Who Voted Yes & No

[giblet]

Here is the survey its full glory.

Scottish born, Catholics, Non religious people, Males, anyone under 50 Good guys.

http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/03/Scottish-Referendum-Study-27-March-2015.pdf

[Wine bibber]

So in the National Identity Section 11.4 % of Scots who did not recognise themselves in any way to be British voted to be British.Really ?

[exile]

Alex Massie's take on it

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/everything-yes-voters-believe-about-the-scottish-independence-referendum-is-wrong-but-that-doesnt-matter/

In short: Yes voters are deluded, but the Union could still be doomed.

[Wine bibber]

Oh well at least history will show that the majority of Scots did vote for independence after all..We can hold our heads up that little bit higher today.

[usainboltyarocket]

Here is the survey its full glory.

Scottish born, Catholics, Non religious people, Males, anyone under 50 Good guys.

http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/03/Scottish-Referendum-Study-27-March-2015.pdf

Cheers giblet.

[stocky]

Cameron would need either an overall majority of Tories or a coalition of Tories and UKIP to get a referendum, both of which seem unlikely.

That of course assumes that the Fibbers don't have enough MPs to form a coalition with the Tories or that if they do they don't back down on their word about not supporting a referendum...

You know, i really think the English people want a referendum on Europe and they will vote accordingly... The Tories will do better than a lot of people expect them too.. (92 election)

Where the shit will hit the fan is if we ie the Scottish, under the SNP ,stop this from happening. The Tories, UKIP etc get a large majority in England and we stop them forming a Govt...

They wont put up with being Governed the way we have over the years... If they vote Tory, they will want Tory .....

[stocky]

These polls we see are only the results in Englandshire.

and Cameron is polling higher in Scotland than Millyband.....

[bruce778]

Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland

But remember, 55-45 is "clear", "decisive" and "overwhelming"...

Did the snp not agree to the adjective "decisive" with respect to the result prior to the referendum ?

[TheReid]

Oh well at least history will show that the majority of Scots did vote for independence after all..We can hold our heads up that little bit higher today.

Never thought of it that way

[aaid]

Certain aspects of this survey have been bugging me for some time now, specifically the numbers relating to birth place, I can't see how if even a small majority of Scots born voters voted Yes, that could have meant that No won, purely on the basis that there are way more people who were born in Scotland than anywhere else.

I've back-tested these numbers using the 2011 census data for all people would have been 16 last September and would have been eligible to vote. I appreciate that this is not an exact comparison and I have made a couple assumptions*, however, i'm not trying to validate the actual referendum result, just this survey and so I think its valid in this context and factors such as turnout, etc., aren't relevant.

The Survey has figures as follows:

Outside UK 57.1% NO, 42.9% YES

Rest of UK 72.9% NO, 27.9% YES

Scotland 47.3%, NO, 52.7% YES

When you apply these numbers to the 2011 census data, it comes out with a very, very small win for NO, 50.4% to 49.6%.

Funnily enough if you transpose the numbers for Scots born, i.e. 52.7% no, 47.3% yes, funnily enough it comes out at the actual referendum result.

So either the people doing the survey have cocked up and got their numbers round the wrong way or people have been telling porky-pies to the survey.

Either way, I don't see how you can draw the conclusion that a majority of Scots born voters voted yes.

[Clyde1998]

Certain aspects of this survey have been bugging me for some time now, specifically the numbers relating to birth place, I can't see how if even a small majority of Scots born voters voted Yes, that could have meant that No won, purely on the basis that there are way more people who were born in Scotland than anywhere else.

I've back-tested these numbers using the 2011 census data for all people would have been 16 last September and would have been eligible to vote. I appreciate that this is not an exact comparison and I have made a couple assumptions*, however, i'm not trying to validate the actual referendum result, just this survey and so I think its valid in this context and factors such as turnout, etc., aren't relevant.

The Survey has figures as follows:

Outside UK 57.1% NO, 42.9% YES

Rest of UK 72.9% NO, 27.9% YES

Scotland 47.3%, NO, 52.7% YES

When you apply these numbers to the 2011 census data, it comes out with a very, very small win for NO, 50.4% to 49.6%.

Funnily enough if you transpose the numbers for Scots born, i.e. 52.7% no, 47.3% yes, funnily enough it comes out at the actual referendum result.

So either the people doing the survey have cocked up and got their numbers round the wrong way or people have been telling porky-pies to the survey.

Either way, I don't see how you can draw the conclusion that a majority of Scots born voters voted yes.

Your figures may take into account children who can't vote - there will be much more Scottish born-children in Scotland than any other place of birth.

[aaid]

Your figures may take into account children who can't vote - there will be much more Scottish born-children in Scotland than any other place of birth.

Census data breaks down by age. I took everyone from 15 and 50% of the 10-14s - anyone approx 12 1/2 on 1 April 2011 would have been eligible to vote in the referendum.

[min]

The part of this survey that doesn't stack up most is the gender split. 43.4% of females supposedly voted Yes as and 53.2% of males.

Assuming equal amounts of males and females voted (I realise this wont be exact), the average Yes percentage would be 48.3% - as opposed to the actual 44.7%.

[usainboltyarocket]

The part of this survey that doesn't stack up most is the gender split. 43.4% of females supposedly voted Yes as and 53.2% of males.

Assuming equal amounts of males and females voted (I realise this wont be exact), the average Yes percentage would be 48.3% - as opposed to the actual 44.7%.

More women live in Scotland than men.

That's why road rage levels are so high.

[glasgow jock]

Aside from what the Liecord has reported, I had head that a lot of foreign immigrants from the former Communist bloc such as Poland and Lithuania had voted no. Always felt that to be odd considering what these people had to go through to finally gain their freedom in their homeland. Perhaps scared by the lies and propaganda spouted by BT and MSM?

Know quite a few Poles through work, & all of them voted No (found that odd tbh)

[aaid]

Know quite a few Poles through work, & all of them voted No (found that odd tbh)

Probably thought they would be deported in the event of a Yes vote.

That was one of the more disgusting scare stories.

[FuNsTeR]

Probably thought they would be deported in the event of a Yes vote.

That was one of the more disgusting scare stories.

they'll face being deported if the UK votes to leave the UK if the referendum is held in 2016/17 ... they will have 1 of 2 options go home or vote for Scottish independence within the EU

[Flora MaDonald]

Probably thought they would be deported in the event of a Yes vote.

That was one of the more disgusting scare stories.

....and to think, it would've been easier for them to drive on the right.

[aaid]

they'll face being deported if the UK votes to leave the UK if the referendum is held in 2016/17 ... they will have 1 of 2 options go home or vote for Scottish independence within the EU

What is even more laughable about this scaremongering is that even in the event that the UK voted to leave the EU, it is virtually guaranteed that any EU citizen resident in the UK at that time would be granted leave to remain, if not British Citizenship.

[giblet]

the non UK citizens who voted No obviously wanted to keep options open of moving to Ruk without any potential problems scaremongered by the No campaign during the referendum. You can see why they would have done that.

[Toepoke]

Know quite a few Poles through work, & all of them voted No (found that odd tbh)

Scaremongering aside, if you've moved to the UK with no affinity to Scotland you're going to likely vote for the option which offers least upheaval...

[PASTA Mick]

I believe a lot of dead people voted no. By post.

[thewelk]

Know quite a few Poles through work, & all of them voted No (found that odd tbh)

I find it odd that they would even vote. If there was a vote now to separate the north of France from the south I wouldn't go anywhere near it.

[aaid]

Scaremongering aside, if you've moved to the UK with no affinity to Scotland you're going to likely vote for the option which offers least upheaval...

As an expat, I didn't have a vote and I'm completely comfortable with that, however it never really sat well with me that "temporary" residents had a vote, regardless of how they voted.

By that I mean people who in their own mind are only resident if for the short term.

I can't see any way that you could legislate for it but to me it's morally dubious for someone to cast a vote that has such a fundamental impact on a country far beyond the period they see themselves living there.

[thewelk]

As an expat, I didn't have a vote and I'm completely comfortable with that, however it never really sat well with me that "temporary" residents had a vote, regardless of how they voted.

By that I mean people who in their own mind are only resident if for the short term.

I can't see any way that you could legislate for it but to me it's morally dubious for someone to cast a vote that has such a fundamental impact on a country far beyond the period they see themselves living there.

For the ones that did vote (which surely can't be a huge proportion of them...unless someone decided they should all be 'postals') they probably just suffer from that self preserving selfish c**t bug that a lot of our homegrown unionist friends suffer from. Edited April 15, 2015 by thewelk