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2016 Election Projection


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I know it's early and everything could change. Also the regional samples are small and could be subject to huge variances.

Based on the Survation data from 16th Sep- pages 20 & 23

Constituency (Seats from http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood):

  • SNP - 41.7% (45 seats)
  • LAB - 31.1% (23 seats)
  • CON - 14.9% (3 seats)
  • LIB - 5.9% (2 seats)
  • UKIP - 3.5%
  • GRN - 2.3%
  • Others - 0.6%

Regional (Seats worked out by me using regional data):

H = Highlands; S = South, C = Central, M = Mid & Fife, G = Glasgow, W = West, L = Lothian, N = North East

(Example = 4H means 4 seats won via the Highland List)

  • SNP - 37.2% (27 seats - 4H, 3S, 4C, 2M, 3G, 3W, 3L, 5N)
  • LAB - 26.4% (17 seats - 1H, 2S, 2C, 3M, 2G, 3W, 2L, 2N)
  • CON - 12.6% (8 seats - 1H, 1S, 1C, 1M, 1G, 1W, 1L)
  • LIB - 7.1% (2 seats - 1H, 1M)
  • GRN - 9.1% (2 seats - 1G, 1L)
  • UKIP - 6.8% (1 seat - 1S)
  • Others - 0.8%

Total:

Compared to 2011 Election

  • SNP - 72 (+3 on 2011)
  • LAB - 40 (+3)
  • CON - 10 (-5)
  • LIB - 4 (-1)
  • GRN - 2 (+0)
  • UKIP - 1 (+1)
  • IND - 0 (-1)

Early Projection: SNP Majority

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I hope the 3 main Westminster parties are wiped from the political landscape north of the border.

I know it's not going to happen, but just dream for a second that we had an SNP majority with the second party in Scotland being the Greens led by Patrick Harvie. See that wee smile that just crept across your face, remember that feeling because that shows that there is still hope for our nation.

Keep the faith, continue the fight!!

Edited by tartandon
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I forgot to link the Survation data: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Scottish-Attitudes-Poll-Results.pdf

I hope that's wrong. I want to see Greens take more of labours seats

The Greens are nowhere near gaining an extra Glasgow (list) seat unfortunately.

Glasgow:

  1. SNP - 36.6% (1)
  2. LAB - 25.6% (1)
  3. SNP - 18.3% (2)
  4. LAB - 12.8% (2)
  5. GRN - 12.4% (1)
  6. SNP - 12.2% (3)
  7. CON - 10.5% (1)
  8. SNP - 9.2%
  9. LAB - 8.5%
  10. SNP - 7.3%
  11. LIB - 7.1%
  12. LAB - 6.4%
  13. GRN - 6.2%
  14. SNP - 6.1%
  15. UKIP - 6.0%
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That is by your numbers. I'm saying I hope you are wrong come the next election and labour fail

Technically, they're Survation's numbers and my calculations based on them. ;)

I hope Labour fail as well. As I said "I know it's early and everything could change" - The Greens could run a campaign mentioning the lack of kept promises by Labour after the referendum (assuming they're not kept).

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