iainmac1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Are we sure that Murphy is standing for WM? He won't say for definete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I've just done the whole country: LAB - 42 SNP - 14 CON - 2 LIB - 1 Two seats - the comeback is on . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I live in Newton Mearns. Everyone I know thinks Murphy is a slimy c**t. I'm in Mearns too . During the referendum campaign I found that amongst young voters here there is a noticeably much greater pro-independence and pro-SNP stance than there is amongst the older generation who are strongly anti-independence and who hate the SNP. The referendum might have pushed a few open minded Labour voters over to the SNP after seeing Murphy's lies and dirty tricks in action which would be great. Sadly, we have a large number of selfish middle class voters in our town (note to non residents - there are though, plenty of us in Mearns who are working class and live modestly) that love him and are always out in droves to vote for him. The South side in particular which is the wealthiest part of town, just worship him. i dont know, i think the Tories will do well there, a few Labour going to snp, Tories rejuvenated thanx to the Liebour party at the Ref... There was a massive turnout in East Ren,,. 92% I think at REF... these guys are up for it.. Question for SNP .. should they vote Tory to get rid of Jim Smurfy.... a tory or Smurphy have no real policy differences, except one says he isnt a unionist, but he is, the others admit they are unionist... although looking at last time 77% turnout... SNP are miles behind, even in these exciting times... where will the lib vote go, they beat snp last time.... for the long term good, i for one would not be disappointed to see the Tories( blue) win here... Jim Murphy Labour 25,987 50.8 +6.9 Richard Cook Conservative 15,567 30.4 +0.5 Gordon MacDonald Liberal Democrat 4,720 9.2 -9.0 Gordon ArcherScottish National Party 4,535 8.9 +2.0 Donald MackayUK Independence Party 372 0.7 +0.7 Majority 10,420 20.4 Turnout 51,181 77.3 +5. That's some very interesting and good points you make there Stocky but I'm still convinced Frankenstein will retain the seat. The local press such as the Barrhead News and the Eastwood Extra are an integral part of Murphy's propaganda machine. Over the years when they have reported on local Labour councillor Mr X giving his brother in law a council contract or Labour councillor Mr Y being found loitering in a public park at 2 AM - Uncle Jim has remained untouchable despite his obscene expenses claims, being out of the country frequently and rumours of one or two questionable land deals he may have been involved in (nothing proven unfortunately). It's because he's one of Labours most high profile right wingers that the local Tory minded folk are comfortable voting for him. It's yet to be confirmed if they'll stand or not, but if UKIP put up a candidate this could be one of the very few areas in Scotland where they could win a few votes and that could be damaging for the Tories. UKIP would obviously come nowhere near winning the seat though. The Tories had their best chance in 2010 but Dick Cook, the candidate they put up, was a complete fool who deservedly got into trouble for his Victorian era views on gay people and single mothers if I remember correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The first map put up will be more like reality people will bottle and vote tactically for labour or just not bother affecting it too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I believe the SNP have a decent candidate, who have the Blue Tories put up this time....? This seat s winnable for the Tories , a good candidate and targeting the seat.. although they need feet on the ground, which they dont have.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 here is a wee game i am playing. take 1 third of Labour votes off Labour and put them on SNP..( 37% in Ref) and see what u come out with. here is Kilmarnock and Louden 2010 Cathy Jamieson Labour 24,460 52.5 +5.3George Leslie Scottish National Party 12,082 26.0 -1.7Janette McAlpine Tory 6,592 14.2 +2.8Sebastian Tombs Liberal Democrat 3,419 7.3 -3. so third off labour 8153 =16 307 add third onto snp =20235 ok say 25% 6115 labour = 18345 add 25% onto snp = 18197....... Very Interesting, if 1 in 4 ex labour voters vote SNP........... Where will the Lib vote go... Ok here cannae really go much lower... but say the greens stand here this could maybe cost SNP the seat.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Look how close this would be, argyll and Bute, SNP came 4rth a wee drop in the Lib vote and they could come from 4th to win.... take 2600 off Labour add to SNP........ Alan Reid Liberal Democrat 14,292 31.6 -4.9Gary Mulvaney Conservative 10,861 24.0 +0.5David Graham Labour 10,274 22.7 +0.3Michael Mackenzie Scottish National Party 8,563 18.9 +3.4Elaine Morrison Green 789 1.7 +1.7 George Doyle Independent 272 0.6 +0.6John Black Scottish Jacobite Party [The] 156 0.3 +0.3Majority 3,431 7.6Turnout 45,207 67.3 +3.0 Ok I know its just a wee game.. but interesting.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Look how close this would be, argyll and Bute, SNP came 4rth a wee drop in the Lib vote and they could come from 4th to win.... take 2600 off Labour add to SNP........ Alan Reid Liberal Democrat 14,292 31.6 -4.9 Gary Mulvaney Conservative 10,861 24.0 +0.5 David Graham Labour 10,274 22.7 +0.3 Michael Mackenzie Scottish National Party 8,563 18.9 +3.4 Elaine Morrison Green 789 1.7 +1.7 George Doyle Independent 272 0.6 +0.6 John Black Scottish Jacobite Party [The] 156 0.3 +0.3 Majority 3,431 7.6 Turnout 45,207 67.3 +3.0 Ok I know its just a wee game.. but interesting.... Those were different figures from my projection - I've corrected them now. Remains an SNP gain. Projection - SNP Gain SNP - 15,902 Lab - 10,614 Con - 9,615 Lib - 7,278 Grn - 2,189 UKIP - 1,232 Others - 564 Based on an estimated turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No chance in hell of the Tories winning Murphy's seat. They had a good chance in 2010 to unseat him but Murphy's vote went up instead. The yuppie crowd in Mearns, Clarkston, Giffnock and Busby love Murphy. He can do no wrong. He also has a loyal pensioner vote too. He'll be re-elected here no bother sadly. Also if UKIP stand a candidate here, that will split the Tory vote. One bright note is that the SNP vote did increase in 2005 and 2010. Hopefully that trend continues shortly. We should be looking at taking some Lib Dem votes. Sadly you are correct. Far too many labour for life folk in east ren. And posh Tory s too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Apparently, Ashcroft have polled in Gordon and Glasgow Central. Based on my projections: Gordon should show an SNP lead and Glasgow Central should show a narrow Labour lead over the SNP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bzzzz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It would be fantastic if murphy lost his seat, the man's a xunt and his party are a disgrace, surely people can't be SO stupid not to see this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perthTam Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It would be fantastic if murphy lost his seat, the man's a xunt and his party are a disgrace, surely people can't be SO stupid not to see this... "Demoted" to the Scottish Branch Office and now looking to being sidelined there by Gordon Brown according to another thread. Time to go back to Strathclyde Uni and finish your degree Jim! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/politics/poll-expert-claims-snp-are-set-to-win-45-seats-1.818597 We'll soon see if this is utter shÃte or not, and definitely not taking anything granted as we've seen what a little back bone we've had when up against the wall just last year. And now doubt if the inevitable does happen, "SNP ONLY win 21 seats" from BBC North British Labour regional, yes REGIONAL dept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannannan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It would be fantastic if murphy lost his seat, the man's a xunt and his party are a disgrace, surely people can't be SO stupid not to see this... they are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Murphy... No words Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Would keep an eye on West Dunbartonshire and Paisley seats. Both areas voted Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 (edited) Why is it 'Dumbarton', but then 'Dunbartonshire'? I've never been able to get to the bottom of that. Edited February 1, 2015 by Charlie Endell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Why is it 'Dumbarton', but then 'Dunbartonshire'? I've never been able to get to the bottom of that. Seems to be a mistranslation of the Gaelic name. http://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/usfeatures/areas/dunbartonshire.html Dunbartonshire was one of the 34 traditional counties into which Scotland was divided for administrative purposes. Dumbarton was the county town, and originally the name of the county was Dumbartonshire. For centuries "Dunbartonshire" and "Dumbartonshire" were used virtually interchangeably, but "Dunbartonshire" had become accepted as the definitive spelling by the early 1900s. This seems to have been a reflection of the "correct" root of the name of Dumbarton, which at some time in the past was wrongly anglicised from the Gaelic Dùn Breatainn or "Fort of the Britons". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems to be a mistranslation of the Gaelic name. http://www.undiscoveredscotland.co.uk/usfeatures/areas/dunbartonshire.html Dunbartonshire was one of the 34 traditional counties into which Scotland was divided for administrative purposes. Dumbarton was the county town, and originally the name of the county was Dumbartonshire. For centuries "Dunbartonshire" and "Dumbartonshire" were used virtually interchangeably, but "Dunbartonshire" had become accepted as the definitive spelling by the early 1900s. This seems to have been a reflection of the "correct" root of the name of Dumbarton, which at some time in the past was wrongly anglicised from the Gaelic Dùn Breatainn or "Fort of the Britons". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 @LordAshcroft: Pls retweet that my Scottish individual constituency poll will be released at 11am Wed at http://lordashcroftpolls.comRegister there to receive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Funnily enough, in Gaelic you'll change an 'n' to an 'm' before p, b, f or m because it's easier to say. However, because in "Dun Bhreatainn" the B has an "h" after it to indicate possession, i.e. fort of the Britons, it stays as an 'n'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 @LordAshcroft: Pls retweet that my Scottish individual constituency poll will be released at 11am Wed at http://lordashcroftpolls.comRegister there to receive snp up 1% across the UK. Thats c. 300,000 votes going on 2010 .(45m registered, 66% turnout) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Funnily enough, in Gaelic you'll change an 'n' to an 'm' before p, b, f or m because it's easier to say. However, because in "Dun Bhreatainn" the B has an "h" after it to indicate possession, i.e. fort of the Britons, it stays as an 'n'.Cheers Adam. The etymology of place names is pretty interesting - to me anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ahead of the consituency polls - the SNP have opened up a record [for YouGov polls] 21% lead over Labour in Scotland. SNP - 48% (+1%) Lab - 27% (N/C) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Beat me to the punch, Clyde. Seen Smithson tweeting it earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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