How The Referendum Was Won

[Scunnered]

A second referendum in any parties 2016 manifesto would be a losing one. Using a No vote in the EU ref as grounds for a second indyref really should backfire... But it won't.

[Ally Bongo]

A second referendum in any parties 2016 manifesto would be a losing one. Using a No vote in the EU ref as grounds for a second indyref really should backfire... But it won't.

On your 2nd one i agree 100% and have tweeted the SNP and Nicola to that effect. Need to have a new strategy on Europe after what we seen happening to Greece ..and fast.

On your first i would have agreed up to today until i heard an ex SNP advisor's point on Radio Scotland around 4.40pm

He basically said that the SNP wont call another referendum until they are sure they can win but then stated the following;

1 - The second biggest party in Scotland are in turmoil not to mention the whole of the UK and are seen as a laughing stock which could increase as their leadership contest continues and after who they eventually side with (assuming not Corbyn)

2 - The Tories are being seen to be the ideological rats with every passing day and we are soon to feel the full force of austerity

3 - SNP are riding high in the polls, have over 100,000 members and are going to walk the 2016 elections

4 - As recently as 2012 support for Independence was only at 28% or something along those lines and in 2 years they got it up to 45%. Its still sitting at 45-48% just now so who's to say they cant increase that along similar lines in another campaign

So - if the next 12-18 months is not a good time to call it - when is ?

Edited July 27, 2015 by Ally Bongo

[Return of Yermaw]

That was the most galling part of the currency argument.

The problem is that all existing Yes voters would have been convinced of that fact. The bottom line is that not enough was done to convince swithering No voters that would be the case.

It amazed me that so many "no" voters took a very obvious politically charged utterance as complete fact. Politicians lie, contradict and change their positions all the time and most voters are aware of this. However Osbourne's utterance were jumped on as set in stone when a fairer assessment for the reasonably minded would have been that it was uttered for a political reason and if there had been a "yes" vote, he and the UK Govt would revisit their stance. I believe therefore that the currency issued was seized on by the ditherers and if the currency issue is stronger in favour of YES at any subsequent referendum, these ditherers (who vote SNP, and fancy Scotland being independent but at the end of the day are just too feart) will readily jump on another contentious highly publicised issue to give them a reason to justify voting NO.

[Scunnered]

On your 2nd one i agree 100% and have tweeted the SNP and Nicola to that effect. Need to have a new strategy on Europe after what we seen happening to Greece ..and fast.

On your first i would have agreed up to today until i heard an ex SNP advisor's point on Radio Scotland around 4.40pm

He basically said that the SNP wont call another referendum until they are sure they can win but then stated the following;

1 - The second biggest party in Scotland are in turmoil not to mention the whole of the UK and are seen as a laughing stock which could increase as their leadership contest continues and after who they eventually side with (assuming not Corbyn)

2 - The Tories are being seen to be the ideological rats with every passing day and we are soon to feel the full force of austerity

3 - SNP are riding high in the polls, have over 100,000 members and are going to walk the 2016 elections

4 - As recently as 2012 support for Independence was only at 28% or something along those lines and in 2 years they got it up to 45%. Its still sitting at 45-48% just now so who's to say they cant increase that along similar lines in another campaign

So - if the next 12-18 months is not a good time to call it - when is ?

If a young friend of mine who is a policy adviser (scum) and researcher for the SNP is to be believed, the SNP won't call another referendum until opinion polls show 60%+ in favour... Which would be wise imo. I obviously can't speak for others but a second defeat in such a short period of time would be highly embarrassing and I reckon it would be the end of the road for many.

[Ally Bongo]

If a young friend of mine who is a policy adviser (scum) and researcher for the SNP is to be believed, the SNP won't call another referendum until opinion polls show 60%+ in favour... Which would be wise imo. I obviously can't speak for others but a second defeat in such a short period of time would be highly embarrassing and I reckon it would be the end of the road for many.

Have to agree despite hearing the fella's arguments

Patience is the key and unfortunately we need to embrace & suffer as much of the Tory ideology until the straw breaks the camels back

[Rossy]

All the other events that people think will trigger a Yes vote.....a Tory government, EU exit, Labour chaos, austerity, SNP landslides......are irrelevant.

A Yes vote depends on 2 things....the economy, and the currency.

The Yes side MUST find a cohesive and persuasive economic argument, and a watertight plan for Scotland's currency.

Without these, we'll never be independent.

[Ally Bongo]

The austerity loving Brit Nats celebrate as Dave rules out a second referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/27/david-cameron-rule-out-second-scottish-independence-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Edited July 27, 2015 by Ally Bongo

[Rossy]

The austerity loving Brit Nats celebrate as Dave rules out a second referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/27/david-cameron-rule-out-second-scottish-independence-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw

Cameron's doing the SNP a favour here. Another referendum without a credible economic/currency policy would be a disaster.

The SNP should be careful though of not falling into the trap of always saying 'black', just because Cameron says 'white'....they have to resist the urge to react just because Cameron says something.

I'm sure that Nicola knows that though.

[Caledonian Craig]

Westminster policies are poisonous. That coupled with Cameron's leadership mistakes and perhaps leading to another war (against IS) will persuade more people that remaining in the union led by people alien to us and those waiverers who voted no will be converted. How I see it is that yes voters are steadfast in their beliefs so waiverers aren't there to any great degree but those that voted no there are more (much more) waiverers to be swayed. However, lets not be too over eager. If the SNP has any sense they'll be working on issues they never quite got right last time such as currency, NHS etc and working to create a stronger and more watertight model for independence with no holes for unionists to pick holes in.

My message sit tight - independence is a question of when not if.

[Toepoke]

I'm sure that Nicola knows that though.

It's a fairly safe assumption that Nicola Sturgeon is not daft. There will be no second referendum until, as mentioned, the result is an absolute formality.

The problem then will be getting the UK to agree to hold it. Similar to the position Catalunya finds itself in with the Spanish government...

[Auld_Reekie]

Currency is the big hurdle. Can't go again until that is addressed. And even then, I expect public opinion to be pretty difficult for a while after it's put out there when we re-run the Standard Life debate over and over, but amplified considerably by the Unionist media.

We're still some way off 55% never mind 60%, before we can even think about going again.

[Haggis_trap]

The only scenario I can see a 2nd referendum in immediate future is if Scotland were removed from EU against its will.

Currency is the big issue. But with the EU on board and entry to euro currency pre-negotiated then much of the uncertainty would be gone. The "2017 scenario" be a very different debate - as I assume the EU would want Scotland as members if UK voted to exit.

Though I agree with comments above - lets not rush it.....

Edited July 28, 2015 by Haggis_trap

[MacWalka]

The only scenario I can see a 2nd referendum in immediate future is if Scotland were removed from EU against its will.

Currency is the big issue. But with the EU on board and entry to euro currency pre-negotiated then much of the uncertainty would be gone. The "2017 scenario" be a very different debate - as I assume the EU would want Scotland as members if UK voted to exit.

Though I agree with comments above - lets not rush it.....

I think it's becoming less and less likely that Scotland will vote as massively in favour for the EU in the referendum as many folk think. I also think the Euro is big no-no and I'd be split between being in the UK or independent and use the Euro.

[scotlad]

I wouldn't touch the Euro with a shitey stick. It has the same downside as a CU with rUK, i.e. we'd be surrendering control of monetary policy, with the added downside of being tied to a less stable currency.

The question is, how do we convince people that a Scottish currency will be any stronger?

I also think Sturgeon is overestimating how keen people are to stay in the EU. Even if we were 'dragged out against out will', I am not convinced people in Scotland feel passionately enough about the EU to vote for independence from the UK to regain our place in the community.

[Flora MaDonald]

All very eloquent ways of saying - shitebags.

[Scunnered]

Cove Sheep was telling me today that the SSP will have UDI in their manifesto... An awful idea, but will probably get a lot of votes from nutjobs!

[Auld_Reekie]

I also think Sturgeon is overestimating how keen people are to stay in the EU. Even if we were 'dragged out against out will', I am not convinced people in Scotland feel passionately enough about the EU to vote for independence from the UK to regain our place in the community.

Agreed. I don't think they are necessarily over-estimating it, just highlighting what will, theoretically, be the most acute democratic crisis to date - a definite material change. That said, especially after the Greece debacle, it could be very close and I can't say with confidence Scotland will vote that differently to rUK. I wouldn't be surprised if behind closed doors, the SNP weren't actually expecting the EU referendum to give them an opportunity. Going to be red faces if Scotland somehow votes No and rUK votes Yes. :/

Cove Sheep was telling me today that the SSP will have UDI in their manifesto... An awful idea, but will probably get a lot of votes from nutjobs!

UDI is absolutely mental, confirming parties like the SSP will be forever unelectable in any shape or form.

[Marky]

I always thought a UDI was a scratch/cut/bruise etc you woke up with after a particularly heavy night on the bevvy?

[ParisInAKilt]

I always thought a UDI was a scratch/cut/bruise etc you woke up with after a particularly heavy night on the bevvy?

That's a UTI . .

Edited July 28, 2015 by ParisInAKilt

[Marky]

That's a UTI . .

I was thinking Unidentified Drinking Injury.

Does your version only apply when bevvying in Germany? Unidentified Trinken Injury?

[weekevie04]

It's quite a clever policy from the SSP (if they are to back UDI).What harm can it actually do? The last I checked they only have 1 councillor in the whole of Scotland! It may attract some of the socialist Yes/soft SNP supporters who don't want to vote SNP on the list, and aren't attracted to the Greens.

It's a long time til May, but I have a feeling that the SNP may well win another majority and the Greens won't make anything like the 10+ MSPs some polls had predicted.

We'll see I suppose.

Edited July 29, 2015 by weekevie04

[Scunnered]

It's quite a clever policy from the SSP (if they are to back UDI). It may attract some of the socialist Yes/soft SNP supporters who don't want to vote SNP on the list, and aren't attracted to the Greens.

It's a long time til May, but I have a feeling that the SNP may well win another majority and the Greens won't make anything like the 10+ MSPs some polls had predicted.

We'll see I suppose.

One hopes not to see an SNP majority, they were a much better government in a minority where they could be kept honest. An SNP minority would be desirable.

[MacWalka]

One hopes not to see an SNP majority, they were a much better government in a minority where they could be kept honest. An SNP minority would be desirable.

Agreed. Salmond's quote after the last Holyrood election that they would try to foster consensus and do not have a monopoly on wisdom was only half right.

[Dave78]

One hopes not to see an SNP majority, they were a much better government in a minority where they could be kept honest. An SNP minority would be desirable.

This is something i was thinking about recently. I think most people would agree that the SNP did its best work in their first term in office, but was that because they were being "kept honest" by minority government, or because they were able to pick the low hanging fruit (the popular policies like tuition fees, elderly care, bus passes, bridge tolls etc.) that the Labour branch office were forbidden from touching by their London masters?

Edited July 29, 2015 by Dave78

[jimbers]

It appears to have happened the other way round.

Deecie you are family to us!