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rosscarnie

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I just read this on Reddit, is it true?

"Due to the quirks of the FIFA rating system that Scotland - even if they beat Qatar - will go down into the next lower level pot for the next FIFA competition draw, whereas if they didn't even play Qatar in this friendly then they would remain in a pot higher?

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From The Herald.

Qatar match could upset Scotland's World Cup ambitions

Mark Walker

Saturday 11 April 2015

Scottish Football Association chiefs may have scored a spectacular World Cup own goal by agreeing to play Qatar in a friendly.

Scotland will face the Gulf nation at Easter Road in June before they face Ireland in a crucial Euro 2016 encounter in Dublin.

But by facing Qatar, Scotland may have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to the World Cup 2018 qualifying draw in Russia in July.

Scotland are currently on the brink of securing the last place in Pot Two of seeds, which would be a huge boost for Gordon Strachan's side.

However, because of the complicated way FIFA's World Rankings work, by agreeing to face Qatar - a nation currently ranked 99th by world football's governing body, even a win against the oil-rich country could work against Scotland when it comes to Rankings points because of both their lowly position and being a member of the Asian Football Confederation, which isn't ranked as highly as UEFA nations.

And it would mean Scotland sliding into Pot Three for the July 25 draw, which will be held in Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg.

If Scotland had decided not to take the fixture against Qatar - a country where an SFA delegation of chief executive Stewart Regan, president Campbell Ogilvie and vice-president Rod Petrie visited on a fact-finding mission in February - they would have known that a victory over Ireland in the Aviva Stadium would have guaranteed them a Pot Two place.

The rankings are based on the last four years' results, with results in the past 12 months counting for more than those in the preceding years and points are averaged out according to the number of matches played in a year.

It would mean that even a win over Qatar would affect Scotland's average points in the Rankings because of the relatively low points a win would collect. A draw or defeat to the World Cup 2022 hosts in Edinburgh would end all hopes of that Pot Two place.

Respected football statistical prediction site We Global Football summed up the SFA's decision to play the friendly against Qatar by commenting: "While Scotland has been doing OK in qualifying, they've completely screwed the pooch when it comes to scheduling.

"Arranging a friendly with Qatar will only hurt them further. They had a chance to get into Pot 2, but they've failed to do the things necessary to get there. Even still, if they win at Ireland and didn't play Qatar, they should have been able to get in."

FIFA will use their Rankings for July 2015 to decide seeds. Pots will be split into nine teams per pot, apart for smaller pots near the bottom end of the seeding.

The SFA declined to comment on the matter last night.

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Beat Qatar - which we will.

Beat Ireland - which I hope we will !

Equals pot 2.

Don't see the fuss. Yes its a money making friendly, but most of them are. England / USA / Brazil / Japan.

You are wrong. Beat both and we are relying on other results. If we didn't play Qatar then I believe that a Draw in Dublin would put us in the same position. A win would put us in pot 2.

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The other countries that are fighting for pot 2/3 are Denmark, Poland, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Iceland and Israel.

4 of them have friendly games in June. BiH may also play a friendly too. They were supposed to play Turkey but they never got as much money as they wanted so it got cancelled.

Demark v Montenegro - 8 June

Georgia v Ukraine (in Austria) - 9 June

Serbia v Azerbaijan (in Austria) - 7 June

Poland v Greece - 16 June (after the qualifier)

The qualifiers they have are:

Denmark v Serbia - 13 June

Ukraine v Luxembourg - 14 June

Poland v Georgia - 13 June

BiH v Israel - 12 June

Iceland v Czech Rep 12 June

It wont help much but it would be good if Qatar beat N Ireland on the 31st of May as they will be higher ranked when we play them so will get slightly more points if we beat them in June.

Edited by tartanpar
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Someone should be sacked for this, it's an absolute disgrace to hurt our chances of getting to the next WC! Who would be ultimately responsible? Regan?

My understanding is that Strachan is the one who gives the requirements of what type of game he wants to the international committee, and is the one that signs off on the game based on their findings presented to him (not to say that there is not a element of a bit of persuasion from upon high forced upon him......)

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My understanding is that Strachan is the one who gives the requirements of what type of game he wants to the international committee, and is the one that signs off on the game based on their findings presented to him (not to say that there is not a element of a bit of persuasion from upon high forced upon him......)

So Strachan says to his bosses that we need a game to warm up for Ireland, a team of similar ranking and Style. They come back with Qatar saying it was the closest they could find while they have a laugh behind his back at the big brown envelopes they all have.

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