Snp Strategy - 2015 General Election

[Haggis_trap]

I've never understood the Northern Isles. They say they don't want to be run by Edinburgh but are happy to be run from London.

A very high of % of non Scots have moved there from other parts of the UK (apparently).

Western Isles is still mainly native Scots and their vote was more typical of the overall result.

Edited September 28, 2014 by Haggis_trap

[hampden_loon2878]

Right so the solution is for yes minded people to move to the Northern isles :-)

A very high of % of non Scots have moved there from other parts of the UK (apparently).

Western Isles is still mainly native Scots and their vote was more typical of the overall result.

[King Of Paisley]

Clyde 1998 - that would be one of the biggest shifts in Scottish political history if that came off.

[Clyde1998]

Clyde 1998 - that would be one of the biggest shifts in Scottish political history if that came off.

It would be incredible. It could be larger if the SNP could gain a few Glasgow seats. Labour would be dead in the water then...

[ErsatzThistle]

I'm going to be a miserable here and say I don't really see any great breakthrough for the SNP next year.

Now don't get me wrong, I think the total amount votes for the SNP will go up a great deal, perhaps by 100,000 or maybe even 200,000, but probably not the amount of seats.

The Westminster voting system is an appalling anachronism in today's day and age. First-Past-the-Post is a terrible system that doesn't help the SNP one bit. There are also a few hundred thousand crucial voters who whilst being sympathetic to the SNP and independence, will inevitably "panic vote" for Labour, just to keep the Tories out. A media totally obsessed with Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems and UKIP won't help parties such as the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party of England & Wales.

Funnily enough I think the Tories will actually gain another one or two seats up here sadly, whilst Labour will probably hoover up a couple of Lib Dem constituencies. Certainly don't see UKIP getting anything up here though.

In the last UK General Election, the SNP got a total of 491,386 votes. Just for the record, the most amount of votes cast for the SNP at a UK General Election was 839,617 in the October 1974 election, so to get something around that would be pretty special.

It's important that the SNP don't get too cocky and are able to successfully defend the six seats they already have. Currently that's: Angus (Mike Weir), Banff and Buchan (Eilidh Whiteford), Dundee East (Stewart Hosie), Moray (Angus Robertson), Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus MacNeil), Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart).

Labour will try their best to snatch Dundee East and Na h-Eileanan an Iar from the SNP and the Tories will be throwing everything at winning Banff and Buchan.

Areas where I think the SNP could possibly win if they really campaign hard and have the right candidates are: Dundee West, Gordon, Falkirk, Inverclyde, Ochil and South Perthshire . Unfortunately even in these constituency's the sitting MP's have decent majorities. Mind you absolutely nothing is impossible if we just try hard enough !

We should be trying our best to get former Lib Dem voters to turn to the SNP. And we have all got to appeal to friends and family not to make the kneejerk reaction of voting Labour just because it looks like the Tories are going to win. Labour and Conservative are one and the same, the Lib Dems are spineless political whores. We've got to make it crystal clear to the electorate that Labour MPs have been given a chance time and time again to stand up for Scotland and have failed. It's time for something new and radical. Every vote counts and a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland

I will be more than glad to do my best Jim-Baxter-keepie-uppy-at-Wembley impression blindfolded on the roof of my house if the SNP gets' even a small breakthrough with let's say ten MP's mind you

Hope that a lot of these new SNP members can get themselves out there on the streets delivering leaflets, meeting the voters, convincing them to vote SNP and ditch North British Labour in the bog where they belong.

[Big Dod]

Anything other than Labour disintegrating in the next GE (which of course won't happen) will be portrayed by the media as a disaster for the SNP.

Don't underestimate the hate that is out there for the SNP.

This is true

UPDATE: 2015 Vote+Seats Projection:

http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/polling-analysis-latest-indication-snp-support

1. SNP - 38.6% (+18.7%) / 34 (+28)
2. LAB - 29.3% (-12.7%) / 20 (-21)
3. CON - 18.1% (+1.4%) / 3 (+2)
4. LIB - 5.2% (-13.7%) / 2 (-9)
5. GRN - 4.6% (+3.9%)
6. UKIP - 2.5% (+1.8%)
7. Other - 1.5% (-0.6%)

If this comes off I'll be hugely impressed and proud. As a side point there is no point voting fot the greens in a UK election. If the SNP could have those votes, plus others, we could give them our (second) votes in the Holyrood election. I know it's not all about SNP but we're fighting a fucked up system.

PS what is with the northern isles and these liberals? It's beyond pathetic

Edited September 29, 2014 by Big Dod

[neilser]

Decent article by Kevin McKenna yesterday on 'Scottish' Labour's slow fade into oblivion:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/27/labour-in-scotland-dying-does-anyone-care

[Hessen]

I think the SNP should stop all talk of a referendum for the time being. YES received 45% and maybe persuaded another 10% to swap sides, but as soon as more powers were allegedly on the table they swapped back again. This says to me that the undecideds' are happy with a more federal arrangement.

Looking further down the line, and given that the majority of Scots are federal minded and want to stay in Europe, if the UK does vote to leave the EU in 2017 (whilst Scotland votes to stay), then there would be a strong case for holding a new vote , with the questions being:

'Should Scotland be an independent country within the EU?'

or

'Should Scotland be in the UK and outside of the EU?'

I think that would be 50:50 from the start

Edited September 29, 2014 by Hessen

[thplinth]

UPDATE: 2015 Vote+Seats Projection:

http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/polling-analysis-latest-indication-snp-support

1. SNP - 38.6% (+18.7%) / 34 (+28)
2. LAB - 29.3% (-12.7%) / 20 (-21)
3. CON - 18.1% (+1.4%) / 3 (+2)
4. LIB - 5.2% (-13.7%) / 2 (-9)
5. GRN - 4.6% (+3.9%)
6. UKIP - 2.5% (+1.8%)
7. Other - 1.5% (-0.6%)

Wow. That would be massive.

[Auld_Reekie]

Theres no way it will happen. The SNP should be setting far more reasonable expectations IMO. As others have said, FPTP gives massive advantage to the established parties and like it or not, that's Labour and the Tories. Doubling the number of MPs would be a more reasonable goal but even then, Im not convinced the huge Yes vote will translate to SNP votes. Expectations are already of a Labour collapse but their vote ALWAYS holds up in Westminster elections especially if it's tight - and by next Spring, the polls will be tight or show a Tory lead. I expect Scotland to revert to type and try "to keep the Tories out".

Edited September 29, 2014 by Auld_Reekie

[saintlyscot]

The game has changed. Many traditional labour voters now see them as the red tories. The bond has been broken. I think we can eat into their heartlands. The timetable should be mired in the sickly treacle of Westminster at general election by then and we hold a strong trust and standing up for Scotland Card . I think 12 to 14 seats is attainable with focus and a lot of campaign work on the ground.

[thplinth]

Theres no way it will happen. The SNP should be setting far more reasonable expectations IMO. As others have said, FPTP gives massive advantage to the established parties and like it or not, that's Labour and the Tories. Doubling the number of MPs would be a more reasonable goal but even then, Im not convinced the huge Yes vote will translate to SNP votes. Expectations are already of a Labour collapse but their vote ALWAYS holds up in Westminster elections especially if it's tight - and by next Spring, the polls will be tight or show a Tory lead. I expect Scotland to revert to type and try "to keep the Tories out".

Isn't that the point though...once you achieve a certain critical mass FPTP starts to swing in your favour and you can end up winning a lot of seats.

[MacWalka]

I can't see the SNP doing anything major in 2015 to be honest. Although there was 45% voting Yes, this won't translate to SNP votes, turnout will be lower as well which I think will help the incumbents.

There is a potential to eat into certain big majorities though. Locally, in Airdrie, folk aren't happy with Pamela Nash, previous MPs here have included Helen Liddell and John Reid so are used to big profile MPs (however detestable they are). Alex Neil is the local MSP for Airdrie so the town has shown SNP voting tendancies.

In Coatbridge Tom Clarke is retiring and since he's been MP there since 1707, that will reduce the Labour majority significantly in my opinion. Also the town is massively Yes and proactive. I can't see it going to SNP due to the big majority for Labour but for the first time ever, there is a small chance of an upset. Labour got a very very poor reception in Coatbridge during the referendum.

[saintlyscot]

Under normal circumstances I agree it would be difficult for the snp to make much impact. The two things hugely in our favour are the likely closeness (coalition likely) of the election and the timetable which I think will be in chaos by spring. We should be able to play on these and make it a matter of trust. Only the snp can stand up for Scotland. Can you imagine the terror in Westminster if we get say 15 seats and potentially hold the balance of power?

[ShedTA]

I can't see the SNP doing anything major in 2015 to be honest. Although there was 45% voting Yes, this won't translate to SNP votes, turnout will be lower as well which I think will help the incumbents.

There is a potential to eat into certain big majorities though. Locally, in Airdrie, folk aren't happy with Pamela Nash, previous MPs here have included Helen Liddell and John Reid so are used to big profile MPs (however detestable they are). Alex Neil is the local MSP for Airdrie so the town has shown SNP voting tendancies.

In Coatbridge Tom Clarke is retiring and since he's been MP there since 1707, that will reduce the Labour majority significantly in my opinion. Also the town is massively Yes and proactive. I can't see it going to SNP due to the big majority for Labour but for the first time ever, there is a small chance of an upset. Labour got a very very poor reception in Coatbridge during the referendum.

I dont really get the first part here. The high turnout in the referendum actually helped the No vote in the end did it not? Surely if these people cant be bothered with the 2015 elections but the snp can keep the momentum going and convince their core to turn out will it not favour them?

[thplinth]

I just find it hard to believe that the SNP are going to win more seats in either parliament after losing the referendum. Opposition would do me fine for 5 years in Scotland.

[MacWalka]

I dont really get the first part here. The high turnout in the referendum actually helped the No vote in the end did it not? Surely if these people cant be bothered with the 2015 elections but the snp can keep the momentum going and convince their core to turn out will it not favour them?

Agreed, the high turnout helped the No vote because they felt the union was under threat and the full force of Westminster mobilised the support of the three Westminster parties. However, looking at the areas that voted Yes, these were traditional Labour heartlands but also had the lower turnouts of the referendum. When general election time comes, the turnout will be even lower and those that do come out to vote will be the ones who generally do vote and will probably vote the way they generally do.

Granted some Labour voters went for Yes (37% I believe) but there are some important questions we don't know the answers to yet. How many of these will vote in the general elections? How many will revert to type and vote Labour? How many will vote Labour to keep the Tories out? How many have converted to SNP? I think that Labour will have reduced majorities everywhere and will lose quite a few seats but given they have some massive majorities in these constituencies, it'll effectively take the SNP mobilising everyone who voted Yes to vote for SNP to really take out Labour and also hope that Lib Dem and Torie voters in Labour areas don't vote Labour to keep out the SNP.

[Squirrelhumper]

Glasgow East and Margaret Curran would be my number one priority.

I'd love to be at the count to see her lose her job.

[MacWalka]

I'd love to be at the count to see her lose her job.

I'm sure the screech emitted would make the Nazgul go crazy.

[saintlyscot]

In a tight election environment the huge problem for Cameron will be letting labour in Scotland take the credit if keeps to the timetable. That would be a huge risk and he will happily see labour suffer in Scotland And risk alienating scots no voters if it keeps him in Power. Political convenience will win the day. Between the scots situation, Barnet, ukip and regional devolution he has got a lot of cards in the air. Only a matter of time before they come crashing down.

[McDange]

Ian Davidson, Margaret Curran, Jim Murphy and both Alexanders. Would be a fine day in Scotland if they were all removed from political office.

I can't see SNP making the kind of gains Clyde1998 highlighted. So many people vote Labour on autopilot in Scotland under the impression that this keeps the Tories out - despite this being a load of pash. We also won't get anything like the turnout from the referendum.

All depends on the overall strategy when Sturgeon takes the reins

[Clyde1998]

Ian Davidson, Margaret Curran, Jim Murphy and both Alexanders. Would be a fine day in Scotland if they were all removed from political office.

I can't see SNP making the kind of gains Clyde1998 highlighted. So many people vote Labour on autopilot in Scotland under the impression that this keeps the Tories out - despite this being a load of pash. We also won't get anything like the turnout from the referendum.

All depends on the overall strategy when Sturgeon takes the reins

The poll I quoted reckoned that there would be a 15.7% swing from Labour to the SNP - and would be the largest national swing in ANY UK election (from what I can see).

I can dream though...

[thplinth]

I think maybe some people will not see the point of the SNP after the (cheated) No and revert to their former party. Really hard to predict now...I personally would welcome opposition because they will hurt themselves much more than we ever could in power. Being in power is an unpopular thing... the SNP have no advantage to it now for a while at least. We held to prove credibility but they chose the liars so now it is counter productive.

[stocky]

SNP should hold their 6 seats and gain 3-4 more, a wee pact with the greens and they will get their votes,

give the greens a clear run at Hillhead in return.and another one in Edinburgh ...

Target Inverclyde and West Dumbartonshire...

Why not give Lesley Riddoch , or some other Woman for Indy Candidate a free run at a seat somewhere... Elaine C Smith in the east end perhaps....

The SNP election machine, 70000 foot soldiers will knock a lot of doors and get the vote out...

The turnout will be lower but the %age of yes voters voting will be high

[Clyde1998]

SNP should hold their 6 seats and gain 3-4 more, a wee pact with the greens and they will get their votes,

give the greens a clear run at Hillhead in return.and another one in Edinburgh ...

Target Inverclyde and West Dumbartonshire...

Why not give Lesley Riddoch , or some other Woman for Indy Candidate a free run at a seat somewhere... Elaine C Smith in the east end perhaps....

The SNP election machine, 70000 foot soldiers will knock a lot of doors and get the vote out...

The turnout will be lower but the %age of yes voters voting will be high

Hopefully, the Greens won't run in Glasgow - giving the SNP a clear path to take a seat or two. Hopefully those yes supporting Labour voters will vote SNP next year.