Clyde1998 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 (edited) ComRes poll of the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs in Scotland. Overall Results: SNP - 43% Labour - 37% Conservatives - 13% Greens - 2% UKIP - 2% Lib Dems - 2% Edited March 31, 2015 by Clyde1998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Just a 1000 sample size, was hoping to see a breakdown by constituency, but not surprised they didn't with the sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Just a 1000 sample size, was hoping to see a breakdown by constituency, but not surprised they didn't with the sample size. I thought it would show each constituency. Shame it doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenAngus Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 STV news had it as 29/11 seats then 10 minutes later the ITV news had it as 28/12. Only 1 seat difference but from the same poll ????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Yeah, it's a valid poll but constituency by constituency won't be accurate. That kind of swing in just the Labour held seats is significant though. National vote likely to be slightly higher for SNP so still looking at mid-40s in seats I think going by polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Yeah, it's a valid poll but constituency by constituency won't be accurate. That kind of swing in just the Labour held seats is significant though. National vote likely to be slightly higher for SNP so still looking at mid-40s in seats I think going by polling. Absolutely. I wasn't question the validity of the poll, its on par with every other poll. When I heard the news this morning that there was a poll spanning 40 seats I'd hoped for a large sample with a breakdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 STV news had it as 29/11 seats then 10 minutes later the ITV news had it as 28/12. Only 1 seat difference but from the same poll ????? Maybe ITV were using the unrounded numbers and STV were using the rounded numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 ComRes summary for anyone not seen it yet: In the first of its kind, a new ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has focused in on the 40 Labour-held seats in Scotland, revealing a massive 19-point swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party. On a uniform swing, this would hand the SNP control of around 28 seats currently held by Labour. Slide1 In more positive news for the Labour Party, voters in these seats are much more likely to want Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister (49%) than David Cameron (29%). SNP voters are even more strongly opposed to David Cameron, with only 19% wanting to see him as Prime Minister. While voters in these Labour-held seats are split about the best approach for the SNP to take in the event of a hung parliament, they lean towards helping Labour more than the Conservatives. No formal agreement (41%) is the most likely preference, followed by supporting a minority Labour government (21%) or joining a formal coalition with Labour (also 21%). Supporters of Scottish independence are significantly more likely than opponents to want the SNP to enter into an agreement with Labour. Turning to voter intention, its clear that voting is heavily influenced by the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. 81% of Yes voters say they will vote SNP, while only 8% of No voters say the same. The SNP have made significant headway in these once staunchly Labour seats, winning 30% of people who voted Labour in 2010. Labour remain ahead among those aged 55 and over (44% voting Labour versus 36% SNP), but the SNP are now well ahead among younger voters aged 18-34 years (46% SNP, 32% Labour) and 35-54 year olds (48% SNP, 33% Labour). When considering whether to vote SNP or not, the main reason for voting for the party is wanting Scotland to be an independent country (56%), followed by feeling that Labour no longer represents people like me (35%). Nearly a third (30%) cite broken promises on devolution. On the other hand, 56% say they are voting for a party other than the SNP because they want to keep Scotland as part of the UK. 33% of non-SNP voters are influenced by a desire to avoid a Conservative-led government in Westminster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 ComRes poll of the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland - Labour would be left with 12 MPs in Scotland. Any idea who?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Alex Massie weighs in. I enjoy his writing with a Latte or Mocha. http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/a-shocking-scottish-opinion-poll-reveals-that-labour-arent-dead-yet/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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