'decisive' result. It was decisive of course - imagine winning 55-45 - but not as decisive as the map showing 'almost everywhere voted No' would suggest

I think many on the unionist side who want to put this issue to bed would like to think that one vote settles the matter for a generation or indefinitely. However, even if politicians say it's done for a political generation, how can the politicians simply ignore a restless population of 45%?

Yes 45% is almost half of the population and Scotland's biggest city (Glasgow)and one of the other bigger towns (Dundee) voted for Independence. I think such a sheer size of the population means this question won't go away. It is more a question of how long can Westminster put off another referendum? If we get plethoras of more opinion polls in coming months and years with a swell in support coupled with unrest at Westminster policies I think the situation will have to be revisited some time in the not too distant future.

[DonnyTJS]

One thing that surprises me is that no push was made for a revote in say five years should the vote be as close as it was. I meann 55-45 would produce a hung parliament and re-election so SNP should have pushed for such a clause to be included. Especially, now if you consider 12.5% never voted.

A non-starter. It would have to work both ways - which, apart from meaning a rUK-referendum if Scotland wanted to 'reunite' in five years, would also make the independence negotiations even more problematic - the British establishment would have an incentive for iScotland's short-term failure.

The currency question was a thorn in the side. Salmond was adamant they could and would keep the pound but the Better Together campaign said that wouldn't happen and the fear they put out scared people into a no vote. We need to work on that one - perhaps a new currency say Scottish pound but using the same decimalisation.

As opposed to reverting to pounds, shillings and pence? I don't know of a modern currency that isn't decimalized. But the way you factor the units isn't the point...

The currency was always a major weakness in the Yes argument, not helped by the initial policy of joining the Euro and the subsequent backtracking. A Scottish currency over which a Scottish central bank & Holyrood had total control of the fiscal and monetary tools would have been the most honest, and best, route, imho. It probably wouldn't have been a winner this time, but maybe next time - at least it smacks of certainty, which this campaign lacked on the currency issue.

I think many on the unionist side who want to put this issue to bed would like to think that one vote settles the matter for a generation or indefinitely. However, even if politicians say it's done for a political generation, how can the politicians simply ignore a restless population of 45%?

Since Thursday, further devolution will be the only game in town for a while. It has massive UK-wide constitutional implications and unfortunately it's in the hands of politicians who are tied to too many partisan issues to deal with it in a sensible, objective fashion.

I've posted often enough in the past that the result of a No would not be a clawing back of devolved powers but some form of appeasement which will end up pleasing nobody. Our constitution has evolved to frame the governance of a unitary state - the 1998 Scotland Act was bolted on and is marked by constitutional anomalies. Further tinkering, especially - as it must - directly affecting the rest of the UK will render it utterly obsolete.

Which means a written constitution, which requires an apolitical constitutional commission. And I don't think those in power have the guts to go down that route. A written constitution would also make the calling of any further referendum much harder, btw. Working towards a more gradualist UK dissolution sounds a bit pie in the sky, but it also sounds better than what I can currently see as the alternatives.

Edited September 20, 2014 by DonnyTJS

[snoopyhill]

We have a general election next year which will lead to a hung parliament at Westminster, Scottish election in 2016, EU Referendum in 2017 I believe we could have another Independence referendum in 2018 if SNP can increase their vote at the expense of Scottish Labour it gives us another mandate. Thursday was just the beginning.

[Caledonian Craig]

Good post Donny. The decimalisation issue I am no expert on at all but felt Salmond won back some votes when (during one of the televised debates) he argued that why would the rest of the UK refuse them to use the pound as it would mean all debts would be written off which flummoxed Darling. Apart from that good post Donny.

[Caledonian Craig]

I am certain the Independence question won't go away after such a large proportion voted for it. The cork is now out of the bottle so to speak. It is all about how long Westminster can put off the next referendum. In Quebec I do believe it was an eight year wait.

[GrantP]

Genuinely think that's it for at least a generation or possibly more. We can have as many referendums as we like but at the end of the day, nearly 2 million people said no. There is no demand for another one just because the result wasn't what we wanted.

I appreciate an optimist would point to the 45% gained despite an onslaught of political and media pressure. But I fear that's going to be our high water mark for a long time to come.

[Pool Q]

Good post Donny. Although disappointed by the result, as an advocate of independence from the UK, I'm reasonably sanguine about it. In my view the direction of travel is clear, Scotland is moving away from the Union, which is itself slowly falling apart anyway. Salmond was right to say that this was a once in a generation chance, we can't go through this every few years, but another 10-15 years of Tory and New Labour rule will make the position of Scotland in the UK untenable. Barnett will be targeted by the Tory Right (desperate to out UKIP UKIP), New Labour will have to play along to placate the Shires and SE. When the reality of that dawns on Scotland the Unionist parties will suffer a severe backlash. As it happens, I think the Unionist party leaders have put in place a constitutional ticking bomb in their pledge for further, fast-tracked powers for Scotland. They are not deliverable in the timescale that Brown set out (Cameron shot that fox yesterday morning, as he clearly always intended to) while no Labour leader can agree to English votes for English laws. A rebalancing on the Union is long overdue, something needs to be done about the WLQ/English question. But a two tier parliament, with a UK Labour government and PM, and an English Tory government (80% of the UK) and English Tory FM? Good luck with that. It was interesting to hear Peter Hain on the radio yesterday reveal the mindset of New Labour re devolution - 'There is no need for a devolved English parliament as England already has a parliament, Westminster' (I paraphrase slightly). The current crop of politicians are clearly not up to working out a solution to a problem that has defeated far greater minds than theirs since Gladstone at least. A convention is a good idea, but how does that fit in with the pledge made to the people of Scotland last week? It was interesting to see Tam Belgrano (file under 'I thought he was deid') on TV last night railing against all and sundry, and in particular the Labour leadership and its' complete failure to address the WLQ. His solution to save the Union? Do away with devolution. Anything less will, ultimately, mean the end of the UK as a state. He's right.

In the meantime the SNP needs to address the currency issue which it simply never fully answered during the campaign, despite what most in the Yes camp told themselves. The currency union with rUK was a half-baked idea, if it is still SNP policy in a few years time I'd be very surprised and disappointed.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Pool Q

[TartanJon]

Tartanjon was right...that fukking pool.

I could see that result coming from 7.30am

[Toepoke]

In Quebec I do believe it was an eight year wait.

Was 15 I think...

[Armchair Bob]

Well CC I don't think we should have another referendum too soon - apart from the fact that folk would be scunnered to go through this again in a couple of years, let natural wastage deal with the unions most loyal supporters.

[Caledonian Craig]

Genuinely think that's it for at least a generation or possibly more. We can have as many referendums as we like but at the end of the day, nearly 2 million people said no. There is no demand for another one just because the result wasn't what we wanted.

I appreciate an optimist would point to the 45% gained despite an onslaught of political and media pressure. But I fear that's going to be our high water mark for a long time to come.

Nonsense. Look at the figures and I don't see the 45% turning back to the union. On the other hand watching TV reports yesterday many no voters were undecided until the last minute but opted for the safe option hoping for much from Westminster's pledges. Once they fail to deliver many of the no voters will be converts. Remember almost half of the population of Scotland voted for Independence - that is too loud a shout to be forever stifled.

[Caledonian Craig]

Well CC I don't think we should have another referendum too soon - apart from the fact that folk would be scunnered to go through this again in a couple of years, let natural wastage deal with the unions most loyal supporters.

No I am not saying a couple of years by any means. Perhaps in the next five to ten years. After all 1.6 million is a strong call for a future referendum unlike what that petrified prawn Menzies Campbell was saying last night claiming the question possibly should never arise again. Whit? Almost half the population call for Independence and he feels the question has been answered forever? What a fud.

[DonnyTJS]

The current crop of politicians are clearly not up to working out a solution to a problem that has defeated far greater minds than theirs since Gladstone at least. A convention is a good idea, but how does that fit in with the pledge made to the people of Scotland last week?

It doesn't. Panicking politicians let loose without constitutionally literate handlers ... just what a mature democracy with deep-seated problems fücking needs. Although constitutionally illiterate leaders is what we've had since at least Blair.

It was interesting to see Tam Belgrano (file under 'I thought he was deid') on TV last night railing against all and sundry, and in particular the Labour leadership and its' complete failure to address the WLQ. His solution to save the Union? Do away with devolution. Anything less will, ultimately, mean the end of the UK as a state. He's right.

Yes, he is right. And not living in the real world. The union is clearly doomed, what we need are leaders with the maturity to see it and to work towards its amicable and mutally beneficial dissolution. I just can't see where that's coming from.

In the meantime the SNP needs to address the currency issue which it simply never fully answered during the campaign, despite what most in the Yes camp told themselves. The currency union with rUK was a half-baked idea, if it is still SNP policy in a few years time I'd be very surprised and disappointed.

Absolutely.

[Pool Q]

Donny your last post gave me a flashback to the Calmac days. Reading it was a bit like having your homework marked.

[DonnyTJS]

Sorry.

[exile]

Since Thursday, further devolution will be the only game in town for a while.

We shall see.

If THE VOW is broken, then who's to say Scottish Govt could not hold - or threaten to hold - another referendum?

(just a quickie one, like a snap by-election...)

Edited September 20, 2014 by exile

[thplinth]

Donny your last post gave me a flashback to the Calmac days. Reading it was a bit like having your homework marked.

Let the conspiracies begin...

[Pool Q]

Let the conspiracies begin...

you don't mean?.........