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Daily Swing Towards Yes


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Those YouGov polls revealed in the last month have shown an average of a 0.63% swing to the yes campaign daily. Let's take the swing from the 15th August poll to the 1st September poll (0.46% daily swing towards yes or yes increase 0.23% per day).

1st Sep - 46.8% yes

2nd - 47.0%

3rd - 47.3%

4th - 47.5%

5th - 47.7%

6th - 48.0%

7th - 48.2%

8th - 48.4%

9th - 48.7%

10th - 48.9%

11th - 49.2%

12th - 49.4%

13th - 49.6%

14th - 49.9%

15th - 50.1%

16th - 50.3%

17th - 50.6%

18th - 50.8%

If the current rate of swing towards the yes campaign continues, the yes campaign will win by 0.8%.

Of course daily swing can rapidly change, but we can hope it doesn't... ;)

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Those YouGov polls revealed in the last month have shown an average of a 0.63% swing to the yes campaign daily. Let's take the swing from the 15th August poll to the 1st September poll (0.46% daily swing towards yes or yes increase 0.23% per day).

1st Sep - 46.8% yes

2nd - 47.0%

3rd - 47.3%

4th - 47.5%

5th - 47.7%

6th - 48.0%

7th - 48.2%

8th - 48.4%

9th - 48.7%

10th - 48.9%

11th - 49.2%

12th - 49.4%

13th - 49.6%

14th - 49.9%

15th - 50.1%

16th - 50.3%

17th - 50.6%

18th - 50.8%

If the current rate of swing towards the yes campaign continues, the yes campaign will win by 0.8%.

Of course daily swing can rapidly change, but we can hope it doesn't... ;)

That is a simple extrapolation and takes no account of the effect of momentum.

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we will have a bigger turnout then "No" - I think this is looking comfortable...

This is key to the whole campaign. From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote.

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This is key to the whole campaign. From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote.

This is probably the reason I think Yes will win. I think there are probably more Nos out there, but their turnout will be lower, handing it to yes.

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I think No will skoosh the postal vote though...

Exactly, it's good to have a couple of days where the momentum feels great but I think Yes could do with re-asserting focus. Lot of back slapping going on and high fiving but if, and I accept it's an if, if the polls are right and No are still in front, we've still got a massive job on our hands. We also need to win convincingly so that there is room for a disaster, or jiggery pokery, or last minute nerves from soft Yes's. People quickly changing to Yes can quickly change back to No.

Need to keep on the front foot and put a power of work in the next week or so.

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I think No will skoosh the postal vote though...

canvassing in leafy west Edinburgh in the last few days doesnt show a large No in postal vote, albeit on a small sample. Its overwhelmingly oder people who have already voted - but I would say a small advantage for No in that group, but nothing to panic about so far... .

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Exactly, it's good to have a couple of days where the momentum feels great but I think Yes could do with re-asserting focus. Lot of back slapping going on and high fiving

Presumably, the sight of an over-confident First Minister prematurely predicting victory would be a sure way of getting the 'no' vote out...

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From people I've spoken to, I wouldn't be surprised if many NO voters didn't bother going out to the polls whereas YES are more likely to vote.

This is a line I'd love to believe, but I just can't. Older people (more likely to vote No, by most accounts) have a good track record of getting out and voting.

What am I missing? Which Nos won't bother?

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This is a line I'd love to believe, but I just can't. Older people (more likely to vote No, by most accounts) have a good track record of getting out and voting.

What am I missing? Which Nos won't bother?

Soft Noes. Those whose default position is "Ach, I suppose I'm a no".

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